Abstract: The performance of critical chain project buffer monitoring and control is affected by the characteristics of the activity itself and the activity executor. The project manager should monitor the activities differently according to different activity executors. However, the research has not fully considered the heterogeneity of the activity executors. Firstly, this paper allocates buffer according to the network complexity, risk perception and the comprehensive trust of the activity executor. Secondly, it introduces fault tolerance mechanism to set different trigger points for different activities, and divides the buffer monitoring and control into trust based and supervision based buffer monitoringand control. Finally, according to the buffer consumption of activity, different methods of dynamic rolling monitoringand control are applied to different activities. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that this method can effectively reduce the error warning, ensure the completion of the project and realize the comprehensive optimization of the project.

Key words: buffer allocation, fault tolerance mechanism, trust, monitoring and control trigger point, buffer differential monitoring and control

摘要： 关键链项目缓冲监控绩效受活动自身和活动执行主体特性的双重影响,项目经理应根据不同执行主体对活动进行差别监控,而现有缓冲监控研究未充分考虑活动执行主体异质性。首先,结合网络复杂度和风险感知等活动自身因素以及综合信任度等执行主体层面因素对缓冲进行分配;其次,引入容错机制对不同活动触发点进行差别设置,并将缓冲监控分为信任型和监督型两类监控模式;最后,根据活动缓冲消耗对不同活动进行差别动态监控。蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明,本文方法能够有效降低错误预警,保证项目按计划执行并实现对项目的综合优化。

关键词: 缓冲分配, 容错机制, 信任, 监控触发点, 缓冲差别监控