关键词: 供应商选择, 订单分配, 模糊两阶段规划, 在险价值, 期望值

Abstract: An integrated fuzzy two-stage multi-period optimization model based on risk-mean analysis is constructed for the supplier selection and order allocation (SSOA) problem with different supply contracts in an uncertain environment. Unlike the traditional research on this issue that the interaction between the SS and OA decisions has not been adequately considered, in this model, evaluation objectives for the SS at the first stage depend on the actual OA decisions made later in the second stage. Considering the uncertainty of future demands and operating costs, two decision criteria, value at risk (VaR) and expected value (EV), are introduced to evaluate the performance of the SS decision. Solution approaches to the formulated model are designed, in which the VaR is accurately assessed, whereas the EV is approximated within a determined margin of error.

Key words: supplier selection, order allocation, fuzzy two-stage programming, value at risk, expected value