Table of Content

25 December 2015, Volume 24 Issue 6

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Intelligent Water Drops Algorithm for Vehicle Routing Problem with Multiple Time Windows

LI Zhen-ping, ZHAO Fei, LIU Hong-wei

2015, 24(6):  1-10.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.189

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The vehicle routing problem with multiple time windows is investigated in this paper. The constraints of vehicle’s capacity and the multiple hard time windows are considered. An integer linear programming model of VRPMTW is proposed, and the objective function is to minimize the total costs including the fixed costs of vehicles and the transportation costs of vehicles. Based on the principles of the intelligent water drops, an Intelligent Water Drops(IDW)algorithm for solving the VRPMTW is designed. We further do simulation on an example, and compare the results obtained by IDW algorithm and GA(genetic algorithm)algorithm. The results show that we can find the global optimal solution of VRPMTW with higher probability using Intelligent Water Drops algorithm than Genetic Algorithm. IDW algorithm is an efficient algorithm for solving VRPMTW.


A New Allocation Rule for Sequencing Games Coalition of Sequencing Games

ZHOU Yi-yuan, ZHANG Qiang

2015, 24(6):  11-15.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0190

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One-machine sequencing situations and corresponding sequencing games are considered, the main aim is an allocation rule. The expression of the cost increment is presented. A new allocation rule is introduced, the payoff based on the rule is greater than or equal to the cost increment and belongs to the core of corresponding sequencing game. For a special class of sequencing situation, a solution is designed to compensate players for their losses firstly and allocate the remaining worth among the players secondly, it is proved that this solution satisfies the new rule and has the property of efficiency, dummy property and monotonicity. Meanwhile, a numerical example is studied.

ELECTRE-Based Measure for Multi-Attribute Decision Making Using Interval-Valued Hesitant Fuzzy Set

YU Qian, HOU Fu-jun, ZHAI Yu-bing, DU Yu-qin

2015, 24(6):  16-24.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0191

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For the past decades, the multi-attribute decision making problem has always been the focus of many scholars. However, there is a still blank in using the ELECTRE(Elimination Et Choice Translating Reality)method to solve multi-attribute decision making(MADM)problems with interval-valued hesitant fuzzy information. By combining the expression advantage of interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets and the idea of the ELECTRE method, an interval-valued hesitant fuzzy ELECTRE(IVHF ELECTRE)method is proposed. Firstly, the interval-valued hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is constructed, and the concordance set and discordance set are defined by introducing the concept of score function and possibility. Then comprehensive judgment matrix is calculated by setting the threshold value to obtain the preference ranking of the alternatives. In order to further get overall sort of the alternatives, the TOPSIS method is introduced. And the comprehensive preference matrix is constructed by calculating the distance between each alternative and the ideal point to obtain the complete ranking of the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.

Decision Analysis of Generating Companies with Stochastic Demands under C&T Environment

XIONG Yi, CHEN Zhi-min, HUO Jia-zhen, PAN Yan-chun, ZHOU Ming

2015, 24(6):  25-33.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0192

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Cap-and-trade(C&T)brings new challenges to the operational decisions of generating companies. A nonlinear optimization model is proposed in this paper to analyze the optimal production quantity under C&T environment, and balance between green improvement and carbon trade. Our model captures the marginal decreasing effect and risk of green improvement as well as the stochastic demands and carbon price. The optimal solution and its existence condition for generating companies are given via theoretical analysis. Our researchresults can be summarized as follows. Compared with traditional environment without C&T, the new optimal production quantity and the actual emission under C&T environment are much lower. Emission allowance has an important impact on expected profit and carbon trade, while it has nothing to do with the optimal production quantity and optimal investment of green improvement. The larger the carbon price and green improvement coefficient are, the more the generating companies invest on green improvement to reduce carbon emission. The expected profit increases with the increase of green improvement coefficient and emission allowance, while it decreases with the increase of emission per unit product. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical model and its analytical results. Monte Carlo simulation reveals that demand risk, green improvement risk and carbon price fluctuation have an important impact on expected profit, while demand risk has a more significant impact on the fluctuation of profit.

