Abstract: During the development of large oilfields, the geological reserves structure has changed with the continuous investment of different types of new reserves, and the key indicators that characterize the overall development technology and economic effect of the oilfield, such as production, recoverable reserves, recovery ratio, and reserve-production ratio, development costs, operating costs, etc. have also changed, and the law of change can be described with a set of mathematical models. Based on the forecast of development indicators, the optimization of new production blocks is conducted using the multi-attribute decision-making methods. The application example shows that the method is practical and highly maneuverable, and can provide an important method for the prediction of technical and economic indicators, the optimization of used reserves, and the development and investment decision-making. Finally, we give suggestions of giving priority to the development of integrated, fault-block and special lithological reservoirs, developing low-permeability tight reservoirs low-cost development technology, and promoting water flooding and heavy oil reservoir management and technological innovation are given.

Key words: geological reserve structure, development index prediction, multi-attribute decision-making, block combination plan

摘要： 大型油田开发过程中,随着不同类型新储量的不断投入,地质储量结构发生变化,表征油田整体开发技术与经济效果的关键性指标,如产量、可采储量、采收率、储采比、开发成本与操作成本等等也随之改变,其变化规律可用一套数学模型来描述。在开发指标预测基础上,运用多属性决策方法如TOPSIS,可以实现新投产区块组合方案的优选。应用实例表明,本文方法实用、操作性强,可以为油区开发决策提供重要方法与手段。

关键词: 地质储量结构, 开发指标预测, 多属性决策, 区块组合方案