关键词: 管理科学, 区块优选, 决策模型, 动态多属性, 区间数, 页岩气

Abstract: How to select the most commercial shale gas play is the key factor of industrialization and commercialization for the shale gas industry and the top priority task of the firms that need to be engaged in unconventional gas production. This paper focuses on investment decision to optimize selection of shale gas plays under uncertainty. A fuzzy dynamic multi-attribute decision model is set up to explore the most commercial play and present the investment sequences of these plays which show the exploration orientation and investment priorities for oil companies. This paper is organized as follows: Firstly, the strategic role of shale gas exploration and production in China is introduced and its necessity of selecting the most profitable shale gas play is analyzed. Secondly, a problem to be solved is stated and the difficulties and complexities during the whole decision-making process are further analyzed. Thirdly, the dynamic multi-attribute model based on interval number is designed to explore how to select the most satisfied shale gas plays and provide the best investment opportunity, and the algorithm is given in section 2.2. Fourthly, a numerical example is shown to apply the mathematical model to select the most commercial shale gas play for the oil company according to the geological and geographical information, environmental expenditure, the principles of gas production and trend, and infrastructure investment, etc. Finally, the conclusion is presented in section 4. Whereas, the shale gas plays cannot be explored everywhere and the gas prices are not market-driven in China so that the results maybe optimistic or pessimistic. In any case, the result shows that the model is effective and practical tool for the oil company to improve the whole decision-making process.

Key words: management science, play optimization, decision-making model, dynamic multi-attribute, interval number, shale gas