Table of Content

25 November 2017, Volume 26 Issue 11

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Research on the Effect Factors of Participation Behavior to the Crowdsourcing Logistics Based on the UTAUT

GUO Jie, WANG Jia-wei

2017, 26(11):  1-6.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0253

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Crowdsourcing logistics as a new terminal logistics distribution mode, provides a new perspective for solving the local logistics bottleneck in E-commerce effectively. Based on Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology(UTAUT)the crowdsourcing logistics public participation behavior effect factors model is provided in this paper, and then through analyzing the 296 effective questionnaire samples by structural equation model(SEM) , the results Indicate that influence effect factors are in descending order: convenience condition, public participation will benefit expectation, social influence and perceived risk. Finally, the development suggestions of crowdsourcing logistics are concluded.

Design of Incentive Contract on the Agent Emergency Supplies Reservation System under Government Consigning

GAO Xiao-ning, TIAN Jun, FENG Geng-zhong

2017, 26(11):  7-14.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0254

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The agent emergency supplies reservation under government consigning is a common strategy of emergency supplies management, and the enterprise’s effort plays an vital role in materials supply, but because the goals they pursue between government and enterprise are inconsistent, and the transparency of information is constrained by some objective conditions, enterprises are more likely to develop weariness emotion because of a long period of time in peace, or may pay less for pursuing economic benefit, so the total effort will decline, which brings potential risk to material supply in emergency. Hence, the article builds a game theory model between the enterprise and government by using supply chain contract theory, which analyzes the influence of the incentive method and incentive subsidy on the enterprise’s efforts and searches for the optimal parameter settings through numerical stimulation. Then the paper designs an incentive contract on agent emergency supplies reservation system by making the corresponding rewards and punishment rule. Above all, the incentive contract has a great effect on the government in managing the enterprise efficiently. It also can stimulate the enterprise to improve its efforts, and what’s more, the paper offers?theoretical support for promoting the emergency supplies capacity under the condition of emergencies.

Optimal Targeted Seeding Strategy for a New Product Based on Online Ratings

CUI Fang, CUI Wen-tian, LIN Jun, CAO Huan-huan

2017, 26(11):  15-25.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0255

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Potential customers may underrate the real value of a new product. However, the expected value can be affected by the other customers’ ratings and the online ratings are the most convenient information which customers can achieve, especially for the online products. So the enterprises want to gain a considerable amount of online reviews in a short time to increase the expected value of a new product. Seeding—giving away free new products—has been a very popular program to enhance the expected value. Choosing a proper type of consumers can help enhance the quality of the ratings. However, seeding programs not only decrease the demand especially for the one-purchase product but also increase cost. So the optimal seeding strategies need to be studied.
Based on the hoteling model and the effect of online ratings, this paper explores three seeding patterns(no seeding, union seeding and seeding the highly-matched customers) and conducts the optimal seeding strategy, including the optimal seeding size—the percentage of the market to seed—and pricing strategy to maximizing profit. The results help enterprises choose the optimal seeding pattern and the corresponding seeding strategies (seeding size and pricing strategies), and then give the adjustment seeding strategies when the initial expected value of a new product or the travel cost is changed. The results show that when the expectation of the potential customers is high, seeding is not the best choice; when the initial expected value of a new product is at upper middle level, the enterprise can choose union seeding; when the initial expected value of a new product is low, seed the highly-matched customers. When the initial expected value of a new product or the travel cost is changed, the adjusted seeding strategies are showed in the end of the paper. Meanwhile, according to the adjusted seeding strategies, we find that improving initial expected value of a new product and unit travel cost both contribute the enterprises’ profit.

Robust Optimization for Location-routing Problem with Uncertain Demand under Risk

SUN Hua-li, CUI Quan-yi, XUE Yao-feng

2017, 26(11):  26-34.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0256

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elief distribution is one of the key steps for emergency response after a major public emergency. Considering the randomness and the risk of emergency logistics system, an emergency logistics system of three level network including the uncertain demand and facility failure risk by multimodal transportation is studied. The model of emergency location-routing problem with multi-objective is developed to maximize the total satisfaction, minimize the total system costs and total transportation time. An improved genetic algorithm is proposed to solve the model. Finally, the validity of the model and algorithm is demonstrated by a numerical example based on Wenchuan earthquake relief distribution. The results show that the robust optimization method can effectively deal with the risk of emergency logistics system. It provides an effective method to solve the emergency material security, timely delivery and the risk in emergency logistics system.