Interval-valued Cooperative Games Based on Risk Preferences and Satisfaction

ZOU Zheng-xing, LI Deng-feng, HE Yun

2015, 24(6):  34-43.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0192

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The study of interval Shapley value is usually based on superadditive interval-valued cooperation games or convex interval-valued cooperative games, limiting the scope of the application of the interval Shapley value. Based on acceptability index——the fuzzy preference ordering for interval and the intensities of risk preferences for players, we discuss the concept of the players with degrees of satisfaction. In this paper, we find that the degree of satisfaction plays a key role of analyzing the interval-valued cooperative games. By calculating the degrees of satisfaction with the allocation for interval-valued cooperative games, we find it obvious to determine whether the allocation, including the interval Shapley value, is reasonable. And we can judge whether the coalitions of players who coordinate their actions is stable by using the degrees of satisfaction. The basis of this method is an extension of the application of the interval Shapley value. Furthermore, we get some useful properties when the interval-valued cooperative game is at particular situations.

Optimization of Reactive Multi-mode Project Scheduling Based on Stochastic Breakdown of Resources

LI Jia-yuan, HE Zheng-wen

2015, 24(6):  44-50.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0194

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Resource breakdown occurs frequently during the implementation of projects. It may lead to the changes of project schedule and generate additional expenses. This paper involves the project scheduling problem under resource breakdown, where the objective is to adjust the baseline schedule reasonably so as to minimize the incurred additional expenses. The problem is identified at first and the optimization model is constructed accordingly. For the NP-hardness of the problem, a tabu search heuristic algorithm is developed. Finally, given the baseline list algorithm and the random generation algorithm as comparison, we test the tabu search algorithm on a set of standard instances generated randomly. The conclusions are drawn as follows. First, within the acceptable computation time, the quality of the desirable solutions obtained by the tabu search heuristic algorithm is significantly better than those obtained by other two heuristic algorithms. Second, the average computation time increases with the activity number, but decreases with the network complexity, the renewable resource strength, and the number of resource breakdown, respectively. Third, the mean of objective function value also climbs with the activity number and drops with the network complexity and the number of resource breakdown, but it seems that there is no significance influence on the renewable resource strength.

Loss Aversion Portfolio Optimal Model with Dynamic Reference Point

WANG Jia, JIN Xiu, YUAN Ying, WANG Xu

2015, 24(6):  51-57.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0195

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Under continuous time, considering dynamic updating character of reference point of loss aversion investors, we construct loss aversion portfolio model with dynamic reference point. Then, using martingale method, we derive the analytical expression of optimal risky asset weight, based on which we obtain the expected optimal terminal wealth of loss aversion investors whose reference point is dynamically adjusted. Furthermore, using numerical cases, we analyze the effects of dynamic adjustment amplitude of reference point and loss aversion degree of investors on model from the aspects of optimal risky asset weight and expected optimal terminal wealth.

Uncertain Programming Model for Supermarket Logistics Distribution with Time Windows

WU Pan-feng, LIU Hui-qing, PENG Jin

2015, 24(6):  58-64.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0196

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This paper deals with the supermarket logistics distribution problem with time windows in an uncertain environment. The daily demands of supermarkets and travel times of vehicles are treated as uncertain variables. In order to minimize the total travel time of all the vehicles, an uncertain chance constrained programming model is constructed. Then the proposed model is converted into a crisp equivalent model by operational law of uncertain variable. Moreover, an algorithm for solving the model is designed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the modeling idea.

Optimal Inventory Policy for Perishable Items with Service-level-dependent Demand Rate

DUAN Yong-rui, FU Qiong-chao, LI Gui-ping

2015, 24(6):  65-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0197

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This paper deals with two period inventory optimization problem for perishable items where the demand rate depends on the service-level of the previous replenishment cycle. Two scenarios are considered, namely, (1)the buyer order once and (2)the buyer order several times in the selling period. Two inventory models are proposed respectively by maximizing the average profit. In addition, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the optimal inventory service-level and ordering quantity. Finally, an example is presented and the sensitivity analyses on the parameters are conducted to illustrate the validity and the effectiveness of the proposed models. The results show that, in the first case, when the unit inventory holding cost or deteriorating rate increases, the average profit of the system will decrease. As the deteriorating rate increases, the ordering quantity will also increase. In the second case, when the unit inventory holding cost, the expected service-level of customers or the loss rate of order during the shortage increases, the inventory service-level and the average profit of the system will decrease. Only when the inventory holding cost is extremely small, is order once more profitable, so the buyer will usually choose to order several times to enhance the profit. The results also indicate that, service-level is an important factor that influence the inventory policy, and the enterprise should balance the service-level and profits.

