Abstract: In order to evaluate efficiency of industrial structure evolution in China, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the industrial structure evolution in China. Considering the limitation of the traditional DEA method, the lag period based on the multiple correlation coefficients has been introduced to solve lag problems between the input and output in the evaluation of industrial structure evolution. Thus the modified DEA model is established to assess the efficiency of industrial structure evolution. It is showed that most of the time the efficiency of industrial technology is greater than the scale efficiency, and there is a different degree of redundancy in input elements. In recent years, there has been the trend of alleviation in terms of redundancy degree in the fixed assets investment in primary industry and secondary industry and employed workers, and energy and water consumption was large in secondary industry, while the redundancy level of factors in tertiary industry has deepened. In view of this phenomenon, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.

Key words: industrial economics, evolution efficiency, data envelopment analysis(DEA), lag periods, industrial structure

摘要： 为了评价我国的产业结构演化效率,本文构建了我国产业结构演化评价指标体系。针对传统DEA方法的局限性,文中引入以复相关系数为基准的滞后期,解决了产业结构演化评价中投入和产出之间的滞后性问题,建立更加有效的DEA改进模型,对我国产业结构演化效率进行评价。结论表明,各产业技术效率大部分时间大于规模效率,而且投入要素出现不同程度的冗余情况,近年来,第一、二产业固定资产投资和就业人员冗余程度有减轻的趋势,第二产业能源和水资源消耗较大,同时第三产业各要素冗余程度均有所加深。针对这一现象,本文提出了相关对策建议。

关键词: 产业经济学, 演化效率, 数据包络分析(DEA), 滞后期, 产业结构