Multistage Portfolio Optimization Based on Several Risk Measures

ZHENG Cheng-li, YAO Yin-hong

2017, 26(11):  35-41.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0257

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This paper utilizes Mean-Variance(MV), VaR(Value at Risk), CVaR(Conditional VaR), HMCR(p=1,2,3)(Higher Moment Coherent Risk)to build multistage portfolio optimization. Firstly, testing the ability of discrimination for risk from the perspective of the coherent axiom and the consistence with stochastic dominance, and the HMCR(p=2,3) are much better than other risk measures. Then, we introduce the risk averse planning function under static and dynamic condition, and conditional versions of CVaR and HMCR. Finally, we give an empirical analyzes of constituent stocks of SSE 50 index and the index itself, and according to the cumulative returns of these risk measures portfolios and SSE 50 index, we find that multistage portfolios are better than single-stage portfolios, HMCR(p=2,3) are much better than SSE 50 index and the other risk measures. In addition, we consider the investors’ investment decision, and find that the positive investment strategy of HMCR(p=2,3) can get a high cumulative returns in the stable period, peak period and decline period of stock market, and the negative investment of index would be much better in the rise period of stock market.

A Multi-objective Optimization Model for Re-synchronizing of Bus Network Timetable

WU Ying-hui, ZHU Yi-fan, JI Ying

2017, 26(11):  42-48.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0258

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Transit operators try to synchronize vehicle timetables of lines at transfer nodes to facilitate passenger transfers by adjusting bus departure times of the existing timetable, which aims to improve the bus service quality. Regarding this situation, a multi-objective re-synchronizing of bus timetable(MSBT)problem is studied. We propose a multi-objective optimization model for the MSBT, which is characterized by headway-sensitive passenger demand, flexible synchronization and service regularity. By clarifying the mathematical properties and complexity of the model, we prove that the MSBT problem is NP-hard, and its Pareto-optimal front is non-convex. A non-dominated sorting genetic(NSGA-II)based algorithm is designed to solve the MSBT model. Compared with enumeration method, numerical experiments show that the designed algorithm can generate high-quality Pareto solutions within reasonable times.


Improved Heuristic Algorithm for a Single-machine Single-subcontractor Scheduling and Outsourcing Integrated Optimization Problem

LIU Le

2017, 26(11):  49-58.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0259

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This paper considers the single-machine single-subcontractor scheduling and outsourcing integrated optimization problem, where the objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the total completion time and total outsourcing cost, while the total outsourcing cost is subject to an upper limit. An improved removal heuristic (IRH) algorithm is developed to solve this problem. In this algorithm, the set of initial outsourcing jobs is obtained by solving new auxiliary problem with the dynamic programming technique, and specific jobs are removed from the initial outsourcing job set by introducing a judgement condition in advance. In view of the upper limit on the total outsourcing cost, there is a novel heuristic filtering sequence clan to determine the removed jobs in current outsourcing job set one by one. In simulation experiments, by generating plenty of test instances, the performance of IRH and two reported heuristics in solution quality and computational times is compared. As demonstrated in the results, IRH significantly outperforms two reported heuristics in terms of overall solution quality, and it is capable of solving test instance with up to 1500 jobs within 5.6 seconds.

A Product WOM Ranking Method Based on Consumer Reviews

YANG Xian, DANG Yan-zhong, WU Jiang-ning

2017, 26(11):  59-64.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0260

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In the era of E-commerce, online word-of-mouth (WOM) of products is more and more important for consumers to make purchase decisions when shopping online. This paper proposes an effective WOM ranking method by two kinds of consumer reviews dataset, such as means of ratings and comparative votes on products. It firstly computes relative WOM based on comparative votes, and then modifies the original ratings by the method of True Bayesian Average. Afterwards it combines relative WOM ratings and modified ratings to form the summarized WOM ratings for all products. At last a ranking of all products can be derived based on summarized WOM ratings. Evaluation on the proposed WOM ranking method is conducted by using the real world datasets coming from a famous third party review website in China. Empirical results show that the WOM ranking list obtained by our approach has a higher support than other methods and also has a highest correlation with products sales ranking.

