关键词: 电子商务, 信用风险, 关键因素, 敏感性因素, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract: Facing the risk events of slow development of e-commerce, disorder of e-commerce market and collapse of e-commerce industry which are all caused by e-commerce credit issues, this paper uses the Bayesian network theory to construct the credit risk network model of e-commerce in China, in order to analyze the impact of both sensitivity factors and key factors on risk events. The results are shown by using GeNie simulation software: three crucial credit risk factors are higher technical fraud, lower economic efficiency and lack of national regulatory effort; the five sensitivity factors are uneasy new comers, reduction of transaction willingness, higher technical fraud, lower economic efficiency and information asymmetry. The study shows that the change of the key factors of credit risk will result in the change of sensitivity factors in credit risk, thus leading risk events to happen at last.

Key words: electronic commerce, credit risk, key factor, sensitivity factor, Bayesian network