Table of Content

25 April 2016, Volume 25 Issue 2

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Online Quota Nomadic Traveling Salesman Problem

WU Teng-yu, XU Yin-feng

2016, 25(2):  1-6.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0037

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Due to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, routing of the emergency vehicles after disaster is gaining extensive attention, and emergency vehicles transporting emergency materials to affected points as soon as possible seem very important. This paper considers the situation that the emergency vehicle has finite capacity and the emergency vehicle is nomadic. We analyze online quota nomadic TSP. We give the lower bounds of the problem, when metric space is positive half-line, and WTAIB algorithm is presented. For general metric space, WSB algorithm is presented, and competitive analysis is given for these two algorithms respectively.

Study of Enterprise’s R&D Organization Communication Network and Its Optimization Strategy

SHENG Yong-xiang, WANG Xu-na, WU Jie

2016, 25(2):  7-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0038

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In view of the importance of realizing technological information sharing efficiently and cost effectively among enterprise R&D organization internal communication network, this paper mainly is focused on the measurement of communication effect on enterprise R&D organization internal communication network and its countermeasures for improving it. It first introduces the structure holes measuring algorithm, and improves the intermediate centricity algorithm. Secondly it analyzes the structure holes among a R&D organization communication network in a certain enterprise, and points out the correlation between informal communication network and professional communication network. Then it confirms the effectiveness of this weighted algorithm by comparing the similarity of improved center algorithm, traditional center algorithm and the constrain index. At last, it puts forward a “bridging” strategy aimed at weakening the monopoly position of “core people” in communication networks. The study finds that the structure holes measuring algorithm also applies to the measurement of structure holes among weighted communication network, confirms the effectiveness of this weighted algorithm, and then gives countermeasures for promoting technical information sharing among organizations by adjusting informal organizations.

Coordinating a Multi-Period Supply Chain for Deteriorating Items Based on Revenue Sharing Contract

BAI Qing-guo, XU Jian-teng, ZHANG Yu-zhong

2016, 25(2):  15-23.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0039

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The paper considers the coordination problem of a one-supplier and one-retailer supply chain with deteriorating items in a finite planning horizon. The market demand is assumed to be simultaneously influenced by many factors and the demand rate is formulated as a multi-variable continuous function with respect to selling price, on-hand inventory level and time. Two mathematical models for the centralized system and the decentralized system are formulated and the optimal decision variables, including the number of replenishments, the selling price and the wholesale price are obtained for each model. Compared with the decentralized system, the total profit can be increased with at least one-third under the centralized system. Hence, a revenue sharing contract is used to coordinate the supply chain and the value range of revenue sharing parameter to achieve the perfect channel coordination is obtained. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the theoretical results, and sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters is also performed.

Contract Coordination of Two-stage E-commerce Supply Chain Under the Demand Forecast with Information Updating

LI Jian, SHI Hao

2016, 25(2):  24-35.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0040

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This paper develops a supply chain model with the two-stage of B2C and C2B in life cycle under demand forecast with information updating based on Bayesian and the result shows that the single contract cannot coordinate the supply chain. The coordination mechanism of supply chain with price discount contract of supplier and commitment order of retailer are designed on the bases, and it proves that two-stage supply chain coordination mechanism can realize the Pareto improvement. A numerical example shows the effectiveness of the two-stage contract coordination mechanism, and the supply chain contract parameters to achieve perfect coordination are not always in the Pareto collection; the Nash equilibrium between retailer and supplier is achieved through negotiation because of the different optimal contract parameters.

Optimal Policies of Logistics Service Supply Chain with Instant Procurement Price

WANG Zhi-hong, SHAO Qi-ming, WANG Xiao-feng

2016, 25(2):  36-39.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0041

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Uncertainty of logistics service market would influence logistics service level and profits of logistics service supply chain(LSSC). In the case of considering stochastic instant procurement price and the differences between normal investment cost and emergency investment cost of basic logistics service provider(BLSP), option mechanism is introduced to study the optimization decisions of LSSC under uncertain market environment in order to improve the supply chain flexibility and to decrease the risks caused by market uncertainty. The mathematical option contact models of BLSP and logistics service integrator(LSI) are built. Stackelberg game theory and optimization methods are employed to analyze and obtain LSI’s optimal procurement decisions of option ordering and instant ordering as well as BLSP’s logistics capability investment policy. The results show that instant procurement price and emergency investment cost have effects on the policies of LSI and BLSP. Finally, the influences of the variability of instant purchase price on optimal logistics capability investment value of BLSP and optimal option quantity of LSI and profits of both are examined by numerical analyses.