Perfection and Extension of a Ranking Method Based on the Virtual Decision-making Unit

HAN Wei-yi

2017, 26(11):  65-69.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0261

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In the paper, a ranking method based on the virtual decision-making unit is perfected and extended, which is developed in[1]. Firstly, according to CCR model, two special models are presented, which are DEA model only with input data and DEA model only with output data. Secondly, based on these two models, decision-making units only with input data or output data can be ranked by applying the mentioned-above method. Thirdly, the computational method of parameter a is given. Finally, the calculation accuracy of ranking method is improved efficiently by modifying ranking models. As a result, the improved method can avoid the situation, in which two decision-making units can’t be ranked as their relative efficiency values are very small. Furthermore, its application range is enlarged.

Single-machine Exponentially Time-dependent Learning Effect Scheduling Problem with Release Time

YAN Ping, WANG Ji-bo, ZHAO Li-qiang

2017, 26(11):  70-76.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0262

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A single-machine scheduling problem with exponentially time-dependent learning effect and release time is studied in this paper. The exponentially time-dependent learning effect means that the actual processing time of a job is an exponential function of processing times of jobs already processed. We assume that the actual processing time of a job depends on both the job’s normal processing time and the cumulative normal processing times of all jobs already processed and consider the minimization of the total completion time as the objective function. This problem is NP-hard, and a mathematical programming model and a branch-and-bound algorithm combining with some dominance properties and lower bounds are presented to derive the optimal solution for the problem. A heuristic algorithm is also proposed to improve the upper bounds of the branch-and-bound algorithm. Computational experiments are presented to verify the performance of the branch-and-bound algorithm in terms of solution quality and time.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Behaviors of Coal Mine Safety Groups Based on PT-MA Theory

HAN Shuai, CHEN Hong, LONG Ru-yin

2017, 26(11):  77-86.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0263

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Combining Prospect Theory(PT)and Mental Accounts(MA)theory into the decision-making process of evolutionary game of miner groups and supervision groups, this paper constructs different income prospect sensing matrix from the gain account and pay account to seek the balance of different evolution systems. The paper shows that if the deviations of value perception between the safe supervisory behaviors is positive convergence, the evolution system will be made the optimal state. But the evolution is non-ideal based on the reality of the situation: (1)the safety behavior cost and the supervision cost are high, but the gain of safety behavior and supervision behavior are low; (2)the value of reference point of the gain sensing function is high, but the value of reference point of the pay sensing function is low; (3)miners and supervision groups facing the profits of gain account tend to be risk aversion, but miners and supervision group facing the profits of pay account tend to be risk proneness; (4)group decision-making is more likely to underestimate the high probability event (accident probability, supervision probability and reporting probability) and group behavior evolution does not reach ideal results. The construction of Matlab algorithm of evolutionary game analysis verifies the effect of various parameters on the behavior evolution, and gives new ideas to safety supervision of coal mines and provides reference value for safety supervision in other fields.

GM(1,1)Model Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers and Its Application to Grey Development Decision Making

LI Peng, ZHU Jian-jun

2017, 26(11):  87-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0264

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This paper researches on grey prediction model based on the sequences of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and proposes grey development decision making by utilizing this model. The GM(1,1)model(grey model of 1 order equation and 1 variable) of the sequences of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is constructed by utilizing the score function and hesitant degree of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers according to the idea of core and grey degree.Then the membership function and the non-membership function of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are obtained by the prediction model. Prediction of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers can be realized by the method.Then, a grey development decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and variable weight is proposed Finally. An example shows the feasibility and validity of this method.

