Table of Content

20 December 2016, Volume 25 Issue 6

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Study of Supply Chain Coordination Based on CVaRand Market-Oriented Option Pricing

CAI Xin, SUN Jing-chun

2016, 25(6):  1-10.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0194

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This article studies the coordination problem in a supply chain that consists of a risk-neutral supplier and a risk-averse retailer based on Conditional Value-at-Risk(CVaR)and Market-Oriented Option Pricing rules. First, an objective function that contains a risk aversion coefficient of retailer is established in a CVaR framework, and the relationship between the parameters of option that can coordinate supply chain is derived. Then according to Black-Schoels Model, the relationship between the parameters of option that can meet Market-Oriented Option Pricing rules is derived. Through the above two conditions, we prove the existence of a option combination(o^*,e^*)which can meet the requirement of supply chain coordination condition and Market-Oriented Option Pricing rules simultaneously, it means that the option contract can coordinate supply chain very well under the Market-Oriented Pricing rules. Besides, we also analyse the effect of relevant parameters on option contract and the profit of Supply chain participants. Lastly, an numerical example is given to prove the peroration mentioned above.

Multi-product Pricing of Supply Chain Based on the Bundling Strategy

PAN Lin, ZHOU Shui-yin

2016, 25(6):  11-17.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0195

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This study considers the bundling strategy in a manufacturer-leading supply chain with a multi-product manufacturer, who sells two complementary products to an independent retailer. We establish four supply chain pricing decision model, including the pure components—pure components, pure components—pure bundling, pure bundling—pure components, and pure bundling—pure bundling model, with considering the different bundling strategies between the manufacturer and retailer. By applying a game-theoretical method, then corresponding equilibrium solutions are obtained. Finally, by comparing and analyzing the optimal profit in different decision cases we explore the relationship among product complementarity, the ration of unit marginal profit and the optimal bundling strategies. The result indicates that for manufacturer, it is always superior to take the pure components strategy; however, for the retailer, the optimal strategy is determined by the degree of product complementarity and the ration of the unit profit margins between the complementary products. Moreover, the retailer's optimal strategy turns pure bundling to pure components when the product complementarity increases or the ration of unit marginal profit decresases.

Multi-Period Risk Sharing Contract for Three-Channel Supply Chainof Seasonal Products Under Double Price Regulation

PENG Hong-jun, ZHOU Mei-hua, WANG Fu-dong

2016, 25(6):  18-24.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0196

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Taking the three-channel supply chain of seasonal products under double price regulation as a study object, the optimal decision-making and profit in high season and low season are researched. On this basis, the coordination contract and model on multi-period risk sharing are established, in order to achieve the total profit maximization of the supply chains and a win-win situation for all enterprises. The research indicates that as the raw materials in channel 1 are subject to the price cap regulation, the ordering could not be completely fulfilled in high season. As the price of the final product is strictly regulated, the shortage probability of finished goods supply may be increased in high season; Under the multi-period risk sharing mechanism, the decisions of the supplier and the manufacturer are consistent with decision of the centralized case, so that the spillover profits under the inter-temporal coordination mechanism are allocated on a win-win basis. Under the channel coordination of the supplier and the manufacturer, however, the shortage probability of finished goods supply may be increased further in high season.

Research on the Behavior of Member Firms in SupplyChain Network Under Carbon Emission Tax Policy

YANG Yu-xiang, XU Qian, MENG Li-jun, ZHANG Bao-you

2016, 25(6):  25-33.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0197

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This paper studies the behavioral response of member firms in the supply chain network to carbon emission tax policy, and the competition and interactive behaviors among these member firms in the network under the policy, aiming at providing decision-making basis for environmental departments to design carbon emission tax policy. The general framework that we develop allows for three distinct types of carbon taxation decision scheme: decentralized scheme, a centralized scheme which assumes a fixed bound, a centralized scheme which allows the bound to be a function of the tax. Along with the three taxation schemes, the change of member firms’ profits and interactive behaviors of those will be studied. The equilibrium conditions of member firms are given, and are transformed into variational inequalities. We develop the game models of member firms in supply chain network under carbon emission tax policy, and present solution method of the models based on Euler method. Finally, the developed model is applied to numerical examples, and the equilibrium results are tompiled and discussed. The reactions including production decision, distribution decision, and carbon emission are analyzed. We study how government adjusts carbon emission tax to obtain desired environmental goal properly. Meanwhile, according to the equilibrium results for economical indicators of firms under different scheme and bound, how government also should know how to adjust the environmental goal of carbon emission.

