Table of Content

25 July 2018, Volume 27 Issue 7

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Theory Analysis and Methodology Study

Analysis of Two-echelon Supply Chain Inventory Policy for Perishable Drugs Considering Shelf Life

LIU Lu, WU Jun, LI Jian, YANG Feng-mei

2018, 27(7):  1-9.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0151

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Hospital drugs have strict requirements in shelf life, service level, and inventory space. Based on the classic Economic Order Quantity and Economic Production Quantity model, this paper first develops two-echelon Supply Chain inventory models of hospital and manufacturer for perishable drug considering shelf life and inventory space. The optimal solutions of the inventory model are obtained by using MATLAB. Sensitivity analysis of some key parameters is conducted. Then the conclusions are obtained. Drug shelf life has a certain effect on the ordering quantity of hospital, the production lots of manufacturer and total inventory cost. And it has a relatively large impact on the manufacturer's production lots and total inventory cost of hospital. Drug failure will bring greater losses to total inventory cost, if it doesn't take shelf life into consideration. Finally the influence of shelf life to the inventory policy for perishable drugs is verified by the numerical analysis and the sensitivity analysis.

Ordering Decision in Logistics Service Supply Chain with Stochastic Demand

DU Ni, HAN Qing-lan

2018, 27(7):  10-19.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0152

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This paper considers a logistics supply chain with a logistics services integrator and a functional logistics service provider, where customers demand is a stochastic exponential function of quality defect rate guarantee of functional logistics service provider. In order to explore the ordering and quality defect rate guarantee decision problem of the logistics service supply chain, the optimal ordering and quality defect rate guarantee of logistics service integrator and functional logistics service provider are presented under three typical game modes: centralized decisions, Nash game, Stackelberg game. Through analysis, it is found that the quality defects rate guarantee is decreased in market demand elasticity coefficient, but the impact of the observation level of logistics services integrator on the quality defects rate guarantee varies with different typical game modes; in the centralized mode, the ordering is decreased with the observation level of logistics services integrator or market demand elasticity coefficient, while the ordering is increased with the observation level of logistics services integrator or market demand elasticity coefficient in the other typical game modes; Additionally, in the three different typical game modes, the overall profit of logistics service supply chain is decreased with market demand elasticity coefficient, but has different relationship with the observation level of logistics services integrator in different typical game modes.

Supply Chain Coordination Based on Options Contract with Jointed Carbon Emission Reduction Cost Sharing

XU Chun-qiu

2018, 27(7):  20-27.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0153

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Based on the fact that consumers usually have low carbon product preferences, this paper studies options contract with the random demand affected by emission reduction and establishes a supply chain model consisting of one single manufacturer and one single retailer. In this model, the manufacturer is the leader who proposes options contract, and the retailer is the follower who purchases the options contract. We find that due to the existence of double marginalization effect, the supply chain could achieve the coordination only when the retail price is equal to the option exercise price. But, in this case, the retailer's profit is negative, and it cannot meet the participation constraint. Therefore, to reduce the option exercise price, we add options contract as a supplement and increase cost sharing contract. It is shown that option contract with jointed carbon emission reduction cost sharing can coordinate the supply chain. Finally, we verify the conclusions by the results of example, compute the profits of both the manufacture and retailer, the changes of the retailer`s profit and cost sharing ratio affected by changes of the option price and the option exercise price, and analyze the sensitivity of carbon emission difficulty factor.

Optimal Ordering Policy for Deteriorating Items under Line of Credit

LIN Feng, JIA Tao, ZHU Gui-yang

2018, 27(7):  28-36.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0154

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In practice, the supplier would not only grant the retailer delay in payments to stimulate the order quantity, but also set the upper limit for the retailer's accounts payable (i.e., line of credit), thus avoiding the negative effects of the retailer's accounts payable on the supplier's opportunity cost of capital and financial risk. In the context of line of credit, this paper studies the retailer's optimal ordering policy for deteriorating items. By developing the retailer's opportunity cost of capital, the retailer's five different cost functions can be obtained. The derived properties of these five objective functions can be applied to determine the retailer's optimal ordering decisions under line of credit clause. Numerical examples indicate that a reasonable value of line of credit can help the supplier to control the order quantity and the retailer's account payable within an appropriate range. In addition, the line of credit could mitigate the pressure of supplier's working capital, but increase the retailer's average cost to a certain extent.