Inventory and Price Stackelberg Equilibrium Policies of Non-instantaneous Deteriorating Items Supply Chain with Trade Credit

DONG Kun-xiang, HOU Wen-hua, CHEN Zong-ze, DING Hui-ping

2015, 24(6):  76-85.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0198

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Based on the inventory model of non-instantaneous deteriorating items, two kinds of inventory models(supplier as the leader-SL & retailer as the leader-RL), by considering shortage and cash time cost, based on Stackelberg game for non-instantaneous deteriorating items under trade credit are developed. The equilibrium solutions of the two models are obtained by analyzing the Stackelberg game model. Finally, our results of the numerical examples show: (1)Trade credit is not always an appropriate way to coordinate the whole supply chain in SL, while it is much better for the supply chain with the RL; (2)And prolonging the trade credit or improving sales price can increase the order quantity; (3)The sales price is increasing with deterioration time, and the whole chain gets the Pareto improvement in both SL and RL models; (4)Comparing supplier changes the trade credit period in SL with changing the sale price in RL, the profit of SL is much higher when changing the trade credit period in SL; however, when the trade credit period and price are fixed, the profit of RL is much higher.

Bullwhip Effect of Double Sources Electricity Supply Chain for Large-scale Wind Power Integration on Power System

HOU Lin-na, SUN Jing-chun, WANG Hai-yan

2015, 24(6):  86-94.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0199

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In addition to characteristics of partial monopoly for current electricity supply chain in China, its structure changes from single source to double sources due to large-scale wind power integration on power system, resulting in random supply and random demand. These changes affect the accurate transmission of electricity demand information and induce bullwhip effect, but these problems have rarely studied. Based on the characteristics of China’s electricity supply chain, we build a multi-level supply chain model including coal companies, power plants (thermal plant and wind power plant) and users, discuss changes of bullwhip effect in single and double sources electricity supply chain. The results show that bullwhip effect in double sources electricity supply chain is larger and more unstable, especially when the electricity need is relatively steady, there will be coexistence of bullwhip effect and anti-bullwhip effect. Through discussion of the bullwhip effect, we can deeply understand the changes and impacts of China’s current electricity supply chain and realize that reasonable forecasting model and rational planning of wind farms will be helpful to restrain bullwhip effect.

Dual-Channel Supply Chain Coordination under the Same Retail Price When Multi-factor Disruptions Occur

WU Xiao-zhi, CHEN Hong, XIE Dong-chuan, WU Zhong-he

2015, 24(6):  95-102.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0200

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This study analyzes a dual-channel supply chain including a traditional retailer and a manufacturer with an electronic channel, in which the manufacturer adopts the same price strategy both online and offline by following with the traditional retailer. Establishing a market demand model, we obtain the optimal price and sales quantity, and then we design a revenue-sharing contract based on game theory and contract theory. The result shows that the coordination of the dual-channel supply chain with the same retail price strategy can be achieved under the revenue-sharing contract. When unexpected events result in demand and production cost disruptions, there is certain robustness in the operation of the dual channel supply chain. The coordination of the decentralized dual-channel supply chain with the same retail price strategy can also be achieved under the revenue-sharing contract. Finally, a numerical example is given to clarify our conclusions.

Revenue Sharing Contract of Supply Chain for Fresh Agricultural Products Considering Fairness Concerns

SUN Yu-ling, HONG Mei-na, SHI Kui-ran

2015, 24(6):  103-111.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0201

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The paper studies supply chain coordination of fresh agricultural products when supply chain players consider fairness under revenue sharing contract, respectively. Considering the characteristics of fresh agricultural products and behavior of fairness preference, the paper presents a two-echelon supply chain model of fresh agriculture products, then investigates supply chain coordination mechanism when only the retailer or the supplier considers fairness and both of them consider fairness. The results reveal that revenue sharing contract can coordinate supply chain of fresh products as long as wholesale price satisfy certain condition, and fairness concerns can affect supply chain players’ utility. Finally, numerical examples illustrate the results.

