关键词: 工程索赔, FIDIC合同, 博弈模型, 贝叶斯法则

Abstract: Claim is the common focus to each participant of the construction engineering and the claim decisions affect the interests of the owner and the contractor directly. As Chinese contractor taking part in more and more international construction projects, FