Table of Content

25 June 2016, Volume 25 Issue 3

Previous Issue    Next Issue

Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Aircrafts Maintenance Routing Model and Algorithm

LAN Bo-xiong, WANG Tong-shu

2016, 25(3):  1-10.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0076

Asbtract ( )   PDF (799KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Based on literature review of aircrafts maintenance routing problem, a new two-stage model is proposed in this paper. This model aims to maximize utilization of available flying time between two maintenances. By using a heuristic two-stage algorithm, we find a highly efficient way to solve the problem when dealing with large scale data. Computational test shows that models generated from real application data of an airline company can be solved efficiently within reasonable time.

Research on Classification for Key Development Projects in General Aviation Industry by Using Dominance Relationship Based Rough Set Approach

ZHU Yu-ming, SHI Li-li, HAN Qing-Ye

2016, 25(3):  11-18.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0077

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1374KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the method of dominance relationship rough set, a classification model for sorting key development projects in General Aviation Industry is proposed. The model, which is inspired by the idea of classification of multi-criteria decision analysis(Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) and GE matrix, establishes indicators from project competitiveness and project attractiveness, and uses the method of dominance relationship based rough set to classify the key development projects in general aviation industry. The effectiveness of the proposed model has been verified by the employment of the model in classifying key development projects in Shaanxi General Aviation Industry. Meanwhile, the result proves that the model can solve classification and evaluation of key project issues in general aviation industry under the circumstance where partial information is missing.

Optimization Model for Commodity Transaction Based on Electronic Intermediary Under Group-buying Environment

CHEN Xi, WANG Ning-ning, FAN Zhi-ping

2016, 25(3):  19-25.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0078

Asbtract ( )   PDF (813KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In the online group-buying, how to realize the optimization of commodity transaction with considerations of the benefits of sellers, consumers and the electronic intermediary is a noteworthy research issue. In this paper, for the transaction problem based on the electronic intermediary which trades the online group-buying commodity, based on the information of the quantity range and the quantity discount determined by sellers and electronic intermediary and the quoted prices and the reservation prices respectively determined by customers and sellers, a multi-objective optimization model is established considering the profit maximization objective of sellers, consumers and the electronic intermediary simultaneously. Further, the multi-objective optimization model is transformed to the single-objective one, and the Partheno-Genetic Algorithm is given to solve the model. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and the algorithm.

Residential Customer Time-of-use Natural Gas Pricing Model and Optimized Solving Method

ZHANG Zong-yi, XING Wen-ting, WU Sheng-li

2016, 25(3):  26-31.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0079

Asbtract ( )   PDF (817KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

For the natural gas residential customer, establishing appropriate time-of-use natural gas price, it can shift peak load, and ensure the gas pipelines securely and stably operate. The reaction curve of residential customer and function of satisfaction index are constructed, and then based on this, to minimize the maximum peak load as well as the difference peak load and valley load, and maximize customer satisfaction, the optimized model of Time-of-use price are established on the demanding side. The improved ant colony algorithm is adopted to solve the model, the algorithm has good convergence, and also avoids the shortcoming of local optimum. In ensuring fairness and efficiency, both the customer and gas company can benefit at the same time. The results show the existence of an optimal price for peak, flat and valley, and the customer satisfaction can be maximized, the maximum peak load as well as the difference of peak load and valley load can be reduced effectively, which verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. This method provides a theoretical basis for the reasonable natural gas pricing mechanism and the establishment of policies.

Optimization for Coordination Scheduling Problem of On-site Construction Waste Sorting

CHEN Min

2016, 25(3):  32-38.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0080

Asbtract ( )   PDF (770KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The efficiency of waste sorting on construction site had an important impact on the construction progress. Through analyzing the handling process of on-site waste sorting, a Hybrid Flow Shop scheduling model with finite intermediate buffers was proposed. Several heuristic algorithms and rules were developed in different stages of scheduling. For examples, a dynamic adaptive heuristic algorithm of job sequencing in the collect stage and equipment allocation rules of considering buffers in follow-up stages. A heuristic algorithm of waste sorting model based on these rules was further designed to balance the workload of districts. A lower bound was given to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Computational experiments were conducted and it was shown that the proposed algorithm was competitive in algorithm convergence and computing speed in solving the problem of on-site construction waste sorting.

the Impact of Supply Chain Interactions on the Bullwhip Effect

SUN Yong-quan, BAI Xue-lian, MA Yun-gao, WANG Neng-min

2016, 25(3):  39-45.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0081

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1248KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Considering two-parallel supply chains, this paper studies the demand model that depends on two product prices and analyses the impact of interactions on the bullwhip effect in two-parallel supply chains. The results reveal that: (1)The interactions between the two supply chains may increase or dampen the bullwhip effect. (2)When the two-parallel supply chains are competitors due to product substitutability, if the product in one supply chain has a small interacting price sensitivity coefficient, then the interaction can dampen the bullwhip effect when the price evolution covariance between the two supply chains is large. (3)When the two-parallel supply chains are partners or their products are complementary, if the product in one supply chain has a large absolute interacting price sensitivity coefficient, then the interaction can dampen the bullwhip effect when the price evolution covariance between the two supply chains is small.

