关键词: 农村, 能源结构升级, 社交结构, 复杂网络, 多Agent仿真, 行为涌现

Abstract: The transition of rural energy structure towards “decarbonization” is an essential component in achieving the goal of “dual carbon”. Since the era of economic reform and opening up, rural cohabitation culture has undergone significant changes, resulting in two distinct social structures: “traditional rural” and “atomized rural”. These social structures have been internalized to form social norms, which subsequently influence the participation of rural households in the upgrading of energy structure. Currently, there is limited research on the impact of social structures on the upgrading of rural energy structure.
This study, from the perspective of complex system dynamics, explores the influence of rural households’ social structures on the selection of decarbonization behaviors. Specifically, it introduces scale-free and small-world networks to formalize the social network structures of traditional and atomized rural areas, and constructs corresponding behavioral strategies of “imitation” and “self-reflection” for households. By utilizing interactive Markov chains, a dynamic equation for the upgrading of rural energy structure is established. Furthermore, the multi-agent technology is employed to simulate household behavioral choices, revealing the emergent characteristics of rural household behaviors: (1)In the traditional rural social structure, the process of energy structure upgrading is affected by factors such as initial support rates, village size, and opinion leaders, rather than the cumulative net income of an individual household. When the initial support rate reaches 45% and there are more than two opinion leaders, rural households will emerge in support of decarbonization energy. (2)In atomized rural social structure, support for energy structure upgrading will emerge when the cumulative net income of individual households is greater than 0.
This study deeply investigates the influence of social structures as the logical foundation for household behavioral choices on the upgrading of rural energy structure. The following recommendations are put forth: (1)In traditional rural areas, it is advised to consider implementing a graduated subsidy system based on the size of the village, which would influence individuals´ income composition and enhance the level of endorsement among farmers. In atomized rural areas, farmers tend to act rationally, and an energy structure modernization project that brings mutual benefits can foster a higher level of endorsement among farmers. (2)In traditional rural areas, a low initial level of endorsement would impede the convergence of collective behavior towards endorsing the energy structure upgrade. It is crucial to promote the dissemination of knowledge and technology regarding renewable energy, advocate and facilitate sustainable rural development models, establish a solid foundation among the masses, and implement measures to enhance the initial level of endorsement. (3)Effectively leveraging the role of influential individuals. In traditional rural areas, social networks grounded in kinship and geographical connections are deeply ingrained. Augmenting the number of influential individuals who support the energy structure upgrade will expedite the convergence of regional farmers toward endorsing behavior.
The research findings clearly identify the incentivizing factors and guiding factors for improving the level of cooperation among households, providing a theoretical basis for optimizing incentive policies for rural energy structure and mobilizing the participation of individuals in social networks. Moreover, this research is of great significance in enhancing the level of rural governance.

Key words: rural, energy structure upgrading, social structure, complex networks, multi-agent simulation, emergence of behavior