关键词: 生态环境安全评价, 云模型, 证据推理, 组合权重, PSR模型

Abstract: This paper proposes a comprehensive ecological environmental security evaluation model based on cloud model and evidence reasoning. Firstly, the ecological environmental security evaluation index system is constructed and divided into grade intervals. The actual value of each index is transformed into the relevance degree of ecological environmental security level through cloud model. Secondly, the index weight is determined dynamically and statically by using the combination of evidence reasoning and entropy method. After that, we use evidence reasoning to calculate the basic probability assignment function of each index, and then the evidence fusion algorithm to synthesize the ecological security comprehensive evaluation probability distribution. Finally, the evaluation result is obtained according to the ' maximum correlation criterion' . This paper takes Hunan province as an example. The evaluation results of the model in this paper are consistent with the evaluation grade results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, but the uncertainty of the evaluation results is lower than that of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which verifies the rationality, feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: ecological environmental security evaluation, cloud model, evidential reasoning, combination weight, PSR model