Optimal Strategies for Selling on Group-Buying Website with Consideration of Offline Channels

JIANG Xuan, DENG Shi-ming, LI Yan-hai

2016, 25(3):  46-56.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0082

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1476KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Group-buying(GB)website is a very popular online platform for sellers offering products/service with discount in recent years. This paper builds an analytical model for sellers selling on GB website to make optimal decisions on pricing and setting deal size based on a typical GB deal structure. With a view of the cost, the requirement of minimum deal size and the interactions between GB website and offline market, it provides managerial insights for the seller on whether to set a cap on the deal size and how to set the maximum deal size with combination of pricing. We first derive three optional strategies for sellers under varying exogenous conditions. We show that it may be optimal for the seller to set a maximum deal size limit even though there is no capacity limit. This upper bound of the deal size can be a strategic tool to shift customers from online to offline even if there is a customer loss. With the upper bound on deal size, we show that selling at a discounted price below cost or even for free can be an optimal strategy for sellers if the minimum deal size set by the GB site is not high. We also investigate how the customers’ transfer rate and the minimum deal size set by the GB website affect seller’s optimal selection on the GB deal. Comparing with the optimal strategy of selling through single offline channel, we derive conditions under which selling through GB website is better. It shows that selling through GB website is beneficial to sellers when there are enough new customers on the GB website and the overlap of customers between GB website and offline channel is not large. This paper also provides suggestions for GB website on how to induce seller to offer deep discount on the GB deal including adjusting the GB sale fee and the minimum deal size.

Pricing Decisions in Two-level Supply Chain of Imperfect Complementary Products

ZHANG Yu-zhong, CHU Yong-jie, LIU Ceng-ceng

2016, 25(3):  57-64.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0083

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1128KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In this paper, a supply chain model composed of two manufactures and a retailer is presented , where the two manufactures provide the retailer with imperfect complementary products(P1 and P2 respectively)and the retailer sales the two products as mixed bundle, to obtain the optimal pricing decisions of manufactures and retailer. We consider decision-making under three scenarios: (1)completely noncooperative game(CNG); (2)partial-cooperative game(PCG); (3)cooperative game(CG). The pricing decisions under the first two scenarios reveal that compared with decisions under completely noncooperative game, what is obtained by using Sharply Value under partial-cooperative game is definitely beneficial for the manufactures and is Pareto improving for the retailer’s profit with certain imperative conditions met. Based on the above results, we get the optimal pricing decisions, which can not only eliminate the horizontal channel conflict between the manufactures, but also eliminate vertical channel conflict among all participants, with the help of Nash bargaining model. The results show that the demands of the two products in cooperative game are twice as many as that in partial-cooperative game; and each number’s profit in this scenario is evidently superior to that in the other two scenarios. To verify our conclusions above, some numerical experiments are followed at last.

Study on the Maximum Supply and Reasonable Pricing Problem Based on the More-for-less Paradox in Transportation Problems

YANG De-quan, WANG Jia

2016, 25(3):  65-70.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0084

Asbtract ( )   PDF (626KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The dual programming condition and the D-value of objective function model are given to judge whether the more-for-less paradox occurs in transportation problems. The maximum amount of supply and demand model is constructed to achieve the maximum adjustment scheme while increasing the supply with no freight increasing. Next, the reasonable pricing method is proposed to solve the paradox by changing the unreasonable transportation price and proved to be true. It is found that the solving model and method exhibits excellent face validity for a numerical example.

Single Machine JIT Scheduling Problem Considering the Release Time

LI Kai, ZHOU Chao, MA Ying

2016, 25(3):  71-77.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0085

Asbtract ( )   PDF (700KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

This paper mainly studies the production, inventory and direct distribution coordination optimization scheduling problem in the two-stage supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and multiple retailers. The manufacturer makes the products according to orders and then distribute the products to retailers. This kind of problem can be abstracted as the single machine JIT scheduling problem considering the release time. With the help of Tabu search algorithm, we propose the CTA-TS algorithm for solving the problem and show the effectiveness of our algorithm to the existing algorithm by a lot of experimental data.