Research on Pricing and Coordination Policies Based on Product Life-Cycle in Closed-Loop Supply Chain

LU Rong-hua, LI Nan

2015, 24(6):  112-120.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0202

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This study deals with the pricing and coordination policies based on product life-cycle in closed-supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer, where the manufacturer makes and supplies all-new products in the first period and uses returned cores to offer remanufactured products, along with the new ones, in the subsequence periods until the end of product life-cycle. We build a decentralized model in two-period, multi-period and infinite planning horizons and a centralized model in multi-period and characterize the optimal pricing and manufacturing strategy for the manufacturer and the retailer. The result suggests that in the two-period setting the manufacturer and the retailer should make different wholesale price, sales price and production quantity according to different cost savings, and in the multi-period setting the manufacturer and the retailer should adopt the same pricing and manufacturing strategies except the first and the last period with the low cost savings and adopt the same pricing and manufacturing strategies except the first period and the last two periods with the high cost savings, and in the infinite-horizon setting the manufacturer and the retailer should make the same pricing and manufacturing strategies except the first period. The manufacturer and the retailer should make lower price in the earlier periods to provide cores that are essential for the low cost production in the later periods. The whole closed-loop supply chain can be coordinated with revenue sharing contract. A numerical example is given to prove the conclusions above.

Lagrangian Relaxation Using Interleaved Subgradient Method and Its Application for Multi-stage HFSP

XUAN Hua, LI Bing

2015, 24(6):  121-127.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0203

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In order to reduce solution complexity and computation time, an improved Lagrangian relaxation algorithm combined with an interleaved subgradient method is presented to solve total weighted completion time problem of multi-stage hybrid flowshop. An integer programming model is firstly formulated for HFSP considering finite waiting time and job release time. An interleaved subgradient method is then introduced into Lagrangian relaxation which requires approximately solving Lagrangian relaxation problem to obtain a reasonable interleaved subgradient direction. The distance to optimal solutions can be decreased step by step along this searching direction. Computation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented algorithm. Compared with regular Lagrangian relaxation based on subgradient optimization, the testing results show that the developed method can get better schedule results with less time in aspect of solution quality and computation efficiency, especially for large-sized problems.

Structure and Solution of a Fuzzy-QFD Iinear Programming Model for Objective Optimal Allocation in Service Management

CHEN Zhi-ran, YU Li-ying

2015, 24(6):  128-135.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0204

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The exiting methods are difficult to solve improvement problems of service quality under subjective linguistic evaluation effectively, because of the complexity and fuzziness of service management. In this study, we expand the application of quality function deployment(QFD)to structure a fuzzy linear programming model, to solve the problem of optimized allocation of limited company capabilities for satisfying customer requirement to the maximum. Firstly, the paper identifies model parameters of customer requirement, requirement weight and requirement bounded constraints on the basis of fuzzy evaluation of comparison of customer perception and expectation. Secondly, fuzzy linear regression and membership function of the asymmetric triangular fuzzy number are used to transform fuzzy linear programming problem with fuzzy variables into a classical linear programming problem in order to obtain the model solutions under different fuzzy conditions. Finally, an example of online shopping is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Application Research

Dynamic Coordination Mechanism of Information System Security Investment Based on Interdependent Security

GU Jian-qiang, MEI Shu-e, ZHONG Wei-jun

2015, 24(6):  136-142.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0205

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Optimizing continuous time information system security investment decisions of firms in the case of interdependent security is worthing studying. First, we employ the methodology of differential games to investigate two firms’ optimal investment strategies in the Nash non-cooperative game. In this general non-cooperative information system security investment game situation,the influence on the equilibrium vulnerability (security investment rate)is studied when three important elements(investment efficiency parameter,hackers’ learning effect, pidemic risk)are changed .Then the optimal action selection of two partners in the cooperative game situation is analyzed. After comparing these two game equilibrium results,it is found that symmetric firms maintain a higher rate of security investment under cooperative situation. The application of executing a bilateral compensation scheme is one of the measures to achieve the equilibrium which under coordination.

