关键词: 企业生命周期, 剩余收益模型, LCRIM模型, 权益估值

Abstract: As an important enterprise valuation tool, the residual model has been widely recognized by the financial theoretical and practice circles. The classic Ohlson series residual model models are generally used in the both theoretical and practical circle of finance and financial accounting. On this basis, many follow-up researchers conduct extended research on the Ohlson series residual income model from various perspectives. However, current research on the residual income model is based on the assumption of continuous operation of the enterprise and the perpetual profit, which makes the research face the obstacle of the continuous operation assumption; And these studies mean that the profit level of the enterprise is constant or the abnormal return is constant. These assumptions are contrary to the enterprise life cycle theory. Based on the general residual income model and the theory of enterprise life cycle, this article states that enterprise has different levels of income at different stages of their life cycle. When the enterprise is in the growth stage, the level of income continues to rise; When a company reaches its maturity stage, its income level is relatively stable, which is manifested as fluctuating within the industry average income range; When a company enters a recession stage, its income level will continue to decline. We construct a Life Cycle Residual Income Model (LCRIM) in theory, which is more in line with the company's actual situation. Furthermore, numerical tests are conducted on the constructed LCRIM to verify the effectiveness of the model.
On the basis of the above expanded research on the general residual income model, this paper also proposes a new assumption about the return on equity during the maturity period of the enterprise and expands the research on the time point for maximizing the company's value. According to the initial design of the LCRIM model, it is assumed that the net profit of the enterprise remains unchanged in the mature stage, but as the net asset increases gradually, the return on equity in the mature stage decreases yearly, which is not reasonable. Therefore, this paper proposes a new assumption that the return on equity of the enterprise remains unchanged during the mature stage, and further derives an improved residual income model. In addition, due to the fact that the value of a company will continue to decline over time when it reaches a recession stage the derivative of the improved model can further determine the time point for maximizing the company's value, which is the optimal operating time.
In order to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed model, this paper finally analyzes the impact of different factors on enterprise value through numerical experiments. By changing the length of time and the growth and decline rates of different life cycles in which the enterprise is located, it can be found that, if ceteris paribus, the equity value of the enterprise is directly proportional to the growth period, growth rate during the period, and maturity stage of the enterprise, and vice versa, inversely proportional to the decline rate during the decline stage of the enterprise.
On the one hand, this study considers the situation of enterprise's non-continuous operation, innovates the theory of residual income model. On the other hand, it also introduces the theory of enterprise life cycle to consider the different profitability of enterprises at different stages, improving the practicality of the model; In addition, the paper constructs the LCRIM can directly calculate the maximum value of the enterprise and its optimal operating time, providing a basis for scientific decision-making and planning for the enterprise. Therefore, the newly constructed residual income model based on the enterprise life cycle in this paper has good theoretical and practical value, and can serve as an effective valuation model and decision-making basis for enterprise equity value. At the same time, this study is not only the supplements of existing methods for evaluating the value of corporate equity, but also the supplements of research literature on corporate investment decision-making.

Key words: enterprise life cycle, residual income model, LCRIM model, equity valuation