Strategy on Low Carbon Emission Reduction, Promotion in Dual Channel Supply Chain Considering Brand Differentiation

ZHOU Xi-deng

2017, 26(11):  93-99.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0265

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Aimed at solving the problem of the low-carbon emission reduction, low-carbon promotion and brand strategy in a dual-channel supply chain, a stochastic differential game model is built. By using Hamilton-Jacobi-bellman equation, the optimal low-carbon emission reduction, the optimal advertising input and the optimal advertising sharing rate are solved under centralized and decentralized decision settings respectively. The results show that the low-carbon emission reduction in centralized decision settings is always higher than that in decentralized decision settings; the degree of products differentiation is positively correlated with the proportion of the retailer’s advertising in the traditional channels; the optimal low-carbon promotion strategy for the members of the supply chain not only is related to the difference of the brand, but also depends on the relative size of the marginal profits of the supply chain members in different channels; there exists a low carbon propaganda cost sharing ratio to achieve the coordination of manufacturers and retailers. And a numerical example is used to verify the relevant conclusions of this paper.

Opportunistic Maintenance Policy for Two-unit Series System with a Cold Standby Component

DONG Qiu-xian, CHEN Qin, LIU Ru-liang, ZHANG Fang, LIU Wei-dong

2017, 26(11):  100-104.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0266

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According to the two components series system with a cold standby unit, this paper proposes a maintenance strategy mixing preventive repair and opportunistic maintenance. An expression is derived for the long-term expected cost using the renewal reward theorem. The optimal opportunity repair threshold is studied, and the optimal solution is researched using differential calculus theory. Finally, the model is used for actual examples to verify the correctness of the analysis. It shows that the repair strategy proposed in this paper can save repair cost from the actual examples, and it provides reference for researching repair strategies of multi components series system with cold standby. This research gives helpful insight into equipment maintenance decision making in the real world.

Application Research

Evolutionary Dynamics of Consumers’ crowdfunding Strategies Based on Moran Process

WANG Xian-jia, HE Qi-long, QUAN Ji, GU Cui-ling

2017, 26(11):  105-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0267

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Consider the evolutionary dynamics of N homogeneous mixed consumers’ crowdfunding strategies, and each consumer could choose to participate in the crowdfunding or not. Based on Moran process, we obtain the fixation probability of participating and nonparticipating in the crowdfunding when the consumer groups are finite. Comparing the fixation probability of just one individual who takes the participating or nonparticipating in crowdfunding strategy with the neutral invasion probability, we obtain the conditions of the dominant strategy under the strong selectivity and the weak selectivity. Under the condition of strong selectivity, we find that when consumer size is less than some numerical value , nonparticipating strategy occupies the whole population, and the crowdfunding is a failure. Under the condition of weak selectivity, whether consumers choose the crowdfunding strategy depends on the net revenue and outlay cost. Evolution is stable in crowdfunding getting success ,when the net revenue is greater than the triple of the outlay cost. Evolution is stable in crowdfunding getting failure, when the net revenue is less than half of the triple of the outlay cost.

The R&D Project Investment Decision Analysis under Coopetition Condition

CAO Bo-yang, JIANG Ming-hui

2017, 26(11):  111-119.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0268

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The successful R&D projects will bring huge profit for the high-tech enterprises, but there are some uncertainties from technical risk, economic risk and sudden risks in research and development process. In order to cope with the uncertainties, some enterprises have to make a cost sharing alliance in R&D project investment, but they will compete in cooperation for more benefits. It needs to be very accurate in valuation of the projects in the coopetition condition before investment. There are four kinds of investment decisions for two high-tech enterprises under coopetition condition: first-mover, follower, investment together at once, and investment after waiting. By utilizing the European option value to quantify the uncertainties, this paper establishes the corresponding R&D projects investment decision payoff mathematics model which can assess the timing and payoffs of the investment. When the cost sharing alliance has maximum profit, the investment decisions will be the optimal investment decisions for the two enterprises. After Shapley value calculation, the two high-tech enterprises could obtain their own profit from the for R&D project in coopetition.