Transfer Pricing Strategy in an Assembly Supply Chain Basedon Cooperative Game Analysis

LI Chang-wen, ZHOU Yong-wu, ZHUO Xiang-zhi, XIAO Dan

2016, 25(6):  34-38.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0198

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The transfer pricing decision for a integrated assembly system with n upstream suppliers and a downstream assembler is considered, where the upstream suppliers sell n complementary components to a downstream assembler, then the downstream assembler sell products to the market. The downstream division faces a price-sensitive deterministic demand. The n upstream suppliers can independently determine their retail prices to the downstream assembler, and decide whether or not they will sell to the downstream assembler at negotiated transfer prices. Each supplier and assembler have the freedom to decide whether to cooperate with each other. The results show that the profit of the assembly system is the highest in the grand coalition structure. To allocate the system-wide profit between upstream suppliers and downstream assembler, we construct a cooperative game, show the supermodular of the game, and then compute the Shapley value-based transfer prices for the assembly system.

A Matching Order-Based Coalition Formation Decision-Making Method forCooperative Games and Its Application

GUAN Fei, LI Jun, ZHANG Qiang

2016, 25(6):  39-46.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0199

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The formation problem of a coalition is the most important part in cooperative games and it will affect the stability and sustainable development of a cooperation process. In this paper, by analyzing various factors affecting the formation of a coalition, firstly we give a set of subjective preference scale values between players in their selection process to quantify some psychological preference factors. Then we provide a profit function between players, so some realistic factors are quantitatively expressed. And furthermore some new concepts such as matching unite, priority matching unite, direct interaction matching are defined, a matching order-based coalition formation decision model is proposed and two important theorems are given to prove that a coalition is formed inevitability under special circumstances. After that some algorithm steps are given. Finally, by a concrete example, the effectiveness of our model is verified. The results show that our model can effectively provide a series of feasible and stable coalition structures and can show the evolution process of the grand coalition quickly. So our model will lay a sound basis for solving some coalition formation problems.

Multi-attribute Unilateral Matching Decision Based on EvidentialReasoning and Optimal Assignment Strategy

LIN Yang, WANG Ying-ming, CHEN Sheng-qun

2016, 25(6):  47-52.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0200

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Aimed For at the problem of preference failure within one-sided in matching decision making, an approach based on evidential reasoning and optimal assignment strategy is proposed. Agents on the onesied provide multiple attribute specified by those on the other side. Various types of values, such as real number, intervals or fuzzy numbers are involved in the attribute description. Accordingly, the other-sided agents provide their weight information for each attribute. Thus, the matching degree between a pair the of agents is generated by a recursive computation of evidential reasoning. An optimization model is built based on the matching degree and the matching results are obtained by solving this model. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

Study on Coordination of Revenue Sharing Model ofSupply Chain Based on M-CVaR

ZHONG Chang-bao, DING Yan-xue, ZHANG Hong-ru

2016, 25(6):  53-58.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0201

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Revenue sharing contract can effectively improve the operation efficiency of the supply chain. In practice,the member of the supply chain is risk neutral, disgust, and risk preferences.This paper studies the coordination problems of revenue sharing contract of supply chain, in which supply chain memberships are risk-taking, risk-neutral or risk-averse, using the M-CVaR theory. First we establish M-CVaR model of retailers and supply chain based on the revenue sharing contract, and then research the coordination problems of revenue sharing contract of supply chain. Finally, we study the impacts of risk preference level of supply chain members on optimal order quantity and the wholesale prices.After obtaining the corresponding relationship, the authors validate the theoretical results through a numerical example. The results show that the optimal wholesale price decreases with the increasing of retailer’s coefficient of pessimism and increases with the rise in supplier’s coefficient of pessimism. The optimal order quantity decreases with the rise in coefficient of pessimism of retailer and supplier. Therefore,the design of revenue sharing contract of supply chain should consider the risk preference level of the members.

Channel Choice of the Electronic Retailer with Delivery-timeSensitive Customers Under Information Asymmetry

HE Yan, XU He, MA Shi-hua

2016, 25(6):  59-67.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0202

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This article investigates the channel choice of the electronic retailer(e-retailer)who is a retail platform owner—reselling or open the online platform, when consumers are delivery-time sensitive and have private information. Reselling means that the platform owner first purchases from the manufacturer and then resells to end consumers. Opening platform allows the manufacturer to access end-customers directly, but the manufacturer should pay a percentage to the platform owner. When the e-retailer chooses reselling, we analyze which quotation mode: UQM(uniform quotation mode)or DQM(differentiated quotation mode)is more profitable for the e-retailer if the purchasing price is exogenous. When the e-retailer chooses opening his platform, we analyze how the percentage fee affects the manufacturer’s quotation mode if the fee is exogenous. The results show that: (1)the e-retailer may choose reselling when the purchasing price is high; (2)the e-retailer may decide to open platform when the purchasing price is low and the fee is low. In addition, we discuss the influence of customer types and the private delay cost rate to the optimal channel choice of the e-retailer through numerical experiments.