Emergency Location-routing Model with Uncertain Demands under Path Risks

SUN Hua-li, CAO Wen-qian, XUE Yao-feng, WANG Xun-qing

2018, 27(7):  37-42.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0155

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Location-routing problem (LRP) is an important logistics problem in emergency management. Considering the risk of road congestion, the risk of road damage, the risk of the road complexity and the demand uncertainty of relief commodities, a multi-objective optimization model based on robust optimization theory aiming at minimizing the longest distribution routine time and the total logistic system cost is developed. Comparison of several cases is made to indicate that the total system cost, the longest path transportation delivery time and the total system cost all show the tendency of increase with the growth of the controlling parameters. The total cost is higher when the demand disruption is greater, which proves the effectiveness of the robust optimization model. It provides an effective method to solve the emergency material security, timely delivery and the risk in emergency logistics system.

Task-Resource Integrated Assignment Model for Collaborative Logistics Network under Multi-Stage Concurrence

XU Xiao-feng, LIU Jing

2018, 27(7):  43-48.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0156

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As a dynamic open network, the collaborative logistics network has to allocate multiple resources in order to complete a number of parallel logistics tasks. Therefore, from the point of view of the logistics service integrator, this paper studies the task —resource integrated allocation problem with time windows and resource constraints. Then, it uses the genetic algorithm to solve the model in order to match appropriate resources for the task stages from the candidate set of resources. The example results show that this model can make N-N tasks and resources integrated deploy effectively and make the overall benefits of the collaborative logistics network the best.

Influence of Forecasting Information Sharing on Dual-channel Manufacturer's Referral Strategies

GUO Qiang,LI Zeng-lu, NIE Jia-jia

2018, 27(7):  49-57.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0157

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The referral strategies problem of dual-channel manufacturer is studied considering the influence of retailer's forecasting information sharing. First, we establish the decision model based on the asymmetric information game theory, and then derive the equilibrium sales, wholesale price and optimal expected profit under manufacturer's different referral strategies. The results show that: when the referral market size is small, the manufacturer recommends the consumer who views the manufacturer's homepage to the official store, but when the referral market size is large, the manufacturer recommend the consumer to the official store and retailing store. At this time, the retailer has no incentives to share its forecast information with the manufacturer, thus we develop a mechanism to encourage the retailer share information with the manufacturer. Under this mechanism, if the retailer has strong negotiating power and accuracy forecast information, the referral strategy from the referral official and retailing store changes to just the referral official store.

Option Game Analyses on the Pricing and Timing of Firm in Financial Distress M&A Under Hyper-Competition

GUAN Jian, YAN Yan

2018, 27(7):  58-67.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0158

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Based on the option game theory and the fact of acquiring firms cooperating with each other, the study establishes models for the choice of the pricing and timing of target firm in financial distress M&A under the hyper-competition environment. After getting the optimal M&A timing, the paper progresses numerical simulation analysis and emphasizes analyzing the influence of hyper-competition variables (competitive intensity, competitive uncertainty, loss factor of enterprise value),the importance of the participants in acquiring firms alliance, the occurrence probability of cooperation opportunism in alliance and firm distressed factor on M&A timing.

Evolutionary Game Analysis between the Residents Waste Classification Behavior and Government Charging Behavior

ZHANG Shuang, SUN Shao-rong, MA Hui-min

2018, 27(7):  68-75.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0159

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In order to explore the effect of government waste charging policy in the implementation of residents' waste classification, this paper analyzes the respective costs and benefits of government and residents under different strategies. The evolutionary game model of residents and governments is constructed by means of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary stability strategies are analyzed. The results show that the garbage sorting behavior of the residents is related to residents' environmental awareness and the government's charging policy. The government can strengthen the propaganda and the establishment of a reasonable garbage charging policy to guide residents to waste classification.

Stochastic Comparison of Inventory Systems Under Supply Leadtime and Demand Uncertainty

YU Hai-bo, YANG Fan, LI Yuan

2018, 27(7):  76-83.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0160

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This paper studies sufficient conditions of stochastic comparison conformity on newsvendor problem which includes the minimization of cost and maximizing profit problem under lead time and demand uncertainty, and quantitative analysis characterizes the impact of lead time and demand uncertainty on order decision and inventory profit through stochastic comparison. We introduce newsvendor profit function to describe its sufficient condition of stochastic dominance and Laplace order before and after optimization, and then verify by exponential period demand with fixed and geometric leadtime. Finally, the above results are applied to the newsvendor model, and the random monotonicity of leadtime demand for the uniform newsvendor problem is obtained.