Research on the Efficiency of Biomass Power Generation Industry Based on the Network DEA Model

YAN Qing-you, YIN Jie-ting

2017, 26(11):  120-128.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0269

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The development of biomass power generation industry is not only affected by itself, but also impacted of upstream and downstream industries. According to the special relationship between biomass power generation industry and agriculture, in the paper we established the Bio-AG system, and introduced property right to solve the negative externality caused by the pollution, used DEA model and DDF measurement method to analyze the efficiency of biomass power generation industry, and find out the reason of the inefficiency. The research shows that when the property right is concentrated in the Bio-AG system, the negative external factors are processed internally, the overall profit reached the maximum. In addition, the main factor affecting the inefficiency of biomass power generation industry is the allocation of resources.

Optimal Reinsurance Strategy under Return on Risk-adjusted Capital Rate

MENG Hui, ZHOU Ming, DONG Ji-chang

2017, 26(11):  129-133.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0270

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The return on risk-adjusted capital(RORAC)is an important index of the risk-based profitability measurement, and is a valid tool to measure risk adjusted financial performance, which has been widely used in the banking industry. In recent years, in the reinsurance business for insurance companies, this index is used more and more to measure the profitability and risk. In this paper, we reconsider the return on risk-adjusted capital with reinsurance control, and we prove that, for the general reinsurance retention function, the layered reinsurance strategy is the optimal form. Furthermore, we get the optimal reinsurance layered level and the optimal return on risk-adjusted capital. Finally, we give an example and some numerical analysis.

Research on Cluster Property of Volatility of International Main Stock Markets

SU Mu-ya

2017, 26(11):  134-144.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0271

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In this paper, multiway normalized cut spectral clustering, univariate GARCH model and Granger causality model are used to analyze cluster property of volatility of the international main stock markets. First, the GARCH model is used to depict volatility of the main markets, then partition the volatility data sets by spectral clustering method. At last, the Granger causality test model is used to analyze spillover among the main markets during different periods. The results show that during the financial crisis cluster number is larger than other periods, clustering quality is higher and clustering result is more stable. During the period of financial crisis, relations among the main markets are becoming closer.

Research on Contract Design for Inventory Financing Considering the Loss of Pledged Goods

ZHANG Yun-feng, WANG Yong, GONG Beng-gang

2017, 26(11):  145-153.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0272

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The paper studies the contract design for perishable products between the financial institution and the third logistics service provider. When the inventory is pledged, the effort level of 3PLs in supervision will affect the expected returns of the financial institution. As a result, the financial institution should give 3PLs an incentive contract to stimulate 3PLs to improve the effort level of his/her supervision. Given that the loss of inventory occurs in the period of pledge, the article builds up the fuctions of expected returns of the financial institution and 3PLs. Then the article analyses the features of the fixed payment and the inventive cofficient when the financing institution and 3PLs adopt the modes of consigning superision, joint operation, and unified credit cooperation. Subsequently, this paper derives the optimal effort level of superision in each mode. Finally, through a numerical example, the expected returns of the three modes are compared, and the influences of the loss rate, the effect cost coefficient, and the value realization coefficient on the decision variables are investigated. The results show that there is a critical value of the value realization coefficient. If the value realization coefficient is greater than the critical value, the total expected returns of the unified credit mode is the largest. If the value realization coefficient is less than the critical value, the total expected returns of the consigning superision mode is the largest.

The Pricing Model of Housing Presale Contract in Option Perspective

HU Rong, ZHENG Jun

2017, 26(11):  154-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0273

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Housing presale contract gives buyers the right to buy houses at a given price, which is the nature of options. In this paper we firstly regard housing presale contract as the option contract of house price based on the fact that the real estate market has friction. Then the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is used to simulate the evolution process of house price, and the analytical expression of the reasonable price of the presale contract (i.e. down payment) is derived. Finally, the difference between the presale prices derived by adopting the geometric Brown motion and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to simulate the changes of housing prices is compared. The results show that the arbitrage space of presale contract price based on the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process is smaller than that obtained from the geometric Brownian motion.

