关键词: 采购定价模型, 数量柔性契约, 状态转移, 帕累托改进

Abstract: The demand for emergency supplies after a sudden emergency strikes is growing at an explosive rate. In generally, the government first transfers regular supplies to disaster areas, and then makes decisions on relief supplies procurement according to the phased results. Because the state of the sudden disaster is always shifting, the purchased emergency supplies will result in waste if the emergency state gets better. The government can't meet the demand for emergency supplies if the emergency state continues to deteriorate. It is of great importance to take the state transition of emergencies into the government's procurement pricing strategies for emergency supplies. Therefore, this article applies quantity flexible contract (QFC) to the two-stage supply chain with a supplier and a single government. The procurement pricing model of the government's emergency supplies is established based on QFC considering the state transition of emergencies. We uncover the condition that the government and the supplier reach cooperation. The optimal decisions of the government's procurement pricing and the supplier's reserved quantity are derived.The supplier's profit and the government's cost under QFC and non-cooperation are compared. Furthermore, numerical calculation and sensitivity analysis are used to analyze the influence of several exogenous variables on the decision strategies of the government and the supplier and each participant's revenue (cost). Several important managerial implications are attained. The proposed model based on QFC and state transition could not only improve the level of the total reserved quantity of emergency supplies, but also safeguard the supplier's profit and control the government's cost.

Key words: procurement pricing model, quantity flexible contract, state transiti on, Pareto improvement