Study on Model of Design Risk Element Transmission in the Construction Project

LI Cun-bin, LIU Yun-qi, LI Shu-ke

2015, 24(6):  143-151.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0206

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Design risk is one of the main reasons for leading to rework in the process of the construction. In this paper, based on the generic project risk element transmission theory and system dynamics, a system dynamics model of construction project design risk element transmission is developed. The factors leading to the quantity increase of construction projects are considered as design risk element, and after the analysis of transfer process of design risk element in construction project, a corresponding causal feedback loop is constructed. By assigning values to model variables and establishing functions between them, the model is simulated through software Vensim. The results indicate that design risk element exerts different degree of influence on project cost and time, and that the more design risk element occurs or the later design risk element occurs, the faster will the impact accelerate through the internal structure of project. In addition, it can be concluded that the model results chart, which reflects the dynamic changes of individual construction project, can provide sound evidence for risk management and project management.

Empirical Study on the Purchase Intention Achievement Between Customer and Service Provider Based on Planned Behavior Theory

WANG Xiao-juan, WAN Ying-hong, HU Wan-ping

2015, 24(6):  152-159.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0207

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The research on the relationships and influences of the purchase intention achievement between customers and service providers based on the theory of planned behavior. Through analysis the influence of psychological reaction of customers as well as “responsibility or obligation” commitment of merchantsto purchase intention, proposed the model and assumes on the purchase intention achievement between customer and merchants.Taken the method of situational experiment and the way of process tracking to verify the model and hypotheses, which was inthe background of serve relationship.The results show thatcustomer perceived behavior control, customer values / attitudes, subjective norms, knowledge and experience, merchant commitments and transfer showed different effects on the customer purchase intention.The conclusion have certain reference for service providers to reach purchase intentions and behavior with customer,and lay the foundation for the service provider and customer to establish long-term stable relationships.

Mechanisation and Simulation of the Evolution of Innovation Network’s Cooperation Behavior Driven by the Profit ——Based on the Perspective of Network Topologies

CAO Xia, ZHANG Lu-peng

2015, 24(6):  160-169.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0208

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With the network development of cooperation innovation, the profit demand of every subject in the innovation network has exerted a more and more significant impact on the network evolution. Based on the influence of various profit distributions upon subjects’ cooperation behaviors in the innovation network under different network topologies, the game model of network evolution is established. Combined with many factors such as reputation mechanism, learning behavior and network environment, it carries through a simulation research on the evolution of innovation network’s cooperation behavior in scale-free networks and small-world networks. The research results are as follows. First, the evolution of innovation network’s cooperation behavior is subject to the dual influences of network structures and its scales. Cooperation expressions are the most stable under the scale-free networks. Second, the distribution of cooperation benefits produces an effect on the evolution of innovation network’s cooperation behavior. At last, temptation of opportunity benefits brings about the fluctuation of innovation network’s cooperation behavior.

Grey Relation Evaluation Model of Product Design Program Based on Rough Number and Information Entropy

GUO Xiao-jun, LIU Si-feng, FANG Zhi-geng

2015, 24(6):  170-175.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0209

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Due to the incompleteness and uncertainty of index attributes in the scheme design of complex products, a grey relation evaluation model based on rough number and information entropy is proposed in this paper. First, the rough number’s evaluation matrix can be normalized by adopting the norm of the rough number sequence, and the index attribute value can be weight assembled by means of entropy weight. Then, after the building of ideal optimum feature sequence, the optimum evaluation scheme can be obtained in the whole system by virtue of rough similarity relevancy based on the information reduction operator. Information entropy weight can reduce the impact of man-made factors due to subjective weight, and information reduction operator can avoid the information distortion in the course of evaluation. Finally, an example of construction machinery products is adopted to validate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model. Morevoer, this model can be used to evaluate and choose scheme designs of complex products.

