关键词: 质保服务, 维修时间, 随机销售过程

Abstract: The manufacturers are forced to transit their operation models into a customer-centric mode by the fierce market competition. Thus, over the last 20 years, as the main factor that affects the customer satisfaction, the research of product warranty has become a focus issue for the academia. A good warranty service will save the company more operating costs. Therefore, for the new products being launched to the market, it is of great significance to accurately forecast the warranty demands for manufacturers to allocate funds properly. In the previous research, the forecasting models for warranty claims are limited to analyzing the total warranty cost of a product in the long-term sense, but ignoring the impact of product repair time and dynamic sales process on the product's total warranty demands and costs. To this end, we are focused on the repair demand and the impact of the repair time on the warranty demand forecasting. In the model, the non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate the dynamic sales process of the product, and the staggered updating theory in the composite stochastic process is used to characterize the effect of the repair time on the overall warranty demand. Finally, the parameter analysis provides an important reference for enterprises to better manage warranty services.

Key words: warranty service, repair time, random sales process