运筹与管理 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 169-175.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2025.0223

• 应用研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国制造业产业链现代化水平测度、区域差异及动态演进

肖远飞, 周红叶, 韩先锋   

  1. 昆明理工大学 管理与经济学院,云南 昆明 650093
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-01 出版日期:2025-07-25 发布日期:2025-11-04
  • 通讯作者: 韩先锋(1984-),男,陕西商洛人,博士,校聘教授,研究方向:创新与经济增长。Email: hanxianfeng2008@163.com。
  • 作者简介:肖远飞(1976-),男,湖南邵阳人,博士,教授,研究方向:开放经济与区域产业发展。
  • 基金资助:
    云南省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(ZD202206);昆明理工大学新型智库建设项目(XXZK2023006);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA790026)

Measurement, Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Modernization Level of China's Manufacturing Industry Chain

XIAO Yuanfei, ZHOU Hongye, HAN Xianfeng   

  1. Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
  • Received:2023-08-01 Online:2025-07-25 Published:2025-11-04

摘要: 制造业产业链现代化是建设现代化产业体系的着力点,更加体现“现代化”时代内涵的测度分析,对于“摸清家底”和“精准施策”显得十分重要。本文基于新发展理念思想重新构建制造业产业链现代化水平测度指标,运用中国30个省份2008—2020年数据,结合TOPSIS熵权法、Dagum基尼系数的分解、核密度估计和空间面板模型,对中国制造业产业链现代化水平的基本特征、区域差异、动态演进及收敛特征进行了测度分析。研究发现:(1)中国制造业产业链现代化水平总体呈上升趋势,并呈现“东高西低”的基本特征;(2)除东部与中部区域间差异下降,其他区域间差异均呈上升趋势;(3)除西部地区以外,中国制造业产业链现代化水平的动态演进绝对差异增大;(4)中国制造业产业链现代化水平存在绝对收敛和条件收敛,且不同地区收敛速度存在差异。本研究构建了制造业产业链现代化水平新的测度指标,深刻揭示其时空演变趋势、构成来源及空间分化特征,为有效提升制造业产业链现代化水平提供决策依据。

关键词: 产业链现代化, 动态分布, 区域差异, 空间收敛

Abstract: Modernization of the manufacturing industry chain is a key link in the construction of a modernized industrial system and an important focus point for promoting the high-quality development of China's economy, but there is a lack of understanding of the level of modernization of the manufacturing industry chain at present. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to construct a system of indicators reflecting the scientific connotation of the modernization level of China's manufacturing industry chain, measure its basic characteristics, explore the spatial variability and sources, and analyze its dynamic distribution and evolution rule, so as to comprehensively understand the factual characteristics of the modernization level of China's manufacturing industry chain, and put forward effective countermeasures to enhance it.
Based on the idea of a new development philosophy, this paper reconstructs the index system for measuring the modernization level of manufacturing industry chain. Firstly, the overall index and sub-dimension index of the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain are obtained by using the TOPSIS entropy weight method to measure and analyze its basic characteristics. Secondly, the decomposition of Dagum's Gini coefficient is used to measure the overall differences in the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain, intra-regional differences, inter-regional differences, and differences in the sources and contributions. At the same time, the overall shape of the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain and the dynamic evolution trend in different periods are measured using kernel density estimation. Finally, a spatial panel model is used to explore the convergence characteristics of the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain.
The results show that the modernization level of China's manufacturing industry chain is generally on the rise, but the development level of different regions varies greatly, presenting the basic characteristics of being “high in the east and low in the west”. Intra-regional differences in the country as a whole, in the eastern region, in the central region, and in the western region are all on the rise, with the largest intra-regional differences in the eastern region over time, the smallest but fastest-rising intra-regional differences in the central region, and the smallest intra-gional differences in the western region from 2018 onwards. Inter-regional differences between the eastern region and the western region, and between the central region and the western region, are widening year by year, while the inter-regional differences between the eastern region and the central region are in a declining trend. Inter-egional differences are the main source of overall differences in the modernization level of China's manufacturing industry chain. The absolute difference in the dynamic evolution of the level of modernization of the manufacturing industry chain in the eastern and central regions shows an upward trend, while the absolute difference in the dynamic evolution of the level of modernization of the manufacturing industry chain in the western region shows a downward trend. The modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain has convergence characteristics, and in terms of absolute β-convergence, the eastern region has the fastest rate of convergence, but the central region has the slowest rate of convergence. In terms of conditional β-convergence, the western region has the fastest rate of convergence but the eastern region has the slowest rate of convergence.
The limitation of this paper may lie in the fact that it is slightly rough to study the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain based on provincial data, and the development rule of the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain can be further explored in the future from the level of prefectural and municipal level as well as the level of industry.

Key words: modernization of industry chains, dynamics distribution, regional differences, spatial convergence

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