Model of Disruption Management with Consumption Behaviorin Logistic Distribution of Perishable Goods

DING Qiu-lei, HU Xiang-pei, JIANG Yang, HU Run-bo

2016, 25(6):  68-74.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0203

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It is difficult to continue to carry out the original plan effectively when the disruption occurs in logistic distribution of perishable goods. Based on disruption management, this research aims to improve the science of the decision making by combining the consumption behavior in behavioral science with the quantitative analysis in operations research. At the beginning, the customers are segmented from the following three aspects: recency, purchase frequency and average purchase amount. Then, the problem of disruption management is divided into two stages: the first stage is to handle the customers with priority service and the second stage is to handle the customers with normal service. Furthermore, a model of disruption management characteristic of two-stage and multi-objective is formed and an improved ant colony optimization is put forward to solve the above model. The computational test shows that although it requires the higher cost, our approach finishes the task of the more important customer. The result proves that our approach is helpful to improve the potential profit of enterprise for minimizing the system deviation in logistic distribution.

Scheduling Optimizing of Jumping Queue Ship in Container TerminalBased on Improved Plant Growth Simulation Algorithm

WANG Nuo, SHEN Ming-qi, LIU Zhong-bo

2016, 25(6):  75-82.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0204

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In order to solve the berth scheduling problem of unexpected arrived vessels, this papermodels an optimization model which aims to minimum cost of arranging the operations of unexpected arrived vessels from the port’s view and solves it by an improved plant growth simulation algorithm(PGSA).The analysis of an actual case shows that the model and algorithm can effectively solve the above problems and achieve good results. Genetic algorithm is also included in this paper to compare with improved PGSA, the results show that improved PGSA has better speed and precision, thus more effective. The model and algorithm in this paper will solve the berth scheduling problem of unexpected arrived vessels more effectively and provide ideas and methods in container terminal under special conditions.

Optimization of Supplier’s Delivery Scheduling for Periodical Demand

YU Hai-yan, SHEN Cheng-ran, FU Zheng-song

2016, 25(6):  83-90.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0205

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This paper is focused on improving supplier’s service level in VMI system. We present a delivery scheduling problem to minimize the stock-out losses, when the retailers face a periodical demand and the supplier adopts direct delivery strategy. Considering the characteristic of retailers’ demand intervals, we design RTE strategy. For three different kinds of loss rates of stock out in reality (marginal loss rate, fixed loss rate, and increasing loss rate), we prove the approximation ratios of RTE strategy in different conditions respectively. After analyzing the approximation ratios and two computational examples, we find RTE strategy performs best for marginal loss rate, and even it can be an optimal stragety in some cases. The results are of significance to supplier’s delivery scheduling for a periodical demand.

Max-npv Project Scheduling Problems with Generalized PrecedenceRelations and Its Genetic Algorithm

LIU Yang, CHEN Zhi , BAI Si-jun

2016, 25(6):  91-98.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0206

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In the classical Max-npv project scheduling problems, an activity must have been finished before any of its successors can be started. This basic precedence concept cannot cover all the relationships between activities in reality. A new Max-npv project scheduling model is established in this paper, in which activities are subject to generalized precedence relations. A two stage genetic algorithm is developed for the problem. In the first stage, the outer genetic algorithm determines a set of task execution modes; in the second stage, the inner genetic algorithm is responsible for searching the best schedules of activities. In the inner genetic algorithm, the difference in the start time of tasks is used as the coding representation. This coding method can simplify the crossover and mutation operator. While the repair operator is also built to ensure the task starttime meets the cycle structures’ requirements. Finally, the two-stage algorithm is tested on an example, and the result validates the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Research on Reliable Path Selection for EmergencyResources Distribution Considering the Road Repair

WANG Jing, YI Xian-qiang, ZHU Jian-ming

2016, 25(6):  99-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0207

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After the disaster, the key step of emergency rescue is to select reliable path to complete the emergency resources distribution. In this paper, road damage and traffic reliability are introduced to describe the effects on the distribution of emergency resource. Emergency resource distribution reliable path optimization model is established to maximize the efficiency of distribution. Then a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm has been used to solve the model. With the help of empirical analysis in combination with an example, the model is proved suitable, which has a practical significance according to the distribution of emergency supplies under uncertain road network.

