关键词: 决策者期望, 合作博弈, 虚拟孵化生态系统, 最优利益分配

Abstract: With the rapid development of “Internet+”, the incubation function of science and technology business incubators in China has gradually formed a whole process and multi-level virtual incubation ecosystem supported by multiple forces and promoted by multiple mechanisms. In these systems, through cooperation with incubated enterprises, governments, scientific research institutions, venture capital institutions and other groups, the incubator integrates the resources of each group and turns them into professional science and technology entrepreneurial resources. However, when it comes to distributing the benefits obtained after the incubation project, not all the groups involved in the incubation are able to distribute the desired benefits. In fact, the benefits accruing to participants are highly differentiated. In addition, existing studies regard groups in the ecosystem as homogenous individuals who passively accept benefit arrangements, which find it difficult to explain the phenomenon of group performance differences. In this context, in order to make the benefit distribution of incubation projects more equitable, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to explore the group optimal benefit distribution model of virtual incubation ecosystem based on the expectation of group decision makers.
Although the current studies have pointed out that the groups (participants) in the incubator ecosystem have the characteristics of centralized decision-making, they have ignored the limited rationality of decision makers, and have not involved the cooperation strategies of participants in the incubator ecosystem. They mainly focus on the physical incubation ecosystem, while the related research on the virtual incubation ecosystem is less and only stays at the macro level. In view of this, the relevant concepts are first defined according to the research theme. Secondly, based on the population characteristics of the virtual incubation ecosystem, the model hypothesis is proposed. Thirdly, based on the model hypothesis, the optimal benefit distribution models under optimistic expectation and pessimistic expectation are constructed respectively. Finally, from the perspective of stimulating the innovation of virtual incubation platform, the sensitivity of group optimal benefit distribution to optimistic expectation and pessimistic expectation is analyzed through Hongtai intelligent manufacturing case, so as to provide theoretical and practical decision reference for solving this scientific problem.
The results show that: First, under the optimistic (pessimistic) expectation of a certain group, the optimal benefit distribution is the linear increasing function of the total benefit of the incubation project, and the linear decreasing function of the sum of the optimistic (pessimistic) expected value of all members of the alliance. Second, the minimum nucleolus of the game is only related to the optimistic (pessimistic) expected performance feedback of all alliances, but not to the average optimistic (pessimistic) expected performance feedback of all alliances. Finally, the optimal benefit distribution of all groups is the inverse proportional function of the number of groups and the linear increase function of their optimistic expected value. Compared with pessimistic expectation, if the group's willingness to join is considered, then the optimal allocation ratio of group optimism meets certain conditions (see theorem for details). The case analysis shows that under optimistic expectation performance feedback, the optimal benefit distribution of incubators, venture capital institutions, universities or scientific research institutions and intermediary institutions all presents a linear growth trend with the increase of optimistic expectation performance feedback. In the case of the same marginal contribution, the optimal profit distribution of the group is successively incubator, university or scientific research institution, venture capital institution and intermediary institution from the largest to the smallest. The case analysis shows that in the case of pessimistic expected performance feedback, the optimal benefit distribution of incubators, venture capital institutions, universities or scientific research institutions and intermediary institutions all presents a linear growth trend with the increase of optimistic expected performance feedback.

Key words: decision maker expectation, cooperative game, virtual incubation ecosystem, optimal distribution of benefits