运筹与管理 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 87-94.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0318

• 理论分析与方法探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于工期-成本综合效用最大的关键链项目缓冲确定

张俊光, 刘念   

  1. 北京科技大学 经济管理学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-04 出版日期:2021-10-25
  • 作者简介:张俊光(1972-),男,山东青岛人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:关键链项目管理;刘念(1997-),女,河南永城人,硕士研究生,研究方向:关键链项目管理。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572010)

Buffer Determination of Critical Chain Project Based on the Two-objective Optimization of Project Duration and Cost

ZHANG Jun-guang, LIU Nian   

  1. School ofEconomics and Management, University of science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2020-01-04 Online:2021-10-25

摘要: 为提高关键链中工期和成本的综合效用,研究一种基于关键链工期和成本进行双目标优化的缓冲确定方法。首先,该方法考虑项目不同工序间工期和成本之间的关系,并基于工期和成本的风险暴露度确定权重,解决不同工序间工期和成本偏好难以量化的问题;其次,根据权重多效用函数对工期和成本进行归一化处理,并确定综合效用最大情况下不同工序的最佳工期;最后基于尾部集中法确定项目缓冲。通过蒙特卡洛模拟实验,将此方法提取缓冲后的项目实际综合效用与传统方法进行比较。比较结果显示,该方法极大地提高项目中工期和成本的综合效用,并且对项目工期和成本均形成更有效的保护。

关键词: 项目管理, 关键链, 项目缓冲, 双目标优化, 综合效用

Abstract: To improve the comprehensive utility of project duration and cost in critical chain, a buffer determination method of two-objective optimization is studied. First of all, the proposed method considers the relationship between the duration and cost of different activities, and determines the weight based on the risk exposure of the duration and cost, which solves the problem that it is difficult to quantify the duration and cost preference between different activities. Secondly, according to the weighted multi utility function, the duration and cost are normalized, and the optimal duration of different activities under the condition of the maximum comprehensive utility is determined. Finally, the project buffer is determined based on the tail-concentration method. The Monte-Carlo simulation result shows that, as opposed to traditional methods, the integrated utility of the proposed method is greatly improved, and the proposed method can protect the project duration and cost more effectively.

Key words: project management, critical chain, project buffer, two-objective optimization, integrated utility

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