Generalized Fuzzy Variable Linear Programming withIntuitive Fuzzy Elastic Constraints

ZHANG Jing-liang, CHEN Zhi-ning

2016, 25(6):  105-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0208

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In this paper, a class of new fuzzy variable linear programming problem with intuitionistic fuzzy elasticconstraints is constructed and discussed based on the fuzzy structured element method. Firstly, the authors introduce the basic principle of structured element and make an analysis of the connection between weight function and risk attitude of decision-makers. Then, by choosing the risk neutral decision attitude to define an order relation and expanding Verdegay’s fuzzy linear programming method, the authors transform the new fuzzy variable linear programming problem into two general fuzzy variable linear programming with fuzzy elastic constraints .The intuitionistic optimal solution of the two general fuzzy variable linear programming with fuzzy elastic constraints is given. Finally, the authors further illustrate the effectiveness of this method by a numerical example.

Application Research

Analysis of Option Contract under Retailer’s Fairness Concerns

XU Ming-hui, HU Bing

2016, 25(6):  112-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0209

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A properly designed option contract can coordinate the supply chain with rational channel members. This paper studies a supply chain system in which the retailer exhibits the behavior of fairness concerns. We examine the retailer’s optimal ordering decision with an option contract and provide conditions under which the supply chain can be coordinated. The results show that the retailer’s preference for fairness has significant influences on channel coordination with option contracts. Although the pricing rule of coordinative option contract keeps unchanged when the retailer becomes fairness-concerned, the possible maximum profit that the supplier can squeeze by an option contract will decrease with the degree of fairness concerns. Moreover, the selective range of the option contracts that can coordinate the supply chain shrinks and even disappears as the degree of the retailer’ fairness concerns increases. Numerical examples further verify these findings, and illustrate that even if an option contract can coordinate the supply chain, the fairness-concerned retailer could reject it because of its negative utility.

An Empirical Study on Commercial Banks’ Efficiency in Chinaunder the Background of Internet Finance

GUO Jie, ZHOU Jing

2016, 25(6):  120-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0210

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The efficiency of 16 listed commercial banks during 8 years(2007~2014)is measured based on CRS and VRS model of data envelopment analysis(DEA)under the background of internet finance. According to the 16 commercial banks comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency changes, internet finance impact on commercial banks is analyzed. The results show that the change of commercial banks overall efficiency fluctuation and the Internet financial environment is basically consistent, commercial banks scale efficiency change and technical efficiency change are the same, and the scale efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks is higher than the state-owned commercial banks.

Empirical Study on Robust Mean-CVaR Portfolio Model:A Safety Criterion Perspective

LIU Jia-he, JIN Xiu, YUAN Ying, ZHENG Hong

2016, 25(6):  128-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0211

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Considering the uncertainty in the real stock market, the paper regards the security return as an interval random variable and develops a robust mean-CVaR portfolio model based on the robust theory. Following the duality theory, the proposed model can be transformed as a linear programming problem, which reduces the computational complexity and contributes to solve a large-scale portfolio model. To consider investors’ safety requirement, a concept of the most violated probability is introduced, which can be used to adjust the conservatism of the proposed model and reflect investors’ safety requirement intuitively. The performance of the proposed model is empirically studied. The result shows that the proposed model can be used to construct portfolios that exhibit robustness against the expected return, meet investors’ safety requirement and are viable in real investment.

Portfolio Selection Based on Polyhedral Multi-period Risk MeasuresDerived from Conditional Value-at-risk

XIAO Yu-gu, WU Feng, LI Zhen-zhen

2016, 25(6):  133-138.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0212

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In order to solve the problems of multi-period portfolio, a multi-period investment portfolio optimal process is designed. The process can solve the problems by minimizing the risk with some benefits constraints, using a series of fast algorithm modules. It is achieved by combining the nonparametric sampling method, clustering-based multistage scenario generation method, and multi-period polyhedral risk measures. The process is proposed based on some calculations, which is simple, reasonable and easy to implement. The empirical study on the financial markets data in China demonstrates good practicality of the whole process.

Study of Bi-objective Project Portfolio Selection Model Basedon the Capital Present Value Constraints

LI Xing-mei, WEI Han-jing

2016, 25(6):  139-143.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0213

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In recent years, project portfolio selection problem has attracted much attention,and how to select the right project portfolio to satisfy the long-term development strategy of enterprise has become an important thing. Therefore, this paper builds a bi-objective project portfolio selection model, namely the maximum of net present value and utility on the basis of the divisibility of project. This paper converts the capital constraint to the capital present value. By doing this, this model becomes simple. Finally, one numerical example is given to illustrate the model. The result shows that the bi-objective project portfolio selection model is more suitable to the long-term development strategy of enterprises, and this model also provides perfect theoretical basement to investment decision-makers for selecting the appreciate projects.

