Abstract: Uncertainty of logistics service market would influence logistics service level and profits of logistics service supply chain(LSSC). In the case of considering stochastic instant procurement price and the differences between normal investment cost and emergency investment cost of basic logistics service provider(BLSP), option mechanism is introduced to study the optimization decisions of LSSC under uncertain market environment in order to improve the supply chain flexibility and to decrease the risks caused by market uncertainty. The mathematical option contact models of BLSP and logistics service integrator(LSI) are built. Stackelberg game theory and optimization methods are employed to analyze and obtain LSI’s optimal procurement decisions of option ordering and instant ordering as well as BLSP’s logistics capability investment policy. The results show that instant procurement price and emergency investment cost have effects on the policies of LSI and BLSP. Finally, the influences of the variability of instant purchase price on optimal logistics capability investment value of BLSP and optimal option quantity of LSI and profits of both are examined by numerical analyses.

Key words: supply chain management, optimal policies, option contract, logistics service supply chain, instant procurement price

摘要： 物流服务市场的不确定性会影响物流服务供应链的服务水平和收益。在考虑随机即时采购价格以及基础物流提供商在正常情况和应急情况下具有不同物流能力投资成本的情形下,引入期权机制研究不确定市场环境下物流服务供应链的优化决策,以提高物流服务供应链柔性和降低市场不确定性带来的风险。构建物流服务供应链的期权契约模型,采用Stackelberg博弈理论和优化算法分析和求得物流服务集成商的最优期权采购和即时采购策略,以及基础物流提供商的最优物流能力投资策略。结果表明即时采购价格将影响基础物流提供商和物流服务集成商的决策。最后通过数值分析研究即时采购价格的不确定程度对物流服务集成商和提供商的优化策略和利润的影响。

关键词: 供应链管理, 优化决策, 期权契约, 物流服务供应链, 即时采购价格