Selecting Supply Chain Paradigms Based on a Hybrid Fuzzy Entropy-TOPSIS Method

LI Jian, ZHANG Su-meng, LIU Yue, TANG Yan

2016, 25(3):  78-84.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0086

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1368KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Selecting lean, agile and leagile supply chain paradigms involves a variety of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Based on this feature, the fuzzy entropy-TOPSIS approach is proposed in this paper. Subjective weighting method can not reflect the change of objective conditions and the objective one can not reflect the experience of experts. In order to avoid the double drawbacks above, this paper employs triangular fuzzy number to determine the qualitative indicators weights as well as the fuzzy-entropy weighting method to determine the quantitative ones. Then, the fuzzy TOPSIS is employed to generate an overall performance score for each supply chain paradigm. Finally, an example of supply chain paradigm selection and the sensitive analysis of the criteria weights are conducted to show that the proposed fuzzy entropy-TOPSIS approach is suitable for enterprises to choose the proper supply chain paradigm effectively.

Critical Facility Identification Problems Based On Hub-and-Spoke Network

YANG Jun, LU Wei, LIU Shu-ji

2016, 25(3):  85-93.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0087

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1337KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Node, particularly hub node, determines the stability of a hub-and-spoke network due to its being one of the most important elements. When the running of nodes is interdicted, disastrous influence on the entire network would be induced which mostly advents in the figure of drastic soar in the operation cost of the network. As a result, identification of the critical nodes of a hub-and spoke network is the topical subject of the dissertation. Firstly, based on the hub location problem, we establish the hub interdiction model. Then we solve the problem by Tabu search algorithm. Finally, we use the practical case of China’s aviation transportation industry to verify our model and algorithm’s validity. Results show that the model and algorithm can effectively identify the critical key city and non-critical city in China’s aviation transport industry. It also provides the basis and help for the reasonable classification and deployment of critical cities defenses in China’s aviation transportation industry under limited resources situation.

CUSUM Control Chart with Variable Sampling Intervals Under non-normal Distribution

XUE Li

2016, 25(3):  94-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0088

Asbtract ( )   PDF (633KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

When the process has the small shift, CUSUM control chart can find the shift faster than the traditional Shewhart control chart. In order to improve the monitoring efficiency of control chart, CUSUM control chart with variable sample intervals(VSI)for non-normal data is proposed in this paper. Firstly, VSI CUSUM control chart is developed using Burr distribution to approximate various non-normal distributions. Secondly, the Markov chain method is used to calculate the average time to signal. Finally, the computing results show that the VSI CUSUM control chart for non-normal data is more efficient in detecting shifts than the fixed sampling interval(FSI)CUSUM control chart for non-normal data.

Water Quality Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Multiple-Attribute Decision Making Based on Variable Weight Function

ZHOU Rong-xi, XU Bu-xiang, SHAN Xin-tao, ZHANG Ying-kui

2016, 25(3):  99-105.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0089

Asbtract ( )   PDF (626KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The paper develops a comprehensive evaluation multi-attribute decision-making model of water quality on the basis of the variable weight function from the perspective of practical operation. Firstly, a univocal parametric description for the differences among the degree of concern and the performance level as well as compromise mechanism related to indicators is given. Secondly it ensures that the index weight with different performances of the sample can carry out a controlled redistribution in mechanism, which guarantees that performance indicators that are in a high degree of concern always have a relatively large influence on the evaluation. Moreover, it can highly differentiate in the case of samples with the similar performance. Finally, some numerical examples of water quality evaluation are analyzed and discussed.

Network Structure, Adopters Preference and Innovation Diffusion: A Simulation Analysis of the S-D Model of Innovation Diffusion Based on the Decision Making Process of Adopters

MA Yong-hong, WANG Zhan-zhao, LI Huan, ZHOU Wen

2016, 25(3):  106-116.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0090

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1948KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the analysis of the adopters decision-making, using the network structure and adopters preference as the key parameters, this paper establishes the innovation diffusion S-D model based on adopters decision-making. The simulation analysis shows that under the similar preferences of adopters, the trend of changes in network average degrees、network rewiring probability and the intensity of adopters preference are the same as the innovation diffusion efficiency. But the results will be opposite under the differentiation preferences of adopters.Improving the average path length of network will always lower the efficiency of innovation diffusion. The similar preferences of adopters can enlarge the sensitivity of innovation diffusion on network structure and adopters preference,but the differentiation preferences of adopters can reduce the sensitivity of innovation diffusion on network structure and adopters preference.