Order and Sale-promotion Competition Between Two SCs and Coordination Within SC Based on CVaR Criterion

XU Bing, LIU Lu, JIA Yan-li

2016, 25(2):  40-48.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0042

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This paper studies the effet of the decision-maker’s risk-aversion degree and the problem of supply chain(SC)coordination when two SCs compete each other. Considering two SCs competition in order-quantity and sale-promotion, where each SC consists of one risk-neutral manufacturer and one risk-averse retailer and offers one kind substitutable products, this paper sets up EPEC(Equilibrium Problems with Equilibrium Constrains), Nash and MPEC (Mathematical Program with Equilibrium Constrains)decision models to respectively characterize the competition between two decentralized SCs(DD mode)or two centralized SCs(II mode)or one decentralized SC and one centralized SC(DI mode)by using CVaR method and game theory. The equilibrium decisions under three modes are obtained. One buy-back plus promotion subsidy contract is put forward to coordinate one single SC with risk-averse retailer. Furthernore, supply chain competition is studied when retailers are risk-neutral. The example demonstrates the reasonability of the proposed models and feasibility of the coordinative contracts. The study shows that the higher retailer’s sale-promotion is, the less he orders. The higher the ratio of qualified products is, the more the retailer’s sale-promotion is. SC coordination is one dominant strategy under SC competition.

Evaluation of Linear Topology Wireless Sensor Network’s Reliability Using Improved Universal Generating Function Method

LIU Qiang, MA Yan-bo

2016, 25(2):  49-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0043

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This paper proposes an improved universal generating function(UGF)algorithm oriented sensing data fusion and uses it to evaluate the reliability of linear topology wireless sensor network. Firstly, a two-way continuous k out of n: F system model is established according to WSN topology and data transmission under PEGASIS protocol. Then, sensor node’s universal generating function and composition operator are redefined according to the characteristic of data transmission and data fusion in WSN. Finally, the two-way continuous k out of n: F model is divided into two unidirectional models, and the reliability of two-way continuous k out of n: F model can be calculated by composing the reliability of two unidirectional models. An example is presented to test the proposed improved algorithm. The results show that the improved algorithm can effectively solve the problem of wireless sensor network reliability evaluation.

On Clan Games with Interval Payoffs

ZHOU Yi-yuan, ZHANG Qiang

2016, 25(2):  57-62.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0044

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Clan games with interval payoffs are studied. In such games, players are divided into two classes: one is clan members who have veto power, and the other is non-clan members who are powerless. In the interval core, the maximum allocation of a non-clan member is his marginal interval contribution to the grand coalition. A necessary and sufficient condition for total clan interval games is presented. Population monotonic interval allocation schemes and bi-monotonic interval allocation schemes are introduced for total clan interval games. If the interval subtractions are well defined, then the interval core elements of total clan interval games are both population monotonic interval allocation schemes extendable and bi-monotonic interval allocation schemes extendable. An example shows the validity of this model.

Linguistic Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making Method Based on 2-Tuple Linguistic TAC Integral Operator

SUO Wei-lan

2016, 25(2):  63-70.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0045

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With regard to fuzzy interdependences among attributes in the problem on linguistic multiple attribute group decision making, a 2-tuple linguistic TAC(Two-Additive Choquet)integral operator is defined. Some desirable properties are analyzed and proved. Then, a corresponding decision making method is proposed. In the method, attribute weight information, attribute interdependence information and attribute evaluation information provided by experts are transformed from linguistic terms into 2-tuple linguistics. Using the 2-tuple linguistic TAC integral operator, the transformed information on attributes can be aggregated as evaluation values on alternatives from each expert. Furthermore, the overall evaluation values on alternatives are obtained to determine alternative ranking by aggregating experts’ opinions. Finally, real case analysis and method comparison are given to illustrate the validity and advantages of the proposed method. The research results show that the proposed method has several advantages in the aspect of detailed description on attribute interdependence, simple computation process without information loss and decision result with strong interpretability. It also provides a new tool for solving linguistic multiple attribute group decision making problems with fuzzy interdependences among attributes.

Multi-period Mean-absolute Deviation Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Model with Entropy Constraints

ZHANG Peng, ZHANG Wei-guo, ZENG Yu-ting

2016, 25(2):  71-77.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0046

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This paper considers a multi-period fuzzy portfolio selection problem maximizing the terminal wealth imposed by risk control, in which risk of assets and the divergence measure of portfolio are, respectively, measured by fuzzy absolute deviation and proportion entropy. Based on the theories of possibility theory, the proposed model is transformed into a crisp nonlinear programming problem. Because of the transaction costs, the multi-period portfolio selection is a dynamic optimization problem with path dependence. Furthermore, a forward dynamic programming method is designed to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model and the designed algorithm.