Electrical Energy Alternative Research Based on the Cost Utility Analysis

YAN Qing-you, ZHU Ming-liang, TANG Xin-fa

2015, 24(6):  176-183.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0210

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In recent years,haze makes people more and more realize the importance of environmental protection, and based on the situation of China’s“rich in coal,less gas and lean oil”, State Grid Corporation of China puts forward the power energy alternatives plan to replace coal by electricity. This paper take the calorific value that can be obtained in the process of electricity and coal use as the utility, annual cost in the process of use as the cost, establishs the cost utility model of electrical energy alternative,to caculate the balanced Pollution discharge fee which can achieve and Empirical analysis is carried out through an example.Analysis results show that: the price per unit of power, unit power emissions, coal-fired equipment life has a positive impact on the critical value of pollution discharge fee; coal prices, unit coal-fired emissions, power equipment life have the negative influence on the Critical value of pollution discharge fee. Finally, based on the analysis, give some suggestions about alternative energy policy.

Research on the Space Clustering Features of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations’ Economy Based on GIS

ZHANG Hong, YU Bo, JU Li-xin

2015, 24(6):  184-191.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0211

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This paper defines the spatial scale of the yangtze river delta urban agglomerations, and then uses the space clustering analysis application of GIS to analyze its economic space, based on the related data of cities in 2013, respectively from the global clustering test and the local clustering test. The study shows that there are significant features of spatial cluster for economic output and production factors from the global perspective. And from the local perspective, GDP and per capita GDP high-high cluster in Shanghai, Suzhou and other cities. Meanwhile labor,capital,technology,energy and other economic production factors high-high cluster in Shanghai, Suzhou and other cities too.

Angle Grey T’s Relational Degree and Its Application

XU Guo-dong, GUO Peng, LI Xue-mei, JIA Ying-ying

2015, 24(6):  192-198.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0212

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel model called Angle Grey T’s Relational Degree based on the current grey relational model and algorithm, this model can enrich the theory of Grey Relational Analysis, and it can also be used to make predictions, make classifications and make decisions and so on. Employed the method of Piecewise Linear Representation (PLR), a time series can be approximately expressed as the form of angle series between adjacent line segments, and then the calculation methods of grey relational coefficient and degree are presented based on other studies in this paper. Angle Grey T’s Relational Degree model not only can show the correlation of positive or negative of different time series, but it has some characteristics including symmetry, uniqueness and comparability and so on. Finally, the validity of this novel model was to be proved through a case study.

A Modified Cross Nested Logit Route Choice Model Based on Network Hierarchy and VMS Information

ZENG Ming-hua, YUN Mei-ping, YANG Xiao-guang

2015, 24(6):  199-204.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0213

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Network traffic assignment and cross-nested Logit(CNL)model are investigated based on road hierarchy and VMS information. Supposing some main roads are installed with VMS equipment, the impact coefficients on traffic flow by VMS and the allocation coefficients in CNL model are calculated with road grade and a new attenuation factor of information utility that is formulated by integrating power and exponential ones. For hierarchical road network, CNL route choice model and its equivalent mathematical programming are established under the stochastic user equilibrium, and then a network flow allocation algorithm is proposed. The model and algorithm presented are examined with an example network. Calculations and analyses lead to some meaningful conclusions. The more significant hierarchical structure of road network, the lower the total travel time and the greater the absolute value of its elasticity on the diffusion parameter(θ). The enhancement of determinacy of the real road network that has relatively strong randomness will save more travel time. The road network installed with VMS is more slightly affected by dispersion parameter when the performance is measured by total travel time.

Credit Funds Information Sharing Model Between Bank and Corporate Based on Signaling Game Theory for Market Interest Rate Environment

LIU Hong-sheng , LI Bang-yi

2015, 24(6):  205-210.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0214

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This study theoretically proves that based on Market interest rate environment for banks to take an Interest subsidy commitment approach to design a risk-sharing profit sharing contract mechanism, profit sharing parameters play a role in transmitting information signals. The results show that companies do not have motive to lie in the contract, and the contract parameters are to convey the information signal. It can not only achieve the information sharing of supply and demand of credit funds under the contractual mechanisms, but also ensure the coordination of the system, so that the system can achieve optimal: companies can get funds for new products, and banks can solve the problem of credit risk of capital loss prevention.

