Abstract: Postponement strategy is an important strategic means to coordinate contradiction between the absolute of market demand changes and relative stability of manufacturing system. The paper applies the generalized stochastic Petri nets(GSPN)to model manufacturing system of implementing postponement strategy, and analyzes its performance. The GSPN is converted to Markov chain because the GSPN is isomorphic with Markov chain. With Markov chain and corresponding mathematics methods, we get the main indexes performance. The method can not only analyze the whole manufacturing system of implementing postponement strategy performance but also analyze the performance of every process. Finally, the effectiveness of this method is proved by an empirical analysis. The evaluation method enriches the postponement strategy.

Key words: postponement strategy, manufacturing system, generalized stochastic petri-Net, markov chain

摘要： 延迟策略是协调市场需求变化的绝对性和生产系统相对稳定性矛盾的一个重要战略手段。为分析实施延迟策略生产系统的性能,利用随机广义Petri-net(GSPN)的建模分析方法,并根据GSPN与马尔科夫链的同构关系,将GSPN模型转化成为等价的马尔科夫链模型。通过马尔科夫链及相关数学方法获得实施延迟策略生产系统的主要性能指标。该方法不仅可以分析实施延迟策略生产系统的整体性能,而且能够对系统的各个环节运作效率做出定量分析。最后,通过算例分析验证了该方法的科学性与有效性,丰富了延迟策略研究方面的方法理论。

关键词: 延迟策略, 生产系统, 随机广义Petri-net, 马尔科夫链