关键词: 项目管理, 设计风险, 风险元传递, 系统动力学

Abstract: Design risk is one of the main reasons for leading to rework in the process of the construction. In this paper, based on the generic project risk element transmission theory and system dynamics, a system dynamics model of construction project design risk element transmission is developed. The factors leading to the quantity increase of construction projects are considered as design risk element, and after the analysis of transfer process of design risk element in construction project, a corresponding causal feedback loop is constructed. By assigning values to model variables and establishing functions between them, the model is simulated through software Vensim. The results indicate that design risk element exerts different degree of influence on project cost and time, and that the more design risk element occurs or the later design risk element occurs, the faster will the impact accelerate through the internal structure of project. In addition, it can be concluded that the model results chart, which reflects the dynamic changes of individual construction project, can provide sound evidence for risk management and project management.

Key words: project management, design risk, risk element transmission, system dynamics