Risk Group Decision-making Method Considering Double Reference Point in Cumulative Prospect Theory

LI Huan, ZHU Jian-jun, ZHANG Shi-tao

2016, 25(3):  117-124.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0091

Asbtract ( )   PDF (650KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To the incompleteness of weight information of decision makers and the attribute’s interval value in multi-attribute risk group decision-making, an multi-attribute risk group decision-making method which considers double reference point and cumulative prospect theory is suggested .Firstly, the value of the two preference points(expectations and positive ideal point)is obtained based on the cumulative prospect theory, and the weighted cumulative prospect value of every alternative is got by using a coefficient of bias expectation. Then, a weight optimization model is established to calculate the decision makers’ weight according to the maximizing deviations ideas, so that the alternative can be ranked by the comprehensive cumulative prospect value. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are verified by the comparison with the situations(single reference point and the expected utility theory)in the application of the engineering bid evaluation case.

Hesitant Fuzzy Decision Making Method with Confidence Levels and Preference Relations on Attributes

RUAN Chuan-yang, YANG Jian-hui, HAN Li-na, LIU Ruo-bing

2016, 25(3):  125-131.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0092

Asbtract ( )   PDF (637KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The multiple attribute decision making problem with confidence levels and preference information on attributes under hesitant fuzzy environment is studied. At first, we introduce a useful formula of weighed rate of variation for measuring data variation degree and shows the index of weighed rate of variation has good measuring characteristics like Gini coefficient. Then we put forward confidence induced hesitant fuzzy hybrid averaging(CIHFHA)operator based on the weighed rate of variation. According to the hesitant fuzzy multi-attribute decision making problem of unknown attribute weights information, we construct a new evaluation model of attributes weights called entropy correction group G1 combination weights with preference information on attributes. The method can effectively use the objective data of attributes and reflect the opinions of experts by considering the preference information on attributes. It also settles the allocation problem of subjective and objective determination problem, and makes the obtained attribute weights more objective and reasonable. Finally, a hesitant fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method based on CIHFHA operator and combination weights method is provided, and examples are given to illustrate the validity and practicability of the method.

Interval-valued Intuitionistic Trapezoidal Fuzzy Bonferroni Means and Its Application in Multi-attribute Group Decision Making

ZHOU Xiao-hui ,YAO Jian ,WU Tian-kui

2016, 25(3):  132-139.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0093

Asbtract ( )   PDF (739KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

With respect to the problems of multiple attribute group decision-making(MAGDM)in which the attribute values are in the form of interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers(IVITFN)and attributes are associated with each other, an approach is proposed based on weighted interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy Bonferroni means(WIVITFBM)operator. Firstly, according to the IVITFN’s operational laws and Bonferroni means(BM)operator, the interval-valued intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy Bonferroni means(IVITFBM)operator and WIVITFBM operator are defined. Meanwhile, the related properties are researched, then a model of MAGDM is constructed based on WIVITFBM operator, which is for making decisions combining with sort methods. Finally, an illustrative example of MAGDM problems is examined to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed operator in this paper.

The Game of Timing Model and its Optimal Strategy Under the Influence of Emotion

XIONG Guo-qiang, LIU Xi

2016, 25(3):  140-145.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0094

Asbtract ( )   PDF (754KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

According to the rank-dependent expected utility theory, to study the classic game of timing, by introducing the nonlinear decision weighting function that can portray the players’ emotional state in the game, and extending the RDEU limited strategy game to a continuous game, we build a RDEU game of timing model. Based on the Riccati differential equation solution, we obtain the optimal strategies of the players in the game model. Finally, we analyze different emotional states influence the behavior of players’ game decision-making by numerical simulation. This paper finds that emotion has a great impact on the optimal strategy of the mixed strategies. In an optimistic mood state, the player can easily build confidence and trust in the mixed strategy, and take the risk-seeking; in a pessimism state, the players tend to lack confidence and trust in mixed strategies, take risk-aversion.

A Method for Two-sided Matching Decision-making with Distributed Order Relation Information

CHEN Sheng-qun

2016, 25(3):  146-150.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0095

Asbtract ( )   PDF (625KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

A decision-making method based on evidential reasoning has been proposed for solving the two-sided matching problem with distributed order relation information in this paper. Firstly, two-sided satisfaction is taken as the goal, all pieces of the two-sided assessment information are taken as evidence and satisfaction degrees of two-sided matching are gotten by evidence fusion. Then, a decision-making model based on fusion degrees is constructed in order to obtain the matching solution. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach.