Venture Capital and the Operational Performanceof Chinese Entrepreneurial Firms:Disentangling the Ex-post Effect From the Ex-ante Effect

YANG Xi, WANG Su-sheng, PENG Ke

2016, 25(6):  144-154.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0214

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From the perspective of dealing with the endogenous relationship between Venture Capital and entrepreneurial firms, this paper aims to examine whether it is the superior performance of entrepreneurial firms that attracts the entry of VC investments or the active involvement of VC investments that leads to the performance improvement of ventures. Based on the panel data of PSM matched sample firms on the SME and ChiNext boards in China, this paper uses logit models, DID treatment regressions and the two-stage Heckman models combined with endogenous switching methodology to differentiate VC firms’ ex-ante and ex-post impact on the performance of entrepreneurial firms. The results demonstrate that VC firms can screen the better-performed ventures during the ex-ante process, but impose the significant treatment effect on the ventures’ operational performance in a negative way after the entry of VC investments. Furthermore, the characteristics of VC investments have significant moderating impact on VC firms’ ex-post effect. The young and inexperienced VC firms exert greater negative ex-post effect on the venture firms’ performance than those mature VC firms; the late stage VC programs have greater negative ex-post effect than early stage VC programs; the VC programs in traditional industries exert greater negative ex-post effect than those in high-tech industries.

Research on the Oil and Gas Resource Tax Rate in ChinaBased on Maximization of Social Welfare

GAO Xin-wei, ZHANG Shu-liang, CHEN Hao, LI Jie-yi

2016, 25(6):  155-161.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0215

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Reasonable tax can regulate the resources of oil and gas to optimize production, and the optimize production decisions can balance the interests of present and future generations and also maximize social welfare inter-temporal resource in development. From the perspective of optimal allocation of mineral resources, we build decision models to develop oil and gas resources to maximize social welfare maximization and corporate profits, and further through the optimal control approach, under the condition of resource development decisions to maximize social welfare, we study three different forms of regulation of oil and gas resources tax planning for resource development. The study finds: (1)ad valorem taxes, whose optimal rate is 26.4%, so that the government not only guarantees the maximization of social welfare, but also gets more tax revenue; (2)from the amount of taxes levied, the amount of the tax rate is 1.77￥ per ton, so that it can ensure the maximization of social welfare, but it has less government tax revenue; (3)tax levy reserves: social reserves taxes under welfare maximization is -0.13￥ per ton, which the government needs to subsidize businesses, although it can ensure the maximization of social welfare, but this will put on the financial pressure.

Analysis of Empirical Relationship of Energy Consumption andEconomic Growth Based on Non-parameter STRModel in the Period of 1980~2011

ZHANG You-zhi, DANG Xing-hua

2016, 25(6):  162-174.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0216

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Based on annual data over the period from 1980 to 2011, this paper applies STR model to analyze the relationship between Chinese energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical results show that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is nonlinear. The conclusion shows the relationship between energy consumption and coal consumption and petroleum consumption and economic growth is appropriate to utilize LSTR1 model to simulate. Meanwhile, the relationship between and electricity consumption and economic growth is appropriate to utilize LSTR1 model to simulate.

A Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation MethodEmbodying Development Tendency

YI Ping-tao, ZHOU Yi, GUO Ya-jun, LI Wei-wei

2016, 25(6):  175-180.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0217

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Aiming to consider the development trend of the evaluation index in dynamic comprehensive evaluation,the paper constructs a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of development tendency considering the influences of the evaluation index development tendency, index weights and time weights. The development factor is defined to denote the development trend of the evaluation index. On the basis of scatter degree,the attribute weights are obtained via the method to the minimize the sum of squares of deviations. Additionally, the time weights are determined by the model of time function which implies laying more stress on the present information than on the past. Finally,the model is applied to evaluate the degree of the macro economic development of western China.

Credit Rating of Small Enterprises Based on Unbalanced Data

CHENG Yan-qiu

2016, 25(6):  181-189.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0218

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Small enterprises credit risk evaluation is an issue of banks’ risk management, and is also related to the economic and social stability. For small enterprises loans, the default samples are far less than the non-default samples. Also, the impact on banks of default customers’ misjudgment is much larger than the impact on banks of non-default customers’ misjudgment. In this paper, this research will use the unbalanced support vector machine to weight the evaluation index and construct the credit scoring model for small enterprises. Firstly, the index weights are determined, according to the influence of the specific evaluation index on default and the influence of the index data on default. The greater the influence on default is,the bigger the weight will be.Secondly, using the correct rate of default samples and F-score as the evaluation model test standard, it will change the phenomenon that the overall accuracy is high, but the default samples’ accuracy is not high, which is caused by the unbalanced data. Finally, an empirical study of a Chinese national commercial bank’s of 3111 small enterprises loan observations is given and the result shows that industry climate index, capital immobilized ratio, net cash levels, Engel’s coefficient, operating profit are the key index of credit rating model of small enterprises.