Multi-attribute Decision Making Methodology with Interval Rough Number

ZHAO Huan-huan, JIAN Li-rong, LIU Yong

2016, 25(2):  78-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0047

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With respect to the two kinds of decision making problems that the attributes influence and interact on each other, and the attribute values are interval rough number, while the attribute weights are partly unknown or unknown, the thought of grey incidence analysis methodology is exploited to construct a novel interval rough multi attribute decision making model. The methodology, to begin with, based on the operation rules and the comparison of the expected value of the interval rough number, the positive and negative ideal schemes are determined, and then the grey incidence analysis method is used to respectively construct the multi object optimization model of the attribute weights are partly unknown or unknown, so that the attribute weights and the expression of the attribute weights can respectively be determined, and then the comprehensive evaluation values and ranking of the schemes can be acquired. Finally, an example validates the feasibility and effectiveness of the novel model.

Dynamic Intuitionistic Fuzzy Compromise Decision Making Method Based on Time Degrees

CHEN Wei, YANG Zao-li, ZHOU Wen, CHEN Heng

2016, 25(2):  83-89.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0048

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In view of the deficiencies of current dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making methods, a compromised one based on time degrees was proposed. The principle of time degrees was introduced, and the subjective and objective weighting methods were synthesized based on technique for preference by similarity to ideal solution, obtaining sequential weights which combine both of subjective preference and objective information of samples, to overcome the randomness of subjectively determining the sequential weights; and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy(IFE)was applied to determine the attribute weights under different time sequence .Then different periods of intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices were integrated by using dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy weighted geometric(DIFWG)operator to construct dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy comprehensive decision matrix, and the compromised ranking was provided based on VIKOR method considering both of maximum “group effectiveness” and minimum “individual regret”, obtaining the compromise scheme which was the closest to ideal solution. Finally, an example of partner selection of distributed innovation enterprise was given to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the presented method.

Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Heronian Mean Operators and Their Application to Multiple Attribute Decision Making

YU Qian, HOU Fu-jun

2016, 25(2):  90-97.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0049

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For solving multiple attribute decision making(MADM)problems when the evaluation values are in the form of hesitant fuzzy linguistic sets(HFLS)and the input arguments are associated with each other, an approach based on the Heronian mean(HM)operator is proposed to aggregate the hesitant fuzzy linguistic information. Due to the desirable properties of Heronian mean(HM)operator and geometric Heronian mean(GHM)operator that they can capture the interrelationship between input arguments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic Heronian mean(HFLHM)operator and a hesitant fuzzy linguistic geometric Heronian mean(HFLGHM)operator are proposed. Furthermore, some desirable properties and special cases of these operators are studied in detail. Considering the input arguments with different importance, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic weighted Heronian mean(HFLWHM)operator and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic weighted geometric Heronian mean(HFLWGHM)operator are defined. Moreover, based on these proposed aggregation operators, we develop an approach to deal with multiple attribute decision making problems under hesitant fuzzy linguistic environment. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the practicality and validity of the proposed method.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Competition and Cooperation Strategy among Regional Logistics Parks

OU Jiang-tao, MA Zu-jun

2016, 25(2):  98-103.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0050

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There are many problems in the development of logistics parks in China, such as redundant construction, too large scales, too high vacancy rates, and a large amount of resources waste. One of the effective measures is to integrate logistic park resources. Therefore, the competition and cooperation strategy among regional logistics parks is explored in this paper. An evolutionary game model for competition and cooperation strategy among logistics parks is developed to analyze the long-term evolutionary development trend of competition and cooperation relationship among logistics parks, and the parameters such as the transformation ability, the level of risk and resources among logistics parks are analyzed. The results show that the consequence of probable equilibrium resulting from long-term competition and cooperation among logistics parks is either complete competition or complete cooperation. In certain circumstances, the evolutionary direction is closely related to players’ payoff, and influenced by the initial status. And the path and the final state are closely related to the transformation ability, the level of risk and resources among logistics parks.