Market Equilibrium Analysis Based on Investor Sentiment

XIE Jun, GAO Bin

2015, 24(6):  211-216.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0215

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Under the analysis framework of behavioral finance, emotional investor and rational investor are taken intoaccount. This paper presents the asset pricing model of market equilibrium based on investor sentiment, and gives a numerical simulation. The results show that investor sentiment is the key factor which affects the asset pricing. The asset which is overestimated by emotional investor has the low return, and the asset which is underestimated by emotional investor has the hight return. The increasing level or the decreasing level of return has the positive correlation with the proportion of the asset which is underestimated and sold by emotional investor, and has the negetive correlation with the expected money payoff. Finanly, the asymmetrical effect of optimism and pessimism is showed by our model. We give an effective explanation of why some people may earn nothing in the bull market, and we also give an effective explanation of why the stock price falls rapidly but rises slowly.

Research on Financial Risk Analysis Model of Small and Micro Businesses Based on Improved Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

LI Jing-ming, RUAN Su-mei, LIU Kui-hu

2015, 24(6):  217-224.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0216

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According to the specific enviroment and actual situation of small and micro business, credit evaluation index system of small and micro business is constructed. Comparative analyzing the domestic and foreign credit evaluation method, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on informtion entropy and AHP is proposed. The objective weight is based on the entropy weight, and the subjective weight is computed by use of the AHP. Then the objective and subjective weight are united, and consequently the comprehensive weights are obtained by weight fitting. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation result is got, which realized the analysis of financial risk of small and micro business. The experimental results which are calculated by the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on strong operability are more scientific and accurate.

Dynamic Nonmyopic Asset Liability Management

ZHANG Ling, ZHANG Wei-wei, ZHENG Jun

2015, 24(6):  225-232.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0217

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This paper investigates a continuous-time asset liability management problem by assuming that the stock returns are predictable which breaks the impasse that the returns of stock are independent identical distribution. The appreciation rate of the stock price is modulated by a mean-reverting process. And the dynamics of liability is described by a Brownian motion with drift. Utilizing the dynamic programming approach, this paper solves, in closed form, the optimal asset liability management strategy for an investor under expected utility over the terminal surplus. The result shows that the optimal asset liability management strategy is a linear function of risk premium and the amount invested in the risky stock decreases with the investment time horizon. The numerical analysis shows that the investment time horizon, risk premium and liability have significant impact on the optimal asset liability management strategy and the demand for hedging the uncertainty of the risk premium.

Research on Bank’s Decision of Inventory Financing Considering Inventory Deterioration

PAN Yong-ming, NI Feng

2015, 24(6):  233-241.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0218

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To study the impact of inventory deterioration on the decision-making parties under stochastic demand, an inventory financing system composed of a single bank, a small and medium enterprise and a third-party logistics enterprise(TPL)is established. In considering the downside risk constraint of the bank and repayment capacity of enterprise, a model is constructed with the target of bank’s profit maximization. The effects on loan-to-value ratio and profit of bank, initial deterioration rate, incentive coefficient, deterioration reducing coefficient and market demand, are analyzed through rich mathematical methods. The research conclusions are as follows. (1)Bank’s profit is negatively correlated with inventory deterioration rate. Bank will have an incentive to drive TPL to improve service levels and reduce the deterioration rate.(2)It is good for the bank to improue the loan-to-value ratio and enrich the selection of pledges that the bank motivates TPL to reduce deterioration rate. (3)Only when the initial deterioration rate exceeds a certain limit, will the additional revenue be higher than incentive costs brought by bank’s incentive behavior. Finally, the numerical study demonstrates the above conclusions. It provides insight for the bank’s inventory financing decision.

Management Science

Study on Knowledge Sharing Incentive within Project Team Based on Horizontal Fairness Preference

SHI Jian-gang, LIN Ling-na, TANG Dai-zhong

2015, 24(6):  242-250.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0219

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Most actual researches on knowledge sharing incentive are based on the rational economic people assumption. However, such an assumption has its limitation on real economic activities. This paper integrates individual incentive and workgroup incentive that used to be separate. The use of game model and the consideration of horizontal fairness preferences are constructed to analyze the knowledge sharing incentive model within project team. Through the model testing and data simulation, conclusions are as follow: under the equilibrium state of individual incentive and workgroup incentive, the individual incentive and workgroup incentive are complementary. In low(high)cost of knowledge sharing risk, individual incentive and horizontal fairness preference are negative correlation(an inverted U-shaped); workgroup incentive and horizontal fairness preference are positive correlation(U-shaped).