Generalized Intuitionistic Fuzzy Bonferroni Mean Based on Arhcimedean Norm and its Application to Multi-attribute Decision Making

NIE Dong-ming

2016, 25(3):  151-158.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0096

Asbtract ( )   PDF (665KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

This paper proposes a novel generalized intuitionistic fuzzy Bonferroni means operator, which is based on the Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm. First, we investigate the generalized intuitionistic fuzzy Bonferroni mean(GIFBM)based on the Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm and generalized intuitionistic fuzzy operational laws. Then, its desirable properties are discussed, including commutativity, idempotency, monotonicity and boundedness. We further study some special cases of the GIFBM in detail. Finally, an approach to intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making is developed based on the proposed aggregation operator, and give a numerical example about air-conditioning system selection to illustrate the behavior of the proposed method.

Application Research

Meta-synthesis-Based Research Into Research Consortium

PENG Shuai, WANG Yi-ran, YU Jing-yuan

2016, 25(3):  159-162.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0097

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1334KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the method of Meta-synthesis, this paper sets up a research consortium mathematical model which based on Meta-synthesis method, especially for problem existed in project 863、project 973 and other national important scientific research projects that the members of the project unit independent scientific research hard to meet the requirement“1+1>2”, The illustrates and proves the sufficient condition of existence that the member units can be attributable to the same research consortium on condition that playing the greatest extent. Based on this sufficient condition, a method has been put forward which members of major scientific research project divided into as little as possible making sure the member of each subset can be attributable to the same research consortium, at last through the case shows how the method of partition fit for the case.

Research on Application of Random Forests in the Quantitative Stock Selection Model

WANG Shu-yan, CAO Zheng-feng, CHEN Ming-zhi

2016, 25(3):  163-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0098

Asbtract ( )   PDF (779KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

By analyzing the indicator system used by the stock selection model at home and abroad, we start from the six factor model of Jiao Jian, use correlation analysis method of the indicators, and propose the indicator system of the eight factor stock selection model. We selecte the sample data for 200 stocks in 2013 March, achieve a prediction about the rise and fall of the stock in 2013 April by the random forests. We verify the quantitative stock model has better performance in the Chinese stock market, by comparing the six factor model of Jiao Jian and analyzing the actual performance values of the preferred stock in the average income and the minimum and maximum values in the trade.

Influence of Open Interest and Participants on the Asset Prices in Futures Markets

ZHUO Xiao-yang, XU Guang-li

2016, 25(3):  169-177.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0099

Asbtract ( )   PDF (718KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

By building an equilibrium model in the futures market, this article intends to demonstrate that the movements in futures prices could predict the direction of changes in asset prices, and the movements in open interest could predict the degree of changes on the premise of hedging demand and limited risk absorption capacity. We also propose that the uninformed investors could adjust the returns of futures markets and the uninformed hedgers could stabilize the markets. Besides,we use Chinese commodity futures markets data to test whether the movements in open interest could predict the degree of changes in asset prices. As a result,the empirical study is consistent with our proposition.

Regional Knowledge Creation Model Based on Optimal Combination Weight ——The Empirical Analysis of 31 Province Scope

LI Bai-zhou, QI Xin, XU Guang-yu

2016, 25(3):  178-185.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0100

Asbtract ( )   PDF (705KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to objectively and completely evaluate regional knowledge creation, the paper summarizes the regional knowledge creation ability evaluation index including research and development input, the number of patents and research papers . This paper establishes the regional knowledge creation ability evaluation model based on optimal combination weight and analyzes the regional knowledge creation of 31provinces between 2009~2013. The results show that research and development input, the number of patents and research papers have an effect on knowledge creation. Empirical conclusions will provide practical reference for promoting regional knowledge creation and regional innovation.

Approach to Project Investment Projects Based on the Generalized-Shapley Choquet Integral

MENG Fan-yong, WANG Chen, ZHANG Yan-meng

2016, 25(3):  186-194.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0101

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1118KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

With the socioeconomic development, project investment projects are influenced by more and more factors. The attribute values of projects show the characteristics of uncertainty and fuzziness. This paper analyses the influential factors of project investment projects and constructs the index system of influential factors(namely, the set of attributes). To cope with fuzzy information and reduce the difficulty of the decision making, the decision makers are permitted to apply the language variables to express their qualitative judgments. Then, the given language variables are converted into triangular fuzzy numbers by using their built relationship. After that, we can obtain the quantitative fuzzy judgments. To derive the comprehensive optimal investment project and indicate the interactions between the attributes, the paper uses non-additive measures, Shapley function and the generalized-Shapley Choquet integral to calculate the comprehensive values of investment projects. As a series of development, a new method to project investment projects is developed. Finally, a practical numerical example is furnished to show the feasibility and effectivity of the proposed procedure.