Exploratory Research into Influence Factors of Team Goal Orientation: Based on the Methods of Grounded Theory and Concept Lattice-Weighted Group DEMATEL

SHI Li-ping, JIA Ya-nan, LIU Qiang

2016, 25(2):  104-112.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0051

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Team goal orientation has an important guiding effect on the realization of team goals. Research into the influence factors of team goal orientation is the foundation of enhancing the guiding effect of team goal orientation. From the perspective of cognitive, this study selects the influence factors of team goal orientation with grounded theory firstly, and then identifies the important level of these influence factors with concept lattice-weighted group DEMATEL. On the basis of the selected influence factors, the study calculates the importace level of the influence factors from the example analysis with traditional DEMATEL and concept lattice-weighted group DEMATEL, and then compares and analyses the different. These calculations demonstrate that the team goal orientation will be influenced more greatly by individual level factors and organizational level factors. It can be concluded the most important influence factors are organizational commitment and organizational justice, finally the study puts forward the corresponding revelation for the enterprise managers.

The Evolutionary Game Analysis of Environmental NGOs’ Involvement in Enterprises’ Carbon Emission Reduction within the Context of Low-carbon Economy

SUN Su-peng, SUN Xiao-yang

2016, 25(2):  113-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0052

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In tackling the issue of carbon emission in the context of sustainable development in China, the paper has constructed trilateral evolutionary game model of enterprises, government and environmental NGOs and its replicator dynamics equation; in the mean time, 10 break-even points has been identified and analyzed in terms of their local stability, followed by a numerical simulation regarding the evolutionary process of interactive behavior of the three parties with the assistance of Matlab. The paper also investigates how changing certain parameters may affect the results of the system, exploring the factors and mechanism which may hinder the optimization of the system. Findings of the study suggest that cost needed in carrying out low-carbon production is the major influencing factor which determines the enterprises’ choice on low-carbon production. Government's choice on whether to adopt regulatory procedures is primarily determined by the penalty posed on enterprises and the cost of implementing regulative principle. Environmental NGOs’ choice on whether to inspect is vastly dependent upon the scale of subsidy by government and by the public and the cost required for inspection.

Demand Elastic, Countervailing Power and Price Discrimination

LI Kai, SU Hui-qing, LIU Zhi-hui, ZHAO Hong

2016, 25(2):  120-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0053

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We construct a completely dynamic game model to analyze the effect of demand elastic in the downstream market and countervailing power on price discrimination. The results show that the countervailing power of the retailer with low demand elastic weaken the price discrimination, and the consumer in the market with low demand elastic is better off, while the countervailing power of the retailer with high demand elastic strengthens the price discrimination, and the consumer surplus in the market with low demand elastic declines. The variation of consumer surplus in the market with high demand elastic depends on the retailer’s countervailing power, and it is improved only when the countervailing power is relatively high.

New Grey Relational Analysis Method Based on Interval-valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Uncertain Linguistic Information

YANG Wei, PANG Yong-feng

2016, 25(2):  128-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0054

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A new grey relational analysis method for interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy uncertain linguistic information has been proposed. First, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy uncertain linguistic positive ideal solution and negative ideal solution have been defined; then the grey relation of each evaluation value to the positive and negative ideal solution have been calculated; by using the attribute weight vector, the relation of each alternative to the positive and negative ideal solution can be determined, the relative relational degree of each alternative can be got and the alternatives can rank accordingly. A mathematical programming model has been set up to determine the attribute weights based on the principle that the selected alternative should have the largest grey relational degree with the positive ideal solution and has the smallest grey relational degree with the negative ideal solution. The risk evaluation of the real estate investment project is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Application Research

Study on Evaluation Theory and Method of Human Resource Management Quality Grade in Group Enterprise Based on Maturity Theory

FENG Sheng-ping, LI Yi-jun

2016, 25(2):  133-137.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0055

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Evaluating human resource management quality(HRMQ)of enterprise is helpful to promote the continuous improvement of its HRMQ. Taking group enterprise as example, based on maturity theory, this paper puts forward conceptual framework and maturity level of group enterprise, then establishes a OEC^⑤-66 model to evaluate HRMQ of group enterprise, which includes 5 aspects, 14 dimensions and 66 criteria from the organization, staff and culture three perspectives. This paper gives the calculation method of HRMQ and quality rating criteria, hoping to provide reference for evaluation and promotion of HRMQ in group enterprise.

Economical Subway Commute Model of City Evening Rush-hour in China Urbanization

WANG Yun-fang, CHEN Li-hua

2016, 25(2):  138-142.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0056

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City traffic peak is divided into morning and evening peak, and city evening peak has different characteristics froms morning peak in China. Because evening peak does not consider direct late cost as morning peak, it just needs to consider factors of relatively late cost, such as physical fatigue, night rest and activity time reduction, and in a large city, it will divert part of crowds enjoying evening entertainment activities before going home. This paper analyzes characteristics of city evening peak, establishes social benefit maximization model based subway multi-way economical travel model through operations research and solves it, and gives reference suggestions to city subway commute economic mode and pricing of subway station, bicycles and private car parking joint operation.

