Abstract: How to precisely identify the key factors of natural disaster emergency management, which has important practical significance for carrying out scientific emergency management. This paper presents a new and hybrid identifying method of key factors for emergency management. By constructing triangular fuzzy number as the basic language set and triangular -interval fuzzy number as added language set, the method establishes a hybrid direct relation matrix, and which transforms into the interval number direct relation matrix. And then comprehensive sort of prominence and the relation obtained can effectively identify key factors of emergency management. It provides a good methodology support for establishing efficient and science of emergency management policy. At the same time, an example is illustrated and the results show that this method can get good recognition effect. This hybrid identification method breaks through limitations of the single fuzzy evaluation scale research. It has methodological innovation value and has a useful application in the field of identifying the key factors.

Key words: emergency management, hybrid identifying method, key factor, fuzzy DEMATEL, triangular-interval fuzzy number

摘要： 如何细致识别出自然灾害下应急管理的关键因素,对于开展科学有效的应急管理具有重要的现实意义。本文提出一种新的应急管理关键因素的混合型识别方法,该方法通过构建三角模糊数为基本语言集、三角区间模糊数为补充语言集的评价尺度集,建立混合型初始直接关联矩阵并将之转化为区间数直接关联矩阵,进而实现中心度和原因度的综合排序,从而据此有效的识别出应急管理的关键因素,为制订高效科学的应急管理政策提供良好的方法论支持。同时,通过一个算例表明了本方法具有良好的识别效果。本混合型识别方法突破了已有研究单一性模糊评价尺度集的局限性,具有方法论创新价值,并在关键因素识别领域具有较好的应用普适性。

关键词: 应急管理, 混合型识别, 关键因素, DEMATEL, 三角区间模糊