A Modified DEA Model——with the Lag Periods Based on Multiple Correlation Coefficients to Evaluate the Efficiency of Industrial Structure Evolution in China

FAN De-cheng, LI Hao, LIU Yun

2016, 25(3):  195-203.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0102

Asbtract ( )   PDF (720KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to evaluate efficiency of industrial structure evolution in China, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the industrial structure evolution in China. Considering the limitation of the traditional DEA method, the lag period based on the multiple correlation coefficients has been introduced to solve lag problems between the input and output in the evaluation of industrial structure evolution. Thus the modified DEA model is established to assess the efficiency of industrial structure evolution. It is showed that most of the time the efficiency of industrial technology is greater than the scale efficiency, and there is a different degree of redundancy in input elements. In recent years, there has been the trend of alleviation in terms of redundancy degree in the fixed assets investment in primary industry and secondary industry and employed workers, and energy and water consumption was large in secondary industry, while the redundancy level of factors in tertiary industry has deepened. In view of this phenomenon, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.

Research on Business Performance Evaluation of Urban Water Enterprises in China Based on DEA model

SUN Chao-ping, SU Lei, XU Ben-yong

2016, 25(3):  204-210.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0103

Asbtract ( )   PDF (821KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The deepening of urbanization and the aggravation of environmental pollution in China, render it all the more urgent to evaluate and improve business performance of urban water enterprises scientifically. So, this paper selects 12 representative urban water enterprises from the aspects of their regional distribution, quantitative distribution and comprehensive strength based on enterprise types by using DEA model to evaluate their business performance from 2012 to 2014. Results show that the overall efficiency of the sample water enterprises is not high,in which business performance of 6 enterprises achieves the optimal; 5 enterprises with pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency invalid exist at the same time; the remaining 1 enterprise is of valid pure technology efficiency and invalid scale efficiency. In addition, there exist gaps in business performance of different urban water enterprises, and private enterprises’ performance is superior to that of state-owned enterprises. To improve business performance of water enterprises, this paper makes the following policy recommendations: state-owned enterprises need to strengthen technology research and improve the efficiency of management, while private enterprises should expand the market actively, and both ought to establish the community of common interests.

Research on the Equity Structure of the Research Team of the State-owned Enterprise

YANG Shui-li, WANG Chun-xi, LIANG Yong-kang

2016, 25(3):  211-216.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0104

Asbtract ( )   PDF (678KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

As research team is the main part of product and technique innovation in state-owned enterprise, equity incentive to research team is an effective tool to inspire their initiative and creativity. Based on the analysis of equity incentive policy and current situation of state-owned enterprises’ research team, under the situation of the state-owned enterprise research team has technological achievements but does not give economic benefits. Oriented by the technical achievements, we design indexes, weight and scale to measure research team’s performance by the principal components analysis method and weight factor method, ascertain equity distribution of research team in state-owned enterprise. The conclusion will provide a theoretical basis for the implementation of equity incentive for the state-owned enterprise research team.

System Dynamics Model of Coupling Evolution between Quality Culture Transmission and Project Management Behavior

ZHU Zhen-tao, ZHOU Jing, CHEN Xing-guang, LI Qian

2016, 25(3):  217-224.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0105

Asbtract ( )   PDF (2230KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In this paper, the dynamic characteristics of quality cultural construction in mage-projects are analyzed. A coupling evolution system dynamics model of megaproject is put forward, including four main modules: quality culture transmission, work flow, staff assignment, and schedule pressure, to understand the coupling evolution mechanism of quality culture construction, project management practices, and project performance. Simulation results show that some management measure may cause failure of quality culture construction and poor project performance due to the ignorance of ripple effects triggered by management actions, By taking into account rework loops and other dynamic feedbacks in large scale projects, this model can give project managers some useful guidance on how to comprehend the dynamic complexity of quality culture.