Research on Energy Efficient Virtual Machine Placement with Complicated Resources Requirements in Cloud

XUE Ke-lei, PAN Yu, PAN Fang, QIAN Cun-hua

2016, 25(2):  143-150.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0057

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Online virtual machine placement problem in cloud which is also a bin packing problem is studied in this paper. Multi-dimensional space partition model and online energy efficient virtual machine placement algorithm are presented. The proposed model can be used to guide the placement of virtual machines and avoid the imbalanced use of multi-dimensional resources. Based on this model, the proposed OEEVMP can achieve a tradeoff between local optimum and global optimum with the number of running physical machines, so as to improve the energy efficiency of virtual machine placement. The proposed algorithm is also evaluated with MFFD algorithm via extensive simulations and experiments. The experiment results verifie the feasibility and validity of the proposed algorithm. At last, two parameters of the model are analyzed and the optimal combination of them is given.

A Group Evaluation Method Based on Evaluators’ Risks

GONG Cheng-ju, GUO Ya-jun, LI wei-wei

2016, 25(2):  151-155.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0058

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Aimed at solving the inconsistent evaluation results caused by multiple evaluators in group evaluation,this paper proposes a group evaluation method by considering evaluators’ risks. This method abandons evaluators’ risk attitudes investigated in previous studies and does not require to gather the evaluation information of evaluators. This method fully considers the risk factors of evaluators and uses the solver to get the final group evaluation results which aims to investigate the method of group evaluation from the theoretical level. Firstly,the evaluation situation and the research hypotheses are developed and the definition of evaluators’ risks is given. Secondly,the weights and risks of evaluators in this evaluation activity can be got respectively based on the experience information of evaluators and the information in the process of evaluation. According to the principle that individual evaluation results and ideal results are within minimum deviation,a nonlinear programming model is used to calculate the final evaluation results. Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of this method.

PDA Model Decomposing of Driving Forces of CO₂ Emissions of Urban Non-agricultural Land from the Perspective of the Production System

CUI Wei, WANG San-ying

2016, 25(2):  156-164.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0059

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This paper fully reveals the driving forces of CO₂ emissions of the urban non-agricultural land based on the PDA model from the perspective of the production system. Based on the non-parameter distance function and the environmental DEA production technology, it decomposes the driving forces of the urban non-agricultural land of the China’s 28 provinces into three levels by the Index Decomposition Analysis. The results show that the positive driving forces are the technical progress, the carbon intensity of the agricultural land use structure, the utilization intensity of the potential non-agricultural land, the expected outputs and the unexpected outputs performance; the negative driving forces are the scale effect, the technical efficiency, the investment performance of the capital stock, the labor and the non-agricultural land on the national level while it is a slightly different in driving forces in three large regions. So it is crucial to alleviate CO₂ emissions of the urban non-agricultural land by improving the input performance and the technical efficiency of the input resources utilization.

Study on Economic Efficiencies of Emission Taxes and Emission Standards

XU Shi-chun, HE Zheng-xia, LONG Ru-yin, ZHANG Wei-wei

2016, 25(2):  165-172.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0060

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The pollution problem is the current focus of attention of the world, so many countries and regions have adopted policies to control pollutions. In view of different effects of reduction policies, it is necessary to conduct in-depth study of different emission-reduction policies, so as to provide theoretical basis and references for the implementation of emission-reduction policies. This paper applies game theory and optimal planning method to study economic efficiencies of emission taxes and emission standards from the microscopic point of view, and put forward implementation conditions of optimal emission taxes and emission standards in first-best setting through comparative analysis. Conclusions are drawn as follows: emission taxes have a “restrained output effect”, and emission standards have an “output subsidy effect”. In the perfect competition, the emission taxes are efficient, while the emission standards are in the loss of efficiency. In the imperfect competition, emission taxes are in the loss of efficiency, but emission standards are effective. Because imperfect competition does not exist in reality, as the economic efficiency is concerned, emission standards are superior to emission taxes. No matter what the state of the economy, emission taxes combined with output subsidies and emission standards combined with consumption taxes, can make the economy reach the optimum, which are the optimal reduction policies.

