城市突发事件中基于事故演变的救援需求决策模型及其优化求解

doi:10.12005/orms.2020.0203

运筹与管理 ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 79-88.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0203

城市突发事件中基于事故演变的救援需求决策模型及其优化求解

杨枫^1,2, 叶春明², 种大双²

1.河南中医药大学管理学院,河南郑州 450046;
2.上海理工大学管理学院,上海 200093

收稿日期:2018-11-13 出版日期:2020-08-25
作者简介:杨枫(1978-),男,河南新县人,博士,副教授,研究方向为智能优化与应急管理;叶春明(1964-),男,安徽宣城人,博士,教授,研究方向为工业工程,生产调度;种大双(1982-),男,四川雅安人,博士研究生,研究方向为运营管理,制度管理。
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目资助(18YJCZH216);河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)项目资助(202102310637);河南省教育科学“十三五”规划一般课题资助((2018)-JKGHYB-0129);河南中医药大学人文社会科学类研究生导师能力提升专项(YJSDS-2019-01);河南中医药大学教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2019JX27);河南中医药大学博士科研基金(BSJJ2020-11)

Decision Model of Rescue Demand in Urban Emergency Based on Accident Evolution and Its Optimization Solution

YANG Feng^1,2, YE Chun-ming², CHONG Da-shuang²

1. College of Management, Henan University of Chinese Medicine, Zhengzhou 450046, China;
2. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

Received:2018-11-13 Online:2020-08-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对城市突发事件中待救点对应急救援物资的需求状态随着事故的演变而发生变化的情况,将待救点对应急救援物质的需求设计成马尔可夫决策过程,并提出一种动态的物资调配策略,构建救援物资需求决策模型,然后通过花朵授粉算法进行优化求解。某市突发地震应急物资调配实例证明,本文方法能够给出合理的救援需求满足策略,使得待救点对物资的需求更低,需求变化更加平稳。花朵授粉算法对模型求解的效果相比粒子群算法和萤火虫算法有更快的收敛速度和更优的求解结果。

关键词: 城市突发事件, 救援需求, 事故演变, 马尔可夫决策过程, 花朵授粉算法

Abstract: In view of the demand for emergency relief materials in urban emergencies change along with the evolution of the accident, the demand for emergency rescue material is designed as a Markov decision process, and a dynamic material allocation strategy is proposed to build a decision model for the demand for relief materials, and then the flower pollination algorithm is used for optimizing the model. A case of emergency material allocation in a city proves that the proposed method can give a reasonable rescue demand strategy, which makes the demand of the rescue point lower and the demand change more stable. Compared with particle swarm optimization and firefly algorithm, flower pollination algorithm has faster convergence speed and better solution results.

Key words: urban Emergency, rescue demand, accident evolution, markov decision process, flower pollination algorithm1

中图分类号:

N945

杨枫, 叶春明, 种大双. 城市突发事件中基于事故演变的救援需求决策模型及其优化求解[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(8): 79-88.

YANG Feng, YE Chun-ming, CHONG Da-shuang. Decision Model of Rescue Demand in Urban Emergency Based on Accident Evolution and Its Optimization Solution[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2020, 29(8): 79-88.

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城市突发事件中基于事故演变的救援需求决策模型及其优化求解

Decision Model of Rescue Demand in Urban Emergency Based on Accident Evolution and Its Optimization Solution

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