Abstract: This paper is based on the data of Chinese provincial housing development investment from 1998 to 2014, and measures the annual spatial aggregation index of housing development investment by using Moran’s I. The results show that China’s housing development investment has the typical characteristics of space aggregation, and these characteristics and extent of spatial aggregation change with the national economic and social situation in different years. To get a better handle on this problems, this paper initials an empirical research to test the affecting factors of spatial aggregation changes in China’s housing development investment by establishing multiple linear regression model, and the results show that the rate of economic growth, industrial upgrading, infrastructure investment, population urbanization has a significant effect on spatial aggregation changes in China's housing development investment.

Key words: housing development investment, spatial distribution, aggregation changes, affecting factors

摘要： 本文基于中国1998~2014年度各省住房开发投资数据,运用Moran’s I指标测度了各年度住房开发投资的空间聚集指数,测度结果表明中国的住房开发投资呈现出典型的空间聚集特征,且在不同的年份随着社会经济发展形势的变化,空间聚集的程度也发生相应的变动。通过建立多元线性回归模型,对影响中国住房开发投资空间聚集变动的因素进行实证研究,结果表明经济增长率、产业升级、基础设施投资、人口城市化对房地产投资空间聚集水平的变化有着显著的影响。

关键词: 住房开发投资, 空间分布, 聚集变动, 影响因素