An Empirical Study on Internet Users’ Links Sharing Based on Planed Behavior Theory

GU Dong-xiao, SUN Jian-jun, ZHANG Yue, SHENG Dong-fang, YANG Su

2016, 25(2):  173-179.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0061

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Based on the theory of planned behavior, this study investigates the influence factors of users’ cyber links behavior in the mobile Internet, and develops the conceptual model among the self-actualization need, immersion, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and users’ online links intention, as well as behavior. Based on 428 records of data collected from the real world, an empirical analysis is completed. And the results show that the self-actualization needs, immersion, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control all have significantly positive influence on cyber users’ links intention as well as their link behavior. The conclusions are helpful to provide important reference for the websites to optimize their links sharing tools for better social information diffusion and business information promotion.

Research on Regional Planning Policy Effect Evaluation Based on Fixed Effects Regression

CHI Guo-tai, CHEN Hong-hai

2016, 25(2):  180-189.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0062

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This paper applies the economic data of two provinces and one city in the national regional typical planning-Yangtze River Delta regional planning to build a model of fixed effect and variable intercept regression in different time window; contrasted by the changes of regression coefficient in different time window, it obtains policy effect of national regional planning. The innovate and character is that: First ,it obtains the increment changes size of effect variable which results in the unit policy by the slope coefficient changes of variable intercept regression model in different time window of all three provinces. Second, contrasted by the regression equation intercept changes of planning pre and post , all three provinces and different time window, it gains the increased size of effect variable amount. The innovate changes the status that current research has gained the evaluation result only by the comparison of different region transverse data; it has no comparability because of the differences of objective base and condition in different region in fact. The third, in different provinces, compared to the sorting size changes of the pre-and-post planning for effect regression function’s intercept , it discriminates the changes of development balance level. The main conclusions are that: Firstly, the variation of the unit input of central fixed assets investment to urban and rural residents increases evidently in planning region; It is no more notable because of the increased economic development level and the decreased variation of the unit input of central subsidy income to the disposable income of urban and rural residents. Secondly, the effect function value of disposable income per capitals for urban and rural residents in planning region increase evidently. Thirdly, the gap of spontaneous income of disposable income per capitais among every provinces for Yangtze River Delta regional planning level is reduced.

A Kind of Dynamic Pricing Model and Strategy for Durable Goods in E-commerce Environment

ZHANG Da-bin, YANG Si-qi, XIA You-xin, LI Yan-hui

2016, 25(2):  190-196.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0063

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For the problem about the consumers’ dissatisfaction with the price discrimination in e-commerce environment, as well as the characteristics such as long life cycle of durable goods, time and price dependent of product requirement and so on, this paper proposes a dynamic pricing model and strategy. The model derives the probability of different prices of durable goods when consumers browsing online by constructing transition matrix. Then it proposes an optimal pricing policy of maximum profit set for retailer by analyzing the purchase behaviors of consumers with consumer multi-stage utility function. In order to validate the model and strategy, we analysis the effect of main parameters on optimal pricing by numerical simulation experiment. Experiments show that retailers should reduce the frequency of promotion and high price, and increase lower price to induce high-end consumers to buy high price products when the factor of discount is higher. And the utility size of factor of discount decide whether the online retailer to hide his own promotion probability.

Research on the Spatial Aggregation Changes and Affecting Factors of China’s Housing Development Investment

ZHANG Hong, YU Bo, JU Li-xin

2016, 25(2):  197-202.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0064

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This paper is based on the data of Chinese provincial housing development investment from 1998 to 2014, and measures the annual spatial aggregation index of housing development investment by using Moran’s I. The results show that China’s housing development investment has the typical characteristics of space aggregation, and these characteristics and extent of spatial aggregation change with the national economic and social situation in different years. To get a better handle on this problems, this paper initials an empirical research to test the affecting factors of spatial aggregation changes in China’s housing development investment by establishing multiple linear regression model, and the results show that the rate of economic growth, industrial upgrading, infrastructure investment, population urbanization has a significant effect on spatial aggregation changes in China's housing development investment.

Research on the Stability of Industry-University-Research Institute Alliance: Based on Market Mechanisms and Government Regulations

CAO Xia, YU Juan

2016, 25(2):  203-213.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0065

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To promote stable development of industry-university-research institute alliance and solve short-term questions of industry-university-research institute alliance in China, decision-making model of union behavior choice among industries universities andresearche institute is built based on evolutionary game theory, and stable strategies are analyzed by replicator dynamics equation. The evolution behaviors of industries and universities-researche institute in alliance are analyzed and based on the above analysis some numerical simulations are given using the Matlab 7.0. It is important theoretical guiding significance in the stable development of industry-university-research institute alliance in China to analyze cooperative behaviors from the perspectives of market mechanisms and government regulations.

