关键词: 重大突发疫情, 情绪演化模型, 信息发布策略, 等级比较法

Abstract: After the outbreak of major epidemic, people in different areas have different risk perceptions in different periods. So public sentiments are various and their change laws have different characteristics. The existing studies usually describe the process of public sentiment evolution by data mining. There is no explicit mathematical model to depict the law of public sentiment evolution at present. Therefore, the governments are unlikely to develop effectiveinformation releasestrategies for guiding public sentiment. In view of this problem, we investigate people’s sentiment in different areas with various risks under the COVID-19. We find that people are very much concerned with COVID-19 and the public main sentiment is fear. Moreover, we get the fear levels of people in different areas in different periods using graded paired comparison method. The public fear evolution models in different risk areas are built, and we get the evolution process of COVID-19 with crisis life cycle theory. Afterwards, we get the characteristics and differences of people’s fear change. Finally, some important countermeasures for releasing information are proposed. The findings can provide theoretical support for prevention and control measures, accurately guide public rational behavior and avoid the extreme social emotion for major epidemic, as well as form a new research perspective for emotional management under major epidemic.

Key words: major epidemic, sentiment evolution model, information release strategies, graded paired comparison