Dynamic Collaborative Decision Model of Emergency Material Reserves Based on Interval Two Type Trapezoid Fuzzy Sets

ZHU Jia-xiang, CAI Jian-fei, DENG Shu-fen, LIN Xu-xun

2018, 27(7):  84-92.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0161

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Emergency material reserves decision-making under major disasters is one of the effective measures to prevent the spread of a sudden disasters. A dynamic collaborative decision-making model of emergency material reserves based on interval two-type trapezoidal fuzzy sets is constructed according to the uncertainty and complexity of disaster relief information in this paper, and the emergency material reserve strategy is given on this basis. A group decision model of emergency material supplier selection under normal environment is constructed by using proportional analysis method (COPRAS) and decision-making program of interval-type fuzzy set theory to solve the problem of conflict between inconsistent decision attributes; and then, a fuzzy optimization model of emergency material reserve structure is constructed to realize the dynamic coordination between normal decision and abnormal emergency decision by considering the influence of “The Dynamic Time Factors of Disaster Relief” on reserve decision; Finally, a case study of the “6.14” sudden flood disaster in Lijiang, Yunnan in 2012 shows that the dynamic collaborative decision-making model is reasonable and feasible, and can effectively solve the structure optimization problem of emergency material reserve under dynamic disaster relief environment.

A Consensus Decision-making Approach with Uncertain Linguistic Information Based on Cumulative Consensus Contribution

ZHANG Shi-tao, ZHU Jian-jun, LIU Xiao-di, CHANG Zhi-peng

2018, 27(7):  93-101.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0162

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An adaptive linguistic consensus decision-making approach based on cumulative consensus contribution is presented for group decision-making problems with uncertain additive linguistic preference information. First, the uncertain additive linguistic preferences are transformed into the uncertain 2-tuple preferences. The individual consistency measure and the individual consensus deviation measure are defined, respectively. An optimization model to determine initial weights on experts is established with the help of the above two definitions. Then, the aggregated fuzzy evaluating matrix and the aggregated group preference are constructed by using possibility degree between the two uncertain 2-tuple preferences. The measure of expert cumulative consensus contribution to group and the group consensus measure are developed. By penalizing weights of the least cooperating experts, group consensus is achieved, without forcing the experts to modify their opinions. A group consensus decision-making approach is developed, and a ranking order of alternatives and the best alternative are obtained. Finally, an example study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Impact on Remanufacturing Decision for Durable Goods Monopolist with Second-hand Market

LIU Dong-xia, CHEN Hong

2018, 27(7):  102-110.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0163

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Considering the characteristics of durable goods can be used in multi-period, we construct a remanufacturing decision model for durable goods monopolist from the perspective of consumer utility. By using the stationary equilibrium analysis method, some conclusions are drawn. The existence of a second-hand market would reduce the cost threshold for durable goods monopolist to choose remanufacturing strategy, and raise the optimal pricing for new durable goods, and moreover, reduce the optimal pricing for remanufactured goods. The larger the value of new durable goods is, the lower the remanufacturing costs are, and the more influence a second-hand market has on the optimal decision for durable goods monopolist. At last, the theoretical results are tested by numerical analysis.

Application Research

City Size, Charging Infrastructure Construction and the Cultivation of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Market

SUN Xiao-hua, LIU Xiao-ling, YU Run-qun

2018, 27(7):  111-121.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0164

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As a complementary product of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), the construction of charging facilities is an important factor in deciding the growth of AFV industry. From the perspective of city size, this paper builds a simulation model depicting the decision-making process of both firms and consumers based on the history-friendly framework, and sets the parameters referring to statistical data. The evolution dynamics of AFV industry is simulated in order to compare the impact of charging infrastructure construction on the cultivation of AFV markets among cities of different size.The results show that given current market conditions remain constant, the possession quantity of AFVs tends to increase year by year, but compared with conventional vehicles, it is still hard for the average market share of AFVs to surpass 4%; The number of AFVs per charging station serves in cities of different size is subject to the gradient distribution, which means the larger a city is, the lower utilization rate of charging stations it owns; Accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure helps reduce charging time cost, thus increasing consumers' purchase desire for AFVs. Through the comparison of simulation results among cities of different size, it could be seen that the effect of charging station construction on the cultivation of AFV market is the most significant in third-tier cities, which suggests future policies should provide more support to small sized cities.

