Abstract: As project activities enter into the large scale era, complexity becomes an outstanding problem of the modern project portfolio management. Based on the analysis of the complexity of the project portfolio, an representation method for the project portfolio decision-making system is proposed from the perspective of interactive coupling network. By referring to the nonlinear dynamic model, the complex dynamical network model is constructed for the project portfolio decision-making, and then the stability domain, equilibrium solution, bifurcation and chaos of the model are analyzed and simulated. Researches show that the complexity and stability of the project portfolio decision-making system depend on the interactive relationship, and the realization of the portfolio objective is benefited by improving cooperation, avoiding competition and optimizing allocation based on portfolio entirely.

Key words: project portfolio decision-making, interactive coupling network, complex dynamical network model

摘要： 随着项目活动进入“大尺度”时代,复杂性成为现代化项目组合管理中的突出问题。在项目组合决策系统复杂性分析基础上,提出了交互耦合网络视角下的项目组合决策系统表征方法;借鉴非线性动力学建模方法构建项目组合决策系统复杂动力网络模型,结合模型的稳定解和稳定条件将项目组合决策系统划分为竞争型、共生型、强依存型和弱依存型,并通过数值仿真方法对系统的稳定域、分岔和混沌进行分析。研究表明,项目组合决策系统的复杂性和稳定性依赖于系统内交互关系作用,改善协作关系,避免过分竞争,以系统整体为先优化配置有利于项目组合目标实现。

关键词: 项目组合决策, 交互耦合网络, 复杂动力网络模型