关键词: 货币政策不确定性, 企业经营风险, 债务融资, 信贷配置

Abstract: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, the global economic environment is facing a high degree of uncertainty, and the stable operation of enterprises has been broken. In order to cope with the impact of some anti-globalization behaviors and the “black swan” event of the global epidemic of the novel coronavirus on the economy, various countries and regions have strengthened government intervention and introduced relevant economic policies to stabilize the economic operation. Since the financial tsunami, China has introduced a series of new policies and measures to promote economic growth, such as the “4 trillion yuan” stimulus plan, tax and fee reduction, and optimize the business environment. These measures have become key factors for the stable growth of China's economy, and are also important reasons why China has achieved gratifying development results despite the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic. However, while frequently intervening and stimulating the economy, the government seems to be increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, especially the uncertainty of monetary policy. For example, affected by the epidemic in 2020, Ren Shuming et al. (2021) pointed out that in order to support enterprises to resume work and production, by the end of April 2020, the central bank had adjusted monetary policy five times. In August, The State Council adjusted the monetary policy twice in a week, and in April 2022, the executive meeting of The State Council adjusted the monetary policy twice in a week, leading to unpredictable monetary policies and uncertainties in business operations. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to study the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on business risk and clarify the mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty on business risk under the background of rising monetary policy uncertainty and our country being in the critical stage of economic development transition.
The economic behavior of enterprises will be affected by macroeconomic policies, especially the monetary policy has a more direct and obvious effect on the business behavior of enterprises. However, most current studies mainly focus on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprises, or pay attention to how monetary policy uncertainty affects a specific enterprise behavior. Few literatures discuss the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the overall business situation of enterprises, which is also the theoretical significance of this paper's study on the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on business risk. It has enriched the academic research on monetary policy uncertainty at the micro level, broken through the limitation of risks brought by improper business behaviors of enterprises, and combined the uncertainty of monetary policy with micro enterprises, so as to obtain solutions for the study of business risk from a new perspective. At the same time, China is in the critical period of economic transformation and upgrading. Although the changes in monetary policies and other economic policies are highly subjective and controllable for the government, the information asymmetry in the transmission process will lead to the unpredictability of monetary policies for enterprises. Its frequent changes will not only affect the behaviors of enterprises but also cause the low allocation of resources. Against the above background, the study of the impact of the uncertainty of monetary policy on enterprises in this paper can produce more realistic enlightenment for the adjustment of the real economic policy and how enterprises can better cope with the uncertainty and risk in the business process, which is more conducive to China's economic transformation and upgrading.
This paper selects the financial data of China's A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020 as research samples to analyze the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the empirical risks of enterprises, and discusses the role of financing and credit and other moderating effects in the process of monetary policy uncertainty affecting business risks. The influence of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises of different natures, sizes and industries is further analyzed. In order to maintain the robustness of the empirical results, endogeneity test and robustness test are also conducted in this paper.
It is found that the decrease of monetary policy uncertainty significantly reduces the business risk of enterprises, and this effect gradually increases after the implementation of loose monetary policy. The test of the influence mechanism shows that “financing effect” and “credit effect” are important channels to reduce the operating risks of enterprises. The debt financing and credit allocation of enterprises increase, and the financial situation of enterprises improves, thus alleviating the operating difficulties of enterprises. From the perspective of heterogeneity, monetary policy uncertainty has a stronger effect on the operational risks of private and foreign-funded enterprises, small-scale enterprises and manufacturing enterprises. Finally, in order to ensure the robustness of the research conclusions. In this paper, by replacing the explained variables, changing the sample size and changing the regression method, the robustness test is carried out, and the endogeneity test is carried out by the triple difference model, etc., all of which confirm that the uncertainty of monetary policy will increase the business risk of enterprises. Therefore, this paper enriches the research on the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on microeconomic entities.

Key words: monetary policy uncertainty, business risk, debt financing, credit allocation