关键词: 重大区域规划, 政策效果, 效果评价, 关键因素

Abstract: By taking the national major regional planning, Yangtze River Delta, as the empirical research object, this paper selects three policy indicators: the earmarks from the national ministry of finance, the national subsidies income and the national investment in fixed assets, which are highly associated with the policy effectiveness evaluation, by Weighted Grey Relational Degree. The paper establishes Logarithmic Regression Function between policy indexes and planning indexes value-added of the tertiary industry. The predicted value of value-added of the tertiary industry in a specific year is forecasted from the historical data, which is contrasted with the actual value, for evaluating the effectiveness of the policy implementation. The first feature and creativity in this article is deleting the indexes which have small correlation with policy effect evaluation by Grey Relational Degree, in order to screen out the index which have a significant influence on the effectiveness of the major regional planning policy. Second, time weight vector is used to reflect that the grey weight of the nearer year’s index was higher of correlation and it will be more necessary to retain, which guarantees that the nearer the data, the more remarkable of the influence. Third, the effectiveness of the goal is contrasted with the realistic effect to get the policy performance. The goal effect is predicted by historical data without policy planning under natural condition. The realistic effect is measured under the implementation of planning policy at the prediction time. Empirical study shows that Central finance earmarks input, which has significantly influence on Shanghai and Zhejiang province, should be increased and national investment in fixed assets, which has less significance on Shanghai and Zhejiang province, and should be decreased.

Key words: regional planning, policy effectiveness, effect evaluation, key factor