我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积的关联分析

doi:10.12005/orms.2016.0031

运筹与管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 246-253.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0031

我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积的关联分析

王琳, 齐中英, 潘峰

哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150001

收稿日期:2014-04-28 出版日期:2016-02-25
作者简介:王琳,女,博士研究生,主要研究方向为能源经济与战略;齐中英,男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为能源经济与战略。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71273074)

Relationship Analysis between Economic Output and Social Stock

WANG Lin, QI Zhong-ying, PAN Feng

School of Management, Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

Received:2014-04-28 Online:2016-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于动态物质流分析方法及时间序列分析方法,本文以我国1949-2012年年度数据为样本,研究了工业化演进过程中我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积之间的关联。研究结果表明,随着经济的发展和工业化进程的演进,钢以实物产品的形式不断蓄积于我国社会当中,且蓄积的速度不断加快。我国经济产出与钢的社会蓄积之间存在长期协整关系,钢的社会蓄积既能在短期内推动经济的增长,又影响着经济产出的长期整体走势,而经济产出只是钢社会蓄积变化的长期原因。这说明我国的经济建设高度依赖钢的使用,而且经济增长对钢需求的拉动是一个长期的过程,不会在短期内对钢的需求造成显著影响。

关键词: 经济产出, 工业化进程, 动态物质流分析, 钢, 存量

Abstract: The relationship between economic output and social stock of steel is studied using dynamic material flow analysis(MFA) and statistical time series analysis for the period of 1949 to 2012 on Chinese national level during the period of industrialization. The results show that social stock of steel increases in the form of physical products with the development of economy and the evolution of the industrialization, and the speed of growth has accelerated. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between economic output and social stock of steel, economic output is affected by the social stock of steel both in the short term and in the long run, and economic output is only the long-term Granger cause of social stock of steel. The results indicate that economic development is highly dependent on the use of steel, and the demand of steel is affected by economic output in a long-term process, but not in the short term.

Key words: economic output, industrialization process, dynamic MFA, steel, stock

中图分类号:

F416.31

王琳, 齐中英, 潘峰. 我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积的关联分析[J]. 运筹与管理, 2016, 25(1): 246-253.

WANG Lin, QI Zhong-ying, PAN Feng. Relationship Analysis between Economic Output and Social Stock[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2016, 25(1): 246-253.

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我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积的关联分析

Relationship Analysis between Economic Output and Social Stock

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