Option Pricing Model Based on Asymmetric GARCH-GH and Its Empirical Analysis

ZHANG Gao-xun, ZHANG Hong-lei

2017, 26(11):  161-168.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0274

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In this paper, the Eerser measurement transformation technique is used to construct the asymmetric GARCH-GH option pricing formula. In this formula, the non normal distribution and the asymmetric GARCH model are used to describe the peak, the thick tail, the skewness distribution and the random fluctuation characteristics of the financial assets. The empirical results show that compared with the HN model (Heston and Nandi(2000)), which is called the new standard of option pricing, the pricing error of EGARCH-NIG model is small, and the pricing error of the EGARCH-NIG model is reduced by 26.24% compared with the HN model. For the real valued option, the pricing errors of EGARCH-GH, GJR-GH and GJR-NIG model are less than the HN model. The estimation error and the real valued degree is negative correlation: the real valued degree is stronger, and the error is smaller.

Management Science

Research on the Evolution of Enterprise Cooperative Innovation Behavior with Strong Reciprocity Theory

YUAN Chi, YU Hong-lei, YANG De-li

2017, 26(11):  169-175.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0275

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In this paper a model for evolution of enterprise cooperative innovation behavior with strong reciprocity theory is established. Enterprises are divided into three types of cooperators, speculators and reciprocators. The basic evolutionary game model is analyzed, and two equilibrium solutions are found by solving the replicator dynamic equations. The evolution model with relax conditions is analyzed by simulation, and a new equilibrium is found. The results show that strong reciprocity behavior can be generated by evolution and it can suppress speculate behavior in the cooperative innovation system. The three types of enterprises can coexist and form the evolutionary stable strategies (ESS).The results provide a basis for decision making in enterprise cooperation innovation organization and help promote further development for enterprise cooperative innovation theory.

Research on R & D Effect of Private Enterprise’s Actual Controller’s Change Based on PSM Method ——From the Empirical Data of Listed Private Enterprises in China

WAN Lun-lai, WAN Xiao-yu, WANG Qin

2017, 26(11):  176-181.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0276

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The paper is based on the A-Stock firms that the actual controllers have changed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the propensity score matching is used to examine the change of the management turnover on the private enterprises’ R&D effect. The results show that: the management turnover of private enterprises has a significant positive impact on enterprise R&D, and the R&D investment intensity is an average increase of 24.04% three years after the management turnover; By respectively to test the impact of the management turnover on the enterprises’ R&D behaviors between family firms and non-family firms, we find that family firms’ R&D investment is generally lower than non-family firms, but the upgrade effect of management turnover in family firms on the R&D is significantly better than in non-family firms, which means the management turnover during the period of the intergenerational inheritance in family firms is beneficial to strengthen enterprise innovation ability.

Mechanism Design for Coalmine Safety Management with Overconfident Manager

CHEN Ke-gui, WANG Xin-yu, SONG Xue-feng, ZHANG Ming-hui

2017, 26(11):  182-189.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0277

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For the status of China’s coalmine safety supervision and the coalmine manager’s overconfidence behavior, the two-stage multitask principal-agent model consisting of government, coalmine enterprise and overconfident manager is constructed, and the impact of the manager’s overconfidence level on its own safety supervision effort, the coalmine enterprise’s incentive coefficient, the government’s rewards and punishment coefficient and the government's safety performance is analyzed. The results are further compared to the completely rational scenario. It is found that, as the manager’s overconfidence level increases, the manager’s safety supervision effort level, the rewards and punishment coefficient, and the corresponding safety work performance deviate far away from the rational scenario. Finally a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed model and results, which finds an appropriate decision support for the coalmine safety supervision and practice.

Government’ s Compensation Mechanism for PPP Project Based On Risk Preference

DU Yang, FENG Jing-chun

2017, 26(11):  190-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0278

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Considering the different risk preference between the public and the private, the government’s compensation coordination mechanism of PPP project are respectively studied on the the centralization decision-making Stackelberg game and decentralization decision. The research results show that the private can not be induced to make a decision in accordance with optimization of whole project by a direct compensation in risk aversion model. Then a hybrid contract is proposed for this problem and government will share a part of construction investment in this contract. And the analysis shows that this contract can coordinate the centralization and decentralization decision when the proportion of government construction investment is suitable. Finally, a numerical analysis is presented to further illustrate the theoretical analysis results.