An Individual Strength Identity-oriented Comprehensive EvaluationMethod of Interval-valued Intuitionistic Number

ZHAO Xi’nan, TANG Liang

2016, 25(6):  190-194.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0219

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To address the problem of multiple-indicator comprehensive evaluation, in which indictors’ values are interval-valued intuitionistic numbers, a comprehensive evaluation method which can recognize individual strengths is propsed. In the loght of the TOPSIS model, the weighted distances between indictors’ values and their ideal values denotes evaluation objects’ performances. From the viewpoint of being most beneficial to evaluation objects, the respective weights of evaluation bojects are obtained according to the mathematical programming model. Based on the aggregated scores of self-evaluation and peer-evaluation values, evaluation objects are ranked. Finally, an application example is given which indicates the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Regime Dynamic Analysis on the Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effectof FDI on Domestic Investment

PAN Xiong-feng, PENG Xiao-xue, KONG Xin-nan

2016, 25(6):  195-201.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0220

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By using the quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the regime states, transition probability and the regime correlation between the foreign direct investment(FDI)and domestic investment by applying MS-VECM model. The results show that foreign direct investment has a crowding-out effect on domestic investment during the whole sample period, but from the view of the dynamic time path, the effect of foreign direct investment on domestic investment is inconsistent in different economic development stages, which presents the switching appearance of the regime, the performance during the first quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2005 presents the crowding-out effect on domestic investment, while in the fourth quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2013 presents the crowding-in effect.

Software Licensing Mode Choice with Usage Cost

ZHANG Xiao-juan, ZHANG Sheng-hao

2016, 25(6):  202-208.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0221

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Significant usage costs may be incurred when customers adopt software. Customers pay full rates under perpetual licensing mode while part of the usage cost can be shared by the software vendor under Software-as-a-Service mode. Due to her expertise, the vendor is usually able to further reduce the usage cost she pays. This paper investigates the effect of the usage cost, cost sharing and cost reduction on software licensing mode choice by examining consumers’ choice and the vendor’s pricing strategy through two-stage models under each licensing mode. The results indicate that Software-as-a-Service mode is usually superior to perpetual licensing mode with higher usage costs, larger proportion of the usage cost shared by the vendor, and greater cost reduction achieved by the vendor, and vice versa.

Corporate Default Probability Model Based on Credit Spreadand Logistic Regression

CAO Yong, LI Meng-gang, LI Gang, HONG Ya-hui

2016, 25(6):  209-223.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0222

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There exist two problems in the application of Logistic model to calculate corporate default probabilities. One is that Logistic model can not be estimated or the results calculated are incorrect on the condition the corporate default records database is unavailable or the database is not typical. The other is the differences in distribution characteristics of financial indicators between industries are usually ignored in current Logistic default probability models. It leads to the decrease in the accuracy of corporate default probability calculation. To solve the first problem, the corporate default probabilities implied in the corporate bond credit spreads are calculated. Then the parameters of Logistic regresion are estimated on the basis of Logistic transformation, so that the corporate default probabilities calculated conform to the actual situation of the credit market. To solve the second problem, it is confirmed there exist significant differences in distribution characteristics of key financial indicators between industries by singel factor variance analysis. It is also confirmed the accuracy of corporate default probabilites is improved significantly, calculated by the Logistic models established respectively for each industry. The process of establishment of Logistic default probability model is as follows. The financial indicators which reflect similar information are deleted through correlation analysis of financial indicators initially selected. The financial indicators with weak explanatory capacity to corporate default probability are deleted through coefficient significant test of financial indicators. According to the criterion of linear regression fitness, the key financial indicators of Logistic default probability model are selected for different industries. Logistic default probability models are established for 5 sample industries such as machinery and equipment industryetc, providing models and methods to calculate the corporate default probabilities accurately for sample industries. The innovations and characteristics of the paper are as follows. Firstly, the corporate default probabilities implied in the bond market are calculated according to the credit spreads of corporate bonds, and taken as the explained variable of the Logistic linear regression after Logistic transformation, solving the problem to estimate the parameters of Logistic default probability models without the corporate default records database. Secondly, through single factor variance analysis, it confirms that there exist significant differences in distribution characteristics of financial indicators between industries, and it indicates that the Logistic default probability model should be established respectively for each industry. Thirdly, through correlation analysis of financial indicators initially selected, the financial indicators which reflect similar information are deleted; through coefficient significant test of financial indicators, the financial indicators with weak explanatory capacity to corporate default probability are deleted, which ensures the key financial indicators selected finally are reasonable. Fourthly, the empirical study shows that the key financial indicators of Logistic default probability models are different between industries, and the parameters of the same financial indicators are distinctive in different Logistic default probability models. The empirical study also shows the goodness of fit and the adjusted goodness of fit are enhanced nearly one time when the Logistic default probability models are established respectively for each industry instead of being as a whole. The results of the study have reference value for improving the accuracy of corporate default probability calculation, and for loan pricing, corporate bond pricing and credit risk management of commercial banks.