Feeder Liner Network Design Model Considering Schedule Reliability

DU Jian, ZHAO Xu, WANG Jun, ZHAO Yuan

2018, 27(7):  122-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0165

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The influence factors of route choice not only include the arrival time and container freight, but also include the cargo rejection rate and arrival on-time rate for reliability evaluation. As for this, the uncertainties of port time and sail time have been introduced into our study, the correlation of each port of call also included. Based on the voyage simulation, we calculate the arrival time distribution at each port of call and the maximum capacity distribution in each voyage trip. With the constraints of cargo rejection and arrival on-time limit, maximum ship capacity and longest round-trip time, we optimize the route network structure, the optimal ship capacity, service frequency and committed arrival time simultaneously. Aimed at our NP-hard problem with uncertain parameters, one simulation-based intelligent optimization algorithm has been proposed. In this algorithm, the scheme simulation technology is used to deal with the multiple distribution functions, and the intelligent optimization theory is used for searching the satisfied scheme. Finally, the effectiveness of voyage simulation and our model have been verified, which show: the route choice probability of designed liner network has reached 64%; whether the choice-preference is transportation time or fee, it can be satisfied by our design scheme.

Carbon Price Forecasts in Chinese Carbon Trading Market Based on EMD-GA-BP and EMD-PSO-LSSVM

CUI Huan-ying, DOU Xiang-sheng

2018, 27(7):  133-143.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0166

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Because of large price fluctuation in carbon trading market and its complicated influence on carbon price caused by some uncertainty factors, the short-term and the long-term optimal forecasting models are built to forecast the carbon price. Considering the periodicity and?trend of carbon price fluctuation, this paper conducts the short-and the long-term forecasts of China's carbon price based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), genetic algorithm and back propagation neural net model (GA-BP), particle swarm optimization and least squares support vector machines model(PSO-LSSVM) and their combination models. Different macroeconomic factors affecting carbon price and carbon price time series are respectively employed as input variables into the combination models and two sub-models for forecasting in empirical analysis. The results show that, the EMD-GA-BP model performs better than the GA-BP model and the PSO-LSSVM model in the short-term forecasting, while the combination models (EMD-PSO-LSSVM) perform better than the sub-models in the long-term forecasting.

Pricing the Reward Model of Crowdfunding

LV Xiu-mei, SHAO Teng-wei

2018, 27(7):  144-151.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0167

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This paper constructs a reward crowdfunding model to study crowdfunder's pricing strategies on how to increase his profit and success rate of crowdfunding. The model considers three stages including financing from backers, providing products to backers and selling products to ordinary consumers. Then the paper makes comparative static to discuss the impact of value-added service provided by crowdfunder and consumption patience degree of backers. The results show that it is a dynamic game process about price and utility between crowdfunder and backers and achieves Nash equilibrium eventually. The value-added service provided by crowdfunder and the consumption patience degree of consumers have a different impact on backer's profit and on the success of crowdfunding, so the product prices and the funding goal should be set in a reasonable range.

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Foreign Institutional Investors' Shareholding Period and Corporate Governance Performances

YANG Jia-lin, WANG Man-cang, REN Xiao-yan, GU Jie, YANG Shui-li

2018, 27(7):  152-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0168

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In this article, the companies of qualified foreign institutional investors' (QFII) shareholding in Shanghai and Shenzhen A share listed companies for 2003~2015 are selected as research samples. QFII shareholding periods are divided into three types: short-term shareholding, medium-term shareholding and long-term shareholding. The effects of QFII different shareholding periods on corporate governance performances are studied through theoretical and empirical analysis. The results show that QFII pursues financial investment philosophy, gains investment income from the spread between buying and selling prices, and has no effect on corporate governance performances when QFII shareholding period is short-term. QFII will have an effect on corporate governance performances when QFII shareholding period is medium-term, but the influence is weak. QFII pursues value investment philosophy, influences corporate governance performances through actively participating in corporate governance, and then gains high investment income when QFII shareholding period is long-term. These findings not only provide an important reference for domestic institutional investors and Chinese listed companies, but also provide policy suggestions for China introducing QFII.

Optimization on Loan-to-value Ratios of Exporting Offshore/In-transit Inventory Financing with Limited Credit and Exogenous Default Probabilities

YANG Hua-long, WANG Zi-cheng, ZHOU Yong

2018, 27(7):  161-169.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0169

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The loan-to-value ratios optimization is one of the key issues in the decision-making of exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing. In this paper, the issue of exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing decisions concerning triple overlapped risks is addressed, including the exporter's credit risk, the exporter's and the importer's exogenous default risks, and the collateral value fluctuation risk. Based on the theory of double Stackelberg game, in the context of given exporter's credit line and given exogenous default probabilities of exporter and importer, the authors establish the linkage optimization models among the price of goods, the order quantity and the loan-to-value ratio. The objective of the models is to maximize the respective expected profit of the exporter, the importer and the shipping company under supply chain coordination and equilibrium. Differential and backward induction methods are designed to solve the models. The numerical example verifies the applicability and validity of the proposed models. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the loan-to-value ratio has a negative correlation with the exporter's credit line, and is insensitive to the exogenous default probabilities of exporters and importers. The findings would provide scientific guidance to the optimal decision-making of exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing.