An Investment Decision Model and Its Experimental Research on P2P Lending Network

GUO Yan-hong, LIU Wei, LUO Chun-yu

2016, 25(2):  214-219.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0066

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As a new emerging application of E-business, Person to Person Lending has played an important role after the world financial crisis in the financial market. This paper gives a novel idea about how to analyze information from investors but not from borrowers to help investors select those high value with low risk loans. Specifically, investor profiles are built at first based on quantitative analysis of past performances, risk preferences, and investment experiences of investors. Then, an investor composition analysis model is developed, which can be used to improve the investment decisions. At last, we do a serious of experiments based on the data of the world's largest P2P lending marketplace. Experimental results suggest that the investor composition analysis can indicate the investment value effectively. Also, this data-driven investor composition model is superior to other decision models.

Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Market Related Structure Aanalysis and Portfolio Risk Measurement Based on ARFIMA-GARCH-Copula Model

WU Yu-bao, WANG Jin-ju

2016, 25(2):  220-225.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0067

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It is well known that financial return has sharp-peaks, fat-tails, heteroscedasticity and long memory. Considering three features, the paper constructs a risk measure model based on the ARFIMA-GARCH-Copula for financial portfolio,which is composed by Shanghai Stock index return and Shenzhen Component Index return equal weight. First the classical R/S analysis is adopted to test the long memory of a single asset. Second, the paper adopts different GARCH models to fit each asset return series. Third, it selects Copula function to describe the relational structure between each asset. Fourth, it uses Monte Carlo method to produce each return sequence of the assets. And then it calculates the VaR of financial portfolio. The empirical results show that there is apparent long memory property in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market which has symmetrical tail correlation. Kupiec test results show that the model of ARFIMA-GARCH-Copula is more efficient than GARCH-Copula model in measuring the portfolio risk.

Algorithm of the Improvement Portfolio Model and Positive Analysis

QIN chang-cheng

2016, 25(2):  226-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0068

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Up to now, there is little research on the model with skewness and transaction cost based on the Markowitz mean-variance model, and there are less research results on this model integrated with Chinese market data and drawing three-dimensional efficiently portfolio frontier images. After setting up two kinds of optimal portfolio models under transaction cost constraints, regarding the linear combination of variance and skewness as objective function, two models are transformed approximately to problems of linear programming by the approximation of linear function. And the approximation degree can be controlled. Then simplex algorithm is applied to solve them to get the optimal portfolios. Depending on these, positive analysis is carried out to utilize the data of the eight Chinese listed companies and to draw approximate three-dimensional efficiently portfolio frontier images. Then the relationships between the objective optimization and parameters are discussed. It can be found that the objective function o is increasing function of expectation r and parameter m.

Governmental Hierarchy、Institutional Environment and Investment Opportunity Based on Empirical Study of Chinese listed Company

KONG Ting-ting, HU Wen-xiu

2016, 25(2):  233-241.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0069

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This article from the perspective of government hierarchy,institutional environment and investment opportunities,in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies as research samples,use factor analysis method to extract the principal component of variables to the investment opportunity set and institutional environment, and empirical test the influence of government hierarchy, institutional environment to investment opportunities. According to this research, we have discovered that there is difference influence of institutional environment to investment opportunity between government controlling corporation and non-government controlling corporation. The influence of institutional environment to government controlling corporation is notable, and these differences also exist in different hierarchy of government controlling corporation. Whether government control will affect corporation investment opportunities. Government controlling enterprises will have growth and sustainable development ability is higher than non-government controlling corporation.

Management Science

Spatial Partition and Coordination Strategies for Prioritized Three-Stage Handling Operations

TAO Sha, HU Zhi-hua, SHENG Zhao-han

2016, 25(2):  242-251.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0070

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The research on the problem of unitized three-stage operational chain for material handling operations with key resource priority conditions, including three sub-processes: loading, unloading and transport, is studied in this paper. Based on the known scheduling scheme of key resource, the two non-critical stage scheduling problems are converted into the minimum unit flow problem respectively and solved. Spatial partition and coordination Strategies are developed. The critical stage of loading/unloading operation area is divided and the equipment in this area are allocated reasonably, so as to setup reasonable known parameters of the model. The area divided and coordinated scheduling strategy of the non-critical loading/unloading operation stage is presented with the aim to expand the scale of calculation. We take the three-stage container handling operational chain for example. On the basis of real Ningbo port, the material handling operation problems in the background of port are supposed. Numeric cases , especially case in large scale, are conducted to verify the model and strategy.

