关键词: 恐怖组织, 极端暴力袭击行为决策, 最小作用量原理, 建模仿真

Abstract: Terrorist attacks pose a serious threat to social stability and people's lives and property. By launching extreme violent attacks, terrorist organizations directly convey information about the strategic objectives and ideology of the organization to their members and potential supporters through actions, which stimulates the extreme level of their members' behavior and promotes the extreme level of their potential supporters' thoughts. The attack tactics of terrorist organizations reflect the goals of terrorist organizations, show the strength of terrorist organizations, and reflect the degree of violent extremism of terrorist organizations, which plays an important role in strengthening the organizational identity of terrorist organizations and promoting the evolution of the extremist process of their members. Therefore, studying the decision-making mechanism of terrorist organization's attack behavior is helpful for deeply understanding the problem of behavior extremism and mobilization at the organizational level, and is of great significance for realizing intelligent calculation, prediction and early warning of terrorist attacks and the formulation of anti-terrorist measures.
Aiming at the problem that the existing research can't fully understand the common mechanism of extreme behavior decision-making of terrorist organizations, firstly, based on the cost-benefit theory of social economics and the data analysis of “Global Terrorism Database” (GTD), the decision-making characteristics of extreme violent attacks of terrorist organizations are obtained.
This article selects the attack type, weapon information and attack target type data of “Taliban”, “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant”, “Somali Al-Shabaab” and “Boko Haram” from the GTD for analysis. The analysis finds that there is an extreme phenomenon of terrorist attacks. The decision-making process of terrorist organization's attack activities is to minimize the cost of the activity and maximize the benefit of the attack, and follow the decision-making mechanism of “the most labor-saving and most effective”. Secondly, we consider the decision-making movement of terrorist organization's attack activities as a continuous process of the slider rising from the bottom of the slope. A physical model of the terrorist organization's attack activities is established. Then, the virtual mechanics system of the terrorist organization's attack process is constructed, which includes three types of forces: virtual endogenous driving force, virtual interaction force and virtual attack resistance. In the virtual mechanics system, the action amount that fuses the cost and benefit of the attack activity is determined, and the minimum action amount decision-making model aiming at the optimal comprehensive performance is proposed. Finally, the GTD data is used to calculate the attack speed of terrorist organizations according to the attack intensity judgment model. Through Wilcoxon rank sum test and comprehensive performance index analysis, the minimum and actual effects of the decision-making process of two terrorist organizations are calculated and tested. The experimental results verify the effectiveness of the model. Through this model, the simulation experiment of terrorist organization decision-making process under constrained resistance parameters is carried out, and the conclusions with practical guiding significance are obtained.
By analyzing the theoretical least action and actual action of Taliban and ISIL, no significant difference is observed between the theoretical least action and actual action of Taliban and ISIL. These results demonstrate that the decision-making mechanism of terrorist organizations follows the principle of least action. Based on the decision-making model of minimum action of terrorist attacks, the key factors affecting the decision-making of terrorist attacks are the degree of organizational extremism, the government's efforts to combat terrorism and the impact of the international terrorism situation. In the process of anti-terrorism decision-making: on the one hand, we need to take effective anti-terrorism measures to reduce the endogenous driving force of terrorist organizations; on the one hand, it is necessary to always adhere to the strike strategy, push up the attack cost of terrorist organizations and increase the restraint resistance of terrorist organizations. Moreover, it is necessary to scientifically optimize the implementation of the strike strategy, grasp the window of the strategic risk period and turning period of terrorist organizations, and give full play to the effect of the strike strategy. At the same time, the attack strategy helps to clarify the illegal status of terrorist organizations, create an environment and atmosphere to actively curb the spread of extremism in society, strengthen people's legal awareness and enhance people's sense of security. In addition, we must be alert to the sudden change of organizational behavior caused by the disturbance of international terrorism. It is necessary to effectively monitor and dynamically analyze the behavior characteristics of terrorist organizations, and timely introduce preventive and response measures for the new trends and trends of terrorists to avoid loopholes.

Key words: terrorist organizations, decision-making mechanism of terrorist organizations, principle of least action, modeling and simulation