Comparative Research into the Best Timing to Merger Based on Poisson Jump

MU Qing-bang

2016, 25(3):  225-231.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0106

Asbtract ( )   PDF (772KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The paper tries to solve the best timing of merger, to evaluate the value of corresponding real options, and makes a comparative analysis between one situation with “Poisson Jump” and the other without it, according to the method of optimal stopping, the theory of real option, the smooth paste conditions and the convert of Douglas Production Function. The study finds that, mergers and acquisitions mainly pursue synergies as an “investment”; whether or not to consider the Poisson Jump, there is a best timing and corresponding acquisition area, where, the best timing is only related to the relative price of stock of the two sides, rather than anything else; in both cases with and without Poisson Jump, the lower thresholds and the upper thresholds shift to the right, but not the simply parallel move, as well as the mergers and acquisitions area become wider, and it needs more new information to hunt the best timing for the merger; when the relative price goes into the feasible area for merger, the merger can be put into practice right now, but otherwise, the best strategy for the merger is to hold the option to wait for more useful information. These findings can provide a theoretical direction and practical reference directly for the merger’s timing decision-making, especially for the transfer of ownership of state-owned enterprises in China.

Hedging Strategies of Commodity Futures Based on the Convenience Yield

ZHANG Mao-jun, WANG Wen-hua, WANG Qin-hui

2016, 25(3):  232-238.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0107

Asbtract ( )   PDF (893KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

It is an important reason that the convenience yield is one of main factors impacting the principle of the long-term equilibrium between commodity spot prices and futures prices, so we study the impact of the convenience yield on the hedging strategies of commodity futures. The closed solution of the optimal hedge ratio is obtained in terms of solving the hedging decision model with maximizing the expected utility function, then an ECT-GARCH econometric model with the convenience yield error correction factor is proposed to estimate the hedge ratio of commodity futures. Moreover, an empirical analysis is researched with the Shanghai aluminum futures and spot prices data from January 2005 to October 2013, it is found that there is a negative relation between the volatility of the change of the convenience yield and the hedge ratio, and the performance of ECT-GARCH model is better than that of both B-GARCH model and ECM-GARCH model in the estimation accuracy of the hedge ratio and the hedging efficiency.

The Analysis of International Crude Oil Prices Volatility Mechanism Based on Behavioral Finance

YAO Xiao-jian, HU Wen-xiu

2016, 25(3):  239-245.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0108

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1384KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The price of international crude oil is of significance for the economic steady growth of China. In the angle of behavioral finance, based on not only introducing rational arbitrageur but also relaxing the assumption that the number of positive feedback trader is equal to the rational trader, this paper designs a positive feedback trade model of international crude oil future market which includs four kinds of trader in order that it could reveal the mechanism that rational speculator manipulates the crude oil market and the trade between the rational speculator and other participant leads to the crude oil price volatility. Finally, the paper verifies the conclusions by numerical simulation. The results show that the rational speculator can manipulate the oil price according to the supply-demand change of international crude oil market, but the rational arbitrageur will hedge oil price volatility in opposite direction. Therefore, the number of passive investor becomes a weight which determines oil price, up or down.If the rational speculator dominates the crude oil market, it will further manipulate the oil price in line with the positive feedback effect of the crude oil price volatility which comes from the positive feedback trader and enlarge the crude oil price volatility range at last. Therefore, we can forecast international crude oil price volatility according to the trader’s behavior of the international crude oil futures market.

Management Science

Study on Scheduling Method Based on Disruption Management for Hybrid N-wait Flow Shop

BO Hong-guang, ZHANG Xin, PAN Yu-tao

2016, 25(3):  246-254.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0109

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1912KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To solve the batch scheduling problem for a random or an anticipated job-change disruption in hybrid no-wait flow shop, a novel scheduling method based on disruption management is presented. The scheduling model is built considering both the target to minimize total weighted completion time(the original objective)and the target to minimize total weighted delay time(the disruption repairing objective). By combining multi-objective approaching policy with the bi-level particle swarm optimization and stochastic probability multi-neighborhood search mechanism, a heuristic hybrid algorithm is proposed. The numerical experiments show that the hybrid PSO algorithm is effective to the disruption management-based scheduling model, including “insert-change” great probability neighborhood search operator.

Comparative Research on Buffer Management for Critical Chain Gaps

CUI Nan-fang, ZHAO Yan, HU Xue-jun, TIAN Wen-di

2016, 25(3):  255-260.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0110

Asbtract ( )   PDF (886KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In the application of critical chain buffer management, when the critical chain and non-critical chains are identified, some resource conflictions emerge again because of the complexity of project, which is to be solved by rescheduling. After rescheduling some new problems emerge, gaps may be created in the critical chain and some feeding buffers appear unavailable for protection. This paper aims to set up a project plan by the scattered buffers method to avoid those problems. And project examples are used to prove the feasibility and universality of this method. Furthermore, simulation experiments are designed to compare the scattered buffered plan with rescheduled critical chain plan. The results of the experiments show that scattered buffered plans perform better in the projects with small activity duration variability.

