Abstract: With the accelerating pace of China’s urbanization construction, traffic congestion is in constant increase. At the same time, it produces a large amount of NOx every year due to vehicle exhaust emission. Hence, it gives rise to serious air pollution (such as “haze pollution”). To solve the problem, from the perspective of environment and society, this article uses the approach of integrating system dynamics and grey model theory (SD-GM) to construct an urban traffic congestion charging model, through the simulation and decision analysis to seek the feasible strategy for reducing traffic congestion and vehicle exhaust emission. Through the realistic and sensitivity test, we find that the traffic congestion charging fee shouldn’t go beyond 100 yuan/day*vehicle. The main findings are summarized as following: (1)When the traffic congestion charging fee ranges between 25~45, the amount of NO_x, attraction degree of car trips and degree of traffic congestion decrease with the increase of the traffic congestion charging fee, while the per vehicle area of road has a rising trend. (2)But it doesn’t mean that the traffic congestion charging fee is the bigger, the better, for it has an opposite effect when traffic congestion charging fee is higher than 40 yuan/day*vehicle. Finally, compared with base run simulation, we can obtain that the amount of NO_x, amount of car trips, attraction degree of car trips and degree of traffic congestion are reduced by about 33.76%, 39.64%, 43.26%, 82.25%, respectively, and the per vehicle area of road increases by around 65.68%, which verifies the validity and practicability of the model.

Key words: system dynamics, grey system theory, charge mechanism, sensitivity analysis

摘要： 随着中国城市化建设步伐的不断加快,交通拥堵在不断地加剧。同时,因机动车污染物的排放,每年将产生大量的NO_x,从而又会引起严重的大气污染(如“雾霾”污染)。针对这些问题,本文从环境和社会的角度出发,采用系统动力学与灰色系统相结合的方法(SD-GM),构建了城市交通拥堵收费模型,并对模型中主要变量进行动态仿真和决策分析,以此来寻找缓解交通拥堵和减少机动车尾气排放的可行策略。通过现实性测试和敏感性测试,得到拥堵收费的范围不超过100元/天*辆。通过进一步的仿真和结果分析可得到以下结论:(1)在区间[25,40] 内,随着拥堵收费的提高,NO_x存量,机动车出行吸引度和交通拥堵程度都呈下降趋势,而车均道路面积呈上升趋势。(2)但并非拥堵收费越高越好, 超过40 元/天*辆,会产生相反的效果。最后,通过比较分析,得到NO_x存量,机动车出行量,机动车出行吸引度和交通拥堵程度分别下降了约33.76%,39.64%,43.26%,82.25%,而车均道路面积提高了大约65.68%,进而验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

关键词: 系统动力学, 灰色系统理论, 收费机制, 灵敏性分析