Capacity Allocation in Outpatient Appointment Service with Adding of Capacities

JIANG Bo-wen, TANG Jia-fu, YAN Chong-jun

2016, 25(2):  252-257.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0071

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The appointment service effectively optimizes treatment procedure of outpatient department. Aiming at the characteristics of patients weak consciousness of outpatient appointment and high no-show rate of appointment patients, this paper researches on healthcare provider capacity allocation to match appointment patients and walk-in patients demand, under the condition of adding capacity when patients demand is quiet high. The objective is to maximize expected profit, which is formulated as the total revenue of diagnosing patients minus the cost of adding capacities and rejecting patients.The unimodality of expected profit function is proved in this paper and the condition for the optimal capacity allocation scheme is derived from the property of unimodality. Numerical experiments are conducted to analyze the impacts of different outpatient parameters on capacity allocation scheme. The results show that the demand of two kinds of patients greatly impacts optimal solution, and capacity allocation scheme is more sensitive to no-show under the condition of adding capacity.

B2C E-commerce Differentiated Discount Model Based on Aggregated Online Purchase History

LI Cong, YANG Mei, Gajanan G. Hegde, MA Li

2016, 25(2):  258-267.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0072

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Many B2C websites have established their member hierarchy mechanisms to provide price discount to buyers. However, member hierarchy model only considers buyers' transaction amount, which can not reflect comprehensively buyers' online purchase history. Hence, member hierarchy model is unable to provide accurate differentiated discount for individual. To solve the above problem, a differentiated discount model for B2C E-commerce was proposed. This model integrated four indicators which can reflect buyers’ online purchase history, including transaction, withdrawal of order, recommend-to-buy and order show; then the four indicators were aggregated into one value. By using min-max normalization, a linear conversion method, the aggregation value was combined with the base discount of member hierarchy to generate a differentiated discount for target buyer. That means the B2C website can implement more accurate one-to-one marketing and price discrimination strategy. The results of simulation experiment set in 360buy.com showed the validity of the new model.

Analysis of the Impact and the Channel of Urbanization on Economic Development

ZHU Yue-pu, HUANG Xin-jian

2016, 25(2):  268-275.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0073

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Based on the combination of qualitative analysis and description of relation schema we present four hypothesis, which are H1: urbanization has obviously positive impact on economic development; H2: urbanization could influence economic development via consumption channel; H3: urbanization could influence economic development via investment channel; H4: urbanization could influence economic development via export channel. Furthermore, according to the actual economic development, China has been divided into two kinds of areas-developed area and developing area. We set economic development variable PGDP as explained variable, set urbanization variable UR, variable UR×PFI of interaction of urbanization and investment, variable UR×HC of interaction of urbanization and consumption, variable UR×PE of interaction of urbanization and export, as explaining variables as well, and apply panel data of 31 provincial districts from 2000 to 2012. After the unit root test, the cointegration test, the F test and the Hausman test, the paper builds individual fixed effects model, and verifies hypothesis H1~H4 in the whole nation and two areas. The result shows that hypothesis H1, H2, H3 is tenable in the whole nation and two areas; hypothesis H4 is only tenable in underdeveloped area. Based on the result, the paper gives a relevant enlightenment.

Operation Policies on a Support System for Repairable Spare Parts Based on Performance-Based Logistics Pattern

LIU Ming-wu, ZHANG Xu, PENG Guan-jun

2016, 25(2):  276-281.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0074

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This paper sets up a closed-loop support system which consists of a spare parts warehouse and a repair workshop under Performance-based logistics(PBL)pattern. The steady-state probability distributions of spare part inventory level are derived and several performance measures such as availability are obtained. An operation optimization model for the support system with availability constrained is established and the operations policies are discussed by simulated analysis.

Knowledge Flow Effect Measure of University-Industry Cooperation Based on GERT Network

ZHANG Yu, JIAN Li-rong, YU Han-zi

2016, 25(2):  282-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0075

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Knowledge flow effect measure of University-industry cooperation(UIC)is always a difficult problem. Based on GERT network and synergetics, the paper searches the method of knowledge flow effect measure. According to knowledge flow characteristics, it analyzes knowledge flow effect by using probability and moment generating function of GERT network. For getting the distribution type of moment generating function, using synergetics theory, the paper analyzes internal factors and external factors of UIC and builds up knowledge flow equation changing over time that is used as moment generating function. At the same time, taking landing gear system of large airplane research an example, using expert investigation method to get initial data , it analyzes knowledge flow effect by the method. By analyzing knowledge flow of GERT network model, it can supply the important information of knowledge value-added amount and flow smoothness to help the decision-maker take positive measures for completing research projects timely and quality.