Abstract: With the continuous acceleration of urbanization in China, the contradiction between urban traffic supply and demand is increasingly prominent, and the problem of traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious. Therefore, various policies and measures have been implemented in various parts of China to alleviate traffic congestion. Taking Beijing as an example, aiming at the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion, from the perspective of system, this article uses the approach of integrating system dynamics and grey Verhulst prediction (SD-VF) to construct an urban traffic congestion model, and the Vensim software is used for dynamic simulation analysis to explore the influence of policies and measures on urban ecological carrying capacity and road ecological carrying capacity from the economic, social, environmental and other aspects. The results show that although the traffic restriction policy can improve the ecological carrying capacity of roads to some extent, it may also lead to the “paradox” effect. The policy of road repair has not fundamentally solved the problem of urban traffic congestion, but merely postponed the congestion; compared with a single policy, combining the development of public transportation with the policy of restricting traffic can effectively alleviate traffic congestion, improve air quality and improve environmental carrying capacity, which is a more scientific and reasonable policy measure.

Key words: system dynamics, grey Verhulst theory, vehicle restriction policy, road traffic capacity

摘要： 随着我国城市化进程不断加快,城市交通供需矛盾日益突出,交通拥堵问题愈发严重,我国各地纷纷实行各种政策措施来缓解交通拥堵。本文以北京市为例,针对城市交通拥堵的现象,从系统的角度出发,运用系统动力学与灰色Verhulst预测相结合的方法(SD-VF),建立城市交通治堵模型,并采用Vensim软件对模型进行动态仿真分析,从经济、社会、环境等方面探究政策措施对城市环境生态承载力、道路生态承载力等的影响。研究结果表明,限行限号政策虽然在一定程度上提高道路生态承载力,但也可能引发“悖论”效应;修路政策并没有根本上解决城市交通拥堵问题,仅仅是把拥堵状况向后推迟;而相对于单一政策,将发展公共交通与限行政策相结合可以有效缓解交通拥堵,改善空气质量,提升环境承载力,是更加科学合理的政策措施。

关键词: 系统动力学, 灰色Verhulst预测, 限行政策, 道路交通承载力