Abstract: By taking the national major regional planning, Yangtze River Delta, as the empirical research object, this paper selects three policy indicators: the earmarks from the national ministry of finance, the national subsidies income and the national investment in fixed assets, which are highly associated with the policy effectiveness evaluation, by Weighted Grey Relational Degree. The paper establishes Logarithmic Regression Function between policy indexes and planning indexes value-added of the tertiary industry. The predicted value of value-added of the tertiary industry in a specific year is forecasted from the historical data, which is contrasted with the actual value, for evaluating the effectiveness of the policy implementation. The first feature and creativity in this article is deleting the indexes which have small correlation with policy effect evaluation by Grey Relational Degree, in order to screen out the index which have a significant influence on the effectiveness of the major regional planning policy. Second, time weight vector is used to reflect that the grey weight of the nearer year’s index was higher of correlation and it will be more necessary to retain, which guarantees that the nearer the data, the more remarkable of the influence. Third, the effectiveness of the goal is contrasted with the realistic effect to get the policy performance. The goal effect is predicted by historical data without policy planning under natural condition. The realistic effect is measured under the implementation of planning policy at the prediction time. Empirical study shows that Central finance earmarks input, which has significantly influence on Shanghai and Zhejiang province, should be increased and national investment in fixed assets, which has less significance on Shanghai and Zhejiang province, and should be decreased.

Key words: regional planning, policy effectiveness, effect evaluation, key factor

摘要： 以国家重大区域规划中的长三角为实证研究对象,利用加权灰色关联度筛选出与政策效果评价关联性高度相关的政策指标:中央财政专项拨款、中央补助收入、中央固定资产投资额,进而建立政策指标与规划目标的第三产业增加值的对数回归函数,通过过去的数据预测某一特定年份第三产业增加值,并与该年份的实际值进行对比、评价国家重大区域规划的政策效果。本文的特色与创新一是通过灰色关联度剔除与政策效果评价关联度小的指标,筛选出对重大区域规划政策效果有显著影响的关键因素。二是通过时间权向量对政策指标的关联度进行加权,体现时间越近的年份、加权灰色关联度越大,指标越应该保留的思路,保证年份越近的指标数据、对评价结果影响越显著。三是通过历史数据的预测,得到在没有规划政策下、区域自然发展的目标效果,并把其与同一时点、政策实施后的实际效果进行对比,得到政策实施后的政策绩效。实证结果表明应该增大对上海和浙江影响显著的中央财政专项拨款的政策投入,减少对上海和浙江影响不显著的中央固定资产投资额的投入。

关键词: 重大区域规划, 政策效果, 效果评价, 关键因素