Real Option Evaluation in PPP Projects under Uncertainty of Interest Rate

LIU Ji-cai, GAO Ruo-lan, XIE Rui-feng

2018, 27(7):  170-176.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0170

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Due to the long concession period of PPP projects, there are many risks. The traditional real option evaluation takes into account the value of future uncertainty and flexibility of managers, where it is generally assumed that the risk-free rate is fixed. However, it fluctuates in a long term, and the ignorance of the fluctuation will lead to policy mistakes made by investors. The value of real option in PPP projects is evaluated considering the volatility of risk-free rate in future. This paper analyzes the options in PPP projects first. Then risk-free rate delta inverter function is studied, on this basis of which we get the model of real option through simulation. Using case analysis the research compares the differences of real option value at fixed interest rate and stochastic interest rate. The results illustrate that the value of the options under stochastic interest rate is greater than that of the options under the fixed interest rate. The contribution of this research is to provide scientific basis for investors of PPP projects to make decisions.

Management Science

Research on the Service Innovation Diffusion of Manufacturing Enterprises Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

XU Jian-zhong, FU Jing-wen, LI Feng-shu

2018, 27(7):  177-183.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0171

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The paper is based on the background of “Made in China 2025” strategy. Following the innovation diffusion and evolutionary game theory, related to the participation of service innovation in the social system analysis, it constructs a evolutionary game model for the government and enterprises, which is combined with the improved Bass classic innovation diffusion model, explores the impact of government regulation on enterprise service innovation behavior evolution and diffusion, uses Matlab to analyse the dynamic functions and the numerical diffusion models. The result shows that when the total social benefit of the government is greater than the cost of regulation and the total amount of subsidies, and the additional increase of the income is greater than the actual investment, the system will evolve to be under the government regulation and the firm adoption of service innovation is stable. The proper increase in government regulation, investment subsidies and tax subsidies will help promote the diffusion of service innovation in the system, among which the perception of tax subsidies is the strongest and the subsidy is the weakest. The inhibition coefficient is introduced into the Bass innovation diffusion model and the diffusion model of three service innovations-complementary, competitive and alternative is constructed. The competitive diffusion conforms to the current marketing law of China, and the alternative diffusion will become the trend of future manufacturing enterprises.

Choice of the Service Patterns Based on E-commerce Platform

MU Li-feng, WANG Fang-yuan

2018, 27(7):  184-192.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0172

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With the rapid development of e-commerce, the ability to provide high-quality customer service has been proved critical for online retailers to gain competitive advantage. This article studies the selection strategies of service channel for e-commerce platforms and online retailers. A quantitative model is built to obtain the optimal solutions by analyzing four alternative service channels: online retailer providing service directly (channel A), online retailer outsourcing service to a third party (channel B), platform providing service directly (channel C) and platform outsourcing service to a third party (channel D). As is shown by the results, channel C achieves the highest service level and profit, while channel A and B offers customers the lowest price, which can lead to the following observations: The service level is reduced by decentralized service channel with the same service cost. Considering the service cost is different among these parties, e-commerce platforms and online retailers tend to provide services on their own to achieve maximum service level when the cost of service is relatively low but will outsource the service to a third party when the cost of service is relatively high. In addition, it is found that within channel A and B, the proportion of commission charged by the platform will decrease with the increase of sensitive coefficient of service towards to demand, but the result is reversed in channel C and D.

A Time-Cost-Quality Problem Considering Repairs in Construction

FU Fang, ZHANG Tao

2018, 27(7):  193-199.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0173

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Because quality can be recovered by repair work during construction, which affects project makespan and costs, we construct a new bi-objective non-linear programming model based on the classic multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem to minimize total cost and makespan. Moreover, the binary non-independent normal distribution function is adopted to describe the activity quality, and the quality of hidden work is defined according to the different relationships among activity qualities, namely, the coordinative and precedence relationship. Furthermore, a shuffled frog-leaping algorithm based on non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm is developed to solve the discrete trade-off problem. The algorithm is designed on an adaptive serial schedule generation scheme and adjusted activity list, where the frog-leaping progress combines the crossover operator of a genetic algorithm and permutation-based local search. Finally, an example of a construction project for a framed railway overpass is provided to examine the algorithm performance with classic NSGA.