Top Managers of the State-owned Enterprise Human Capital Advantage Degree Evaluation andAnalysis Method and Its Application

ZHANG Li -li

2015, 24(6):  251-260.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0220

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In view of seniority and professional title for describing human capital with the effect of name original tendency, according to scientific talent ideology, state-owned enterprises top manager quality human capital indicator system is constructed with seven quality indicators. In order to identify quality ability and its advantages and disadvantages, human capital advantage degree group evaluation and analysis method is put forward, which has the advantage of tolerance optimization, people oriented, quantitative identifying each indicator advantage degree and multi-comprehensive human capital level function. The results of empirical study with the method show that state-owned enterprises top manager quality human capital comprehensive advantage degree is good, and the result of single indicator is mentality morality concept and idea competency politics knowledge. The management countermeasures are put forward from the perspective of perfection for selection and appointment mechanism, differentiated management, perfect growth environment and moderately political orientation.

Research on the Monopolistic Firm’s Optimal Pricing, Carbon Emission Strategies and Governmental Pptimal Carbon Taxation in the Context of CDM Mechanism

MA Qiu-zhuo, SONG Hai-qing

2015, 24(6):  261-271.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0221

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A single-period Stackelberg game between a monopolistic manufacturer that is going to implement the CDM project and the government is considered. In order to control the carbon emission, the government as the leader has to decide the carbon tax rate. Accordingly, the company as the follower needs to optimally determine the total emission quantity during the project cycle. Before that, the company with the profit maximization objective needs to decide the price of its low-carbon product when facing different customer’s low-carbon preferences. Then, based on different scenarios of the taxation level, the company decides the emission over the project cycle. The analysis shows that, the pricing level is affected by the tax rate as well as the low-carbon preference. For the emission, according to different tax levels, there exist the lowest, highest margin solutions and the stable point solution. The analysis is theoretically addressed on behalf of the optimal solutions against different taxation levels, and some decision-making suggestions are presented by the numerical study.

Four-attributes Measurement Method of Cloud Service Composition Flexibility

XU Xuan-guo, ZHANG Kai, SU Xiang, LIU Kai

2015, 24(6):  272-280.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0222

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In the process of resource service composition in the cloud manufacturing environment, inevitably there are many uncertain factors from internal and external environments influencing the dynamics of cloud service composition, which directly affect its operating cost, efficiency and quality. To effectively improve the flexibility of cloud service composition, this article needs to measure the flexibility. Based on the assumption that each resource service in the candidate cloud services set can substitute others to complete tasks with different efficiency in case of disturbance occurring, we propose a measurement method of cloud service composition flexibility. The method takes into account four attributes, including the efficient flexibility, redundancy flexibility, path flexibility and task flexibility. Finally, this cloud service composition flexibility measurement method is verified with an example to illustrate its application process.

Design of Tour Guide’s Dynamic Salary Contract Based on Multi-task Principal-agent Model

HUANG Yan, LUO Ding-ti, LU Fang, ZHU Xin-chun

2015, 24(6):  281-288.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0223

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In tourism service supply chain, service quality is the important determinant of tourism sustainability, so a difficult question is how the travel agency can design an incentive salary contract to make tour guides improve service quality effectively and efficiently. Considering the vertical multi-task specialty of guides and starting from the Multi-task Agent Model originated by Holmstrom, this paper divides guide’s effort into two dimensions: the profit-making action which pursues individual performance and the strategic service action which is in pursuit of service quality to promote travel agency’s reputation. Based on it, this study constructs guide’s multi-cycle dynamic salary contract model, and compares with the single-period static contract model without considering the service quality. Finally, the numerical simulation results are given. The model shows that the pare-to-efficiency of multi-cycle dynamic salary contract for travel agencies and tour guides is better than traditional contract, and in the long run, it is obvious to raise the travel agency reputation and improve the tourist satisfaction.