Pre-warning of Sea Lines of Communication Based on Higher Dimension Catastrophe Model

ZHU Le-qun, LU Jing, LI Jing

2016, 25(3):  261-266.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0111

Asbtract ( )   PDF (810KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to accurately predict the coming danger level before the emergency of sea lines of communication happens, reduce the possible loss of emergency, and improve the management capability of pre-warning and emergency in the field of sea lines of communication, a new method is presented in this paper combining historical cases analysis and higher dimension catastrophe model to deal with the complexity of pre-warning for security of sea lines of communication. Through analyzing characteristics of historical cases, we obtain the risk factors and construct one index system of pre-warning. Then, we apply generalized catastrophe model which allows a higher dimension to construct safety pre-warning model and gets the threshold value based on the data from historical cases. Lastly, we select the actual case to test the model, and it is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level.

Innovation Decisions, Perils and Profit Allocation of Pharmaceutical Industry-University-Institute Alliance

ZHANG Xin-xin, HOU Wen-hua, SHEN Cheng-lin

2016, 25(3):  267-273.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0112

Asbtract ( )   PDF (596KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the industry-university-institute cooperation innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, we formulate a bilateral bargaining game between two competing pharmaceutical firms and an institute to analyze impacts of innovation value and bargaining powers on performance of alliance members, and discuss impacts of cooperative innovation on drug prices, pharmaceutical firm’s market shares and profits as well as the social welfare. Further, we investigate pharmaceutical firms’ innovation decisions and probable perils of innovation in the presence of competition and negotiation. The results derived from model solution are as follows: First, innovation can improve the social welfare but does not necessarily enhance drugs’ price and firms’ performance. Second, a pharmaceutical firm with higher bargaining power does not necessarily gain higher profit allocation. The final profits of firms and the institute depend on the combined factors. Finally, though cooperative innovation can enhance consumers’ purchasing willing, it is not always an optimal strategy for pharmaceutical firms and even lead to the lose-lose outcome. In a word, our results provide practical significances for promoting industry-university-institute cooperation and enhancing its effects in the pharmaceutical industry.

Design of Incentive Mechanism for Service Outsourcing Under Client Company Participation

LU Fang, WANG Dan-dan, LUO Ding-ti

2016, 25(3):  274-282.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0113

Asbtract ( )   PDF (1088KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

It is difficult for the client participation, as well as the service vendor’s effort level and the specific assets investment level of cooperation between the two sides to make an effective verification in service outsourcing, which may lead to moral hazard, and reduce the service outsourcing performance, and even lead to the failure of service outsourcing. In view of this, the client’s participation degree and the vendor’s asset specificity investment level which influence the design of incentive contract are analyzed from the perspective of establishing a service outsourcing principal agent framework and optimization theory, and they have been verified by using numerical simulation. The results indicate that, when the client puts more efforts in the service outsourcing cooperative production, the client incentive for service vendor will increase but the increase rate is slow, and the service vendor’s efforts will be accelerated to improve; when vendor’s asset specificity investment level is higher, its level of effort will also accelerate and meanwhile, the client will increase the growth of the incentive coefficient. When the specific assets investment level reaches a certain level, the growth rate reaches the maximum incentive coefficient.

Setting and Adjustment to Intercity Railway Properties Based on Maximum Benefit

GUO Chui-jiang

2016, 25(3):  283-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0114

Asbtract ( )   PDF (621KB) ( )  

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to provide convenience for intercity railway enterprises to adjust intercity railway transport properties timely and reasonably, and make them in normal operation and under sustainable development facing the intense competition among the various transportation modes in regional transport corridor, characteristics of transportation tools between big cities are analyzed, and their quantitative descriptions are given. Based on maximizing profit for intercity railway enterprise, considering the constraints that minimum social benefits should be acquired by intercity enterprises, a multivariate nonlinear model for intercity railway property setting and adjustment is built, and it is transformed into unconstrained nonlinear model with penalty functions and solved with step acceleration method. Finally, the model and algorithm designed are applied to the property setting of Chang-Zhu-Tan intercity railway transport at its early stage. The results show that the model and algorithm provided in this paper are feasible. The technical and economic characteristics gained of intercity railway could provide references for the enterprises.