关键词: 废弃物资源化利用, 产业发展能力预测, PEST模型与波特钻石模型, DWGM(1,N)

Abstract: The rapid development of China’s economy and the increasing people’s material needs have intensified the development and utilization of natural resources, resulting in the production of more products and waste after consumption. The utilization of waste resources is the main way to solve the over-exploitation of primary resources and reduce the environmental harm caused by waste treatment, and it is also an important basis for the realization of the concept of sustainable development. Depicting the development trend of related industries is the premise of defining the scale of waste resource utilization. The environmental pollution caused by direct waste treatment is effectively reduced by the rapid development of China’s Waste Resource Utilization (WRU) industry. Therefore, it is of great value to scientifically predict its development ability to improve China’s environmental quality and promote the deep integration of related industries.
This paper constructs a multivariable grey model DWGM(1,N) with adaptive characteristics, which solves the mechanism defects, parameter defects and structure defects of the traditional GM(1,N) and realizes the complete compatibility with the traditional GM(1,N) and GM(1,1) models. Firstly, based on the PEST model and the diamond model, a four-dimensional index system of industrial development ability of WRU is constructed, which is based on the demand of production resources, economic development level, technological innovation and ontology-related factors. After that, based on the grey relational model, the index is measured and screened, and the correlation threshold is set to 0.9. Then, the filtered indicators are brought into DWGM(1,N) for modeling. In order to verify the performance of the new model, this paper compares the modeling results of the new model with GM(1,N) and GM(1,1) models. The results show that the average relative simulation error of DWGM(1,N) is 0.2683%, which is much better than that of the traditional GM(1,N) and GM(1,1) models (17.8382% and 6.7515% respectively). The performance of DWGM(1,N) model is improved by about 25.2 times and 66.5 times respectively compared with that of GM(1,1) and GM(1,N).
The forecast results show that the development capacity of WRU industry will show a gradual upward trend in the next few years, and it is predicted that the development capacity of this industry will be 1.5 times that of 2013 by 2025, indicating that this industry will have a good development in the future, which is in line with the concept of green development in China in recent years. Therefore, based on the research results, this paper puts forward the following relevant suggestions from the perspectives of technological innovation and economic development level, with a view to promoting the further improvement of the development capacity of this industry. It mainly includes: promoting the technological innovation of waste resource production, and enhancing the promotion of enterprise technological innovation to waste utilization. And the development concepts of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing need to be thoroughly implemented, a reasonable scientific orientation set, and the integration and development of the eastern and western regions deepened.

Key words: waste resource utilization, prediction of industrial development capability, PEST model and Porter Diamond model, DWGM(1,N)