EWMA Control Chart with Variable Sample Sizeunder Non-normal Distribution

XUE Li

2016, 25(6):  224-229.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0223

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In order to improve the monitoring efficiency of control charts, the EWMA control chart under non-normal distribution with variable sample size(VSS)is constructed in this paper; The Markov chain method is applied to calculate the average run length(ARL)of the VSS EWMA control charts. The computing results show that the VSS EWMA control chart under non-normal distribution is the more efficient in detecting shifts than the traditional EWMA control chart, and has a shorter the average run length to find the abnormal fluctuation.

Research on “Chinese-style Road Crossing” Under the Perspectiveof Dynamic Evolutionary Game Theory

LIN Xu-xun, YUAN Peng-cheng, HUO Liang-an

2016, 25(6):  230-235.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0224

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Focusing on pedestrians with a tendency to run red lights in the “Chinese-style road crossing” phenomenon as the research subject, the characteristics of these pedestrians’ behaviors are analyzed and a corresponding model is established based on dynamic evolutionary game theory to analyze the game selection strategies at different moments and conditions and demonstrate the validity of the related management measures. Through numerical simulations several conclusions can be reached as follows:(1)All pedestrians choose to run red light in situation of no punitive measures; (2)The “Chinese-style road crossing” phenomenon can only be improved when punitive measures reach a certain level of intensity, otherwise minor punitive measures achieve no significant effects; (3)Besides the high-level punitive measures the pedestrian’s overall quality and law-abiding consciousness should also be enhanced;(4) Unnecessary long red light waiting time can force the road-crossers to run red lights. Following improvement strategies can be obtained correspondingly based on the above analysis: Firstly optimize the signal timing to reasonably shorten the road-crossers’ waiting time; and then further enhance the road-crossers’ overall quality and law-abiding consciousness while intensifying the punitive measures.

Research on the Chinese University Teachers’ Pay Mentality andManagement Strategy Based on Mental Accounting

LIU Xiao-feng, REN Chen-chen, WAN Lun-lai

2016, 25(6):  236-241.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0225

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In this paper, the data is collected by issuing questionnaire. Based on mental accounting theory, by using principal component analysis and correlation analysis, this paper systematically studies Chinese university teachers’ pay mentality. Based on the study result, two conclusions can be drawn. First, both university teachers’ economic account and psychic account have stable dimensional structure and coding catalogue. Second, university teachers prefer psychic account. The preference has a direct correlation with the level of monetary compensation. When the level of monetary compensation is under certain level, university teachers prefer prefer psychic account more. But when it exceeds the certain level, the intensity of the preference will gradually weaken. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions and hopes to provide some valuable guidance for university’s scientifically formulating salary system.

Management Science

Scheduling and Cost Analysis of Maintenance in Wind PowerPlants Based on Service-Manufacturing

LIU Hong-wei, ZHENG Fei, DU Wen-chao, FAN Rui

2016, 25(6):  242-249.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0226

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After considering the problem of transformation with the service manufacturing encountered by the manufacturing enterprises of wind power equipment, a theory has been developed in which the equipment manufacturers are associated with each other and provided maintenance service by an institution of service providing base. Within constrains of maintenance time, spare part transportation time and service capability, optimization about the service scheduling is introduced to minimize the repair cost. We use genetic algorithm to solve this problem and give a new hybrid coding method of genetic algorithm based on the specifics of wind power plants and the service team. This method has a good character, for its preclusion of illegal solutions in the process of genetic algorithm. The method’s adaptability is substantiated by introducing a case study including specific data from real manufacturers, plants and their service teams. At last, an excellent outcome of the case study is generated by programming in Matlab.

A Two-Stage Queuing Model for Coordinating the Product Entry-ExitService of Manufacturers’ Warehouse

HUANG Dong-bin, WANG Yang-fan

2016, 25(6):  250-257.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0227

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Optimizing the coordinated service levels of product entry and exit processes is becoming a crucial task for modern manufacturers to improve the efficiency of warehouse service, reduce enterprise logistics cost, and balance the workload of employees. Thus here the queuing processes of both the product entry and exit services are studied, and a two-stage collaborative queuing model is built to assist the optimal configuration of workforces under a control target of waiting time. The model introduces overflow mechanism and tandem-service mechanism to enable the coordination between the two parts of the warehouse service. Three scenarios are modeled, such as, both front and back services have vacancy, busy in the front while vacant at the back service, vacant(or busy)in the front while the back desks are busy. At all these scenarios, this paper describes each state-transition model, the probability of all system states, as well as the system performance measures such as the rate of workforce usage, queue length, waiting time, and the probability that waiting time exceeds any given operational target. A case of manufacturing enterprise warehouse management of finished product is studied to validate the model. The study shows, in comparison with the existing practice of M/M/S queuing system of the enterprise, the two-stage collaborative queuing system with an overflow mechanism can effectively improve the service efficiency, reduce the average waiting-time and the internal logistics cost resulted from the imbalanced workload of product entry and exit services. Therefore, applying such a model can become an important practice for enhancing the collaborative management level of enterprise internal logistics, as well as the level of automation.

Game Analysis between Government and Enterprises and the Strategy ofGovernment Subsidies under Low-Carbon Economy

REN Jie, HE Ping, GONG Ben-gang

2016, 25(6):  258-265.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0228

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In the context of low-carbon economy, we study the effect of government subsidies strategy by using three modes of game between government and enterprises. By introducing the two stage dynamic game method, we analyze the effect of the different subsidy modes on demand, product price, the manufacturer’s profit, consumer surplus and social welfare. This study shows that the price coefficient and the effect of the subsidy on demand will affect the choice of the government subsidy policy, and we get the relationship between social welfare and subsidy per unit product. In order to provide a support for the government to make scientific subsidies decisions and for the manufacturers and consumers to make good decisions in the context of government subsidies, we analyse the impact of different government subsidies modes on the manufacturer’s revenue, consumer surplus and social welfare.

Study on the Relationship Between Regional Openness and EnterprisesTechnological Innovation Capabilities Based on the Directed Acyclic Graph

LI Miao-miao, XIAO Hong-jun, LI Hai-bo

2016, 25(6):  266-273.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0229

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This purpose of this paper is to explore the corresponding period causality between the regional openness and enterprises’ technological innovation capabilities(TICs), based on the existing studies which ignore the corresponding period causality between the regional openness and enterprises’ TICs. We use the directed acyclic graph to make an empirical analysis based on the panel data of the 284 listed of strategic emerging industries companies during the period of 2001~2011 in China. The results shows that: enterprises R&D funding investment in the strategic emerging industries is greater, R&D volatility is lower, and the enterprises innovation output is much more; the regional foreign registered capital not only has a directly positive effect on local enterprises innovation output, but also an indirectly positive impact on the innovation output by the firms R&D funding investment; while the quality of regional foreign investment by the enterprises R&D funding investment and R&D volatility has an indirectly negative impact on the innovation output; and also there is an indirect causality between the regional foreign dependence and the innovation output by the enterprises’ R&D volatility and the regional foreign registered capital. Therefore,the firm should keep the stability of R&D activities, and meanwhile,the local government should not blindly attract an excess of FDI, but should encourage the foreign firm to established the department of R&D in the local,in order to improve the spill of R&D activities.

Low-carbon Product Selection Strategy with Multiple Competitive Firms

NIE Jia-jia, LIN Qing

2016, 25(6):  274-281.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0230

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In the case that consumers are low-carbon preference, we develop a game model consisting of a large enterprise and multiple small enterprises where the large enterprise is a leader and the small enterprises multiple followers. We have established the game model where small enterprises produce common products and large enterprise can choose to produce not only common products, but also low-carbon products. Our study finds that when the small companies are symmetric, greater carbon reduction will lead the large company to produce low-carbon products to obtain higher retail price. In addition, when the large enterprise chooses to produce ordinary products, the small enterprises will have higher sales. Whether the large enterprise chooses to produce low-carbon products or not depends on the number of small enterprises, the acceptance of consumer to the small enterprises’ products, and the carbon emission reduction of low-carbon products. When the small enterprises are asymmetric, with less number of small enterprises, the large enterprise will choose to produce common products. As the number of small enterprises is growing, the large enterprise will choose to produce low carbon products.

The Dynamic Building Research into Complex Product ManufacturingWBS Based on BOM

REN Nan, WANG Yin, XUE Jing

2016, 25(6):  282-287.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0231

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In order to effectively build complex product manufacturing WBS(Work Breakdown Structure), integrating standardized management elements on the managed object and reducing the complexity of the management process for handling, this paper proposes the thinking of building complex product WBS in view of layers’ evolution of complex product manufacturing BOM(Bill of Material), that is, we firstly formalize BOM and WBS, then proceed the transverse information mapping and feedback between the hierarchies of BOM and WBS based on XML(Extensive Makeup Language), to implement the dynamic integration of complex product manufacturing task information, and finally, integrate each layer of WBS based on the maturity define, so as to realize the stratified building of complex product manufacturing WBS.