基于蒙特卡洛模拟的滨海旅游环境承载力影响因素重要性排序研究——以大连滨海景区为例

doi:10.12005/orms.2021.0312

运筹与管理 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 47-52.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0312

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的滨海旅游环境承载力影响因素重要性排序研究——以大连滨海景区为例

朱佳玮¹, 王尔大², 孙文章³

1.东北财经大学国际商学院,辽宁大连 116025;
2.大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连 116024;
3.东北财经大学会计学院,辽宁大连 116025

收稿日期:2018-10-25 出版日期:2021-10-25
作者简介:朱佳玮 (1985-),女,辽宁省大连人,讲师,博士,研究方向:旅游经济及承载力评价;王尔大 (1955-),男,辽宁省辽阳人,教授、博士生导师,博士,研究方向:旅游经济及管理;孙文章 (1989-),男,黑龙江双鸭山人,讲师、硕士生导师,博士,研究方向:资产评估与评价模型。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71640035,72002025);辽宁省教育厅青年科技人才“育苗”项目(LN2019Q69,LN2019Q37);中国科协“高端科技创新智库青年项目”2017(DXB-ZKQN-2017-022);辽宁社会科学规划基金项目(L20BGL026); 东北财经大学2021年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202110173102)

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Rank Indicators on Coastal Park Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity in Dalian

ZHU Jia-wei¹, WANG Er-da², SUN Wen-zhang³

1. International Business College, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian116024,China;
3. School of Accounting, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian116025, China

Received:2018-10-25 Online:2021-10-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 由于层次分析法(AHP)针对指标重要性的测度存在一定的缺陷:其一是主观性对数据收集的干扰;其二是相近指标权重的精确识别容易出现偏差;因此,本文联合引入三角分布函数及蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS),以期对滨海旅游环境承载力所涉评价指标的重要性测度方法进行合理改进。相比之下,研究表明基于蒙特卡洛模拟修正后的层次分析法(MCAHP)可以有效缓解问卷提取评分数据所隐含的主观偏误,最终有效提升评价结论的真实性和可靠性。据此,本文对大连滨海景区环境承载力指标重要性的实证分析结果进行修正,以期得到更为精确与科学的相关结论,同时为大连滨海旅游环境承载力的治理与旅游业的可持续发展提出相应的政策建议。

关键词: 滨海旅游, 环境承载力, 重要性排序, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract: There are two critical problems in ranking of indicators on the applications of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): one is the interference of subjective on data collection, and the other is the accurate recognition of similar weights prone to a deviation. Consequently, this paper applies triangulation distribution function and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to improve the ranking methodology on coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity indicators. In contrast, the Monte Carlo Analytic Hierarchy Process (MCAHP) approach can effectively relieve the subjectivity bias of response on both questionnaires and expert investigations in order to measure the authenticity and reliability of the evaluation results. According to this, it can obtain the empirical analysis results of indicators more accurately in Dalian, and the issues are addressed accordingly associated with costal park carrying capacity management and sustainable development of coastal tourism.

Key words: coastal tourism, environment carrying capacity, weight ranking, Monte Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

F590.1

朱佳玮, 王尔大, 孙文章. 基于蒙特卡洛模拟的滨海旅游环境承载力影响因素重要性排序研究——以大连滨海景区为例[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(10): 47-52.

ZHU Jia-wei, WANG Er-da, SUN Wen-zhang. Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Rank Indicators on Coastal Park Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity in Dalian[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2021, 30(10): 47-52.

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基于蒙特卡洛模拟的滨海旅游环境承载力影响因素重要性排序研究——以大连滨海景区为例

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Rank Indicators on Coastal Park Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity in Dalian

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