关键词: 灰色关联法, 空袭目标, 威胁评估, 组合权重

Abstract: Air target threat evaluation is an important component of air defense command decision-making. It ranks the threat levels of all air targets, distinguishes the priority of the targets, and provides a basis for firepower allocation. At present, in the research on threat assessment of air raid targets, the main approach is to obtain target attribute parameters through sensors. However, due to the complexity of the battlefield environment, the information obtained by sensors often has a certain degree of randomness and uncertainty, which can easily cause certain deviations in the evaluation results. Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately combine the commander's combat experience in the evaluation process. In response to the shortcomings of existing evaluation methods, a threat assessment index system for air raid targets has been constructed.
The threat assessment factors are generally the target state information obtained by sensors and the target attribute information obtained by information fusion. There are many factors that affect the threat assessment of air raid targets, including target type, target speed, target distance, flight altitude, interference ability, maneuvering status, target acceleration, number of targets, route shortcuts, target azimuth, target RCS, air raid style, remaining time, and so on. These attributes are not independent of each other and usually have a certain connection. Through analysis, we can divide the evaluation factors into two categories: Combat capability and attack intent. Combat capability is determined by the attributes of the target itself, while attack intent is mainly determined by the target's flight actions. From this, a system of threat assessment indicators based on target type, target speed, route shortcut, flight altitude, maneuvering status, and arrival time can be obtained. With the help of combination weight theory, the objective information obtained from sensors is weighted differently from the subjective experience of the commander, greatly improving the accuracy of the evaluation process.
The combination weight method refers to the grading of evaluation indicators when evaluating a certain event, and the weight allocation of evaluation indicators at all levels must be mutually considered. Therefore, it is necessary to connect subjective and objective weights to form a comprehensive weight. In the process of threat assessment, due to the uncertainty of the information obtained by sensors, we adopt the method of combining weights to reduce errors, and assign differential weights between the subjective weights of decision-makers and the objective weights obtained by sensors. In order to better reflect the operational experience of combat commanders and eliminate any deviations in their experience as much as possible, the entropy weight method is used to obtain the final subjective weight value. The objective weight of indicators can be calculated using the entropy method for the objective information obtained by sensors. The greater difference in indicator data,the more significant role of entropy value, and the corresponding weight value.
On the basis of obtaining subjective and objective weights, an improved grey correlation method is used to establish an air raid target threat assessment model. Through case analysis, it is verified that this method can effectively avoid the problem of result deviation caused by only using objective information for assessment. The assessment results are accurate and can better adapt to the requirements of modern air defense operations. It has certain reference value for commanders' scientific decision-making.

Key words: grey incidence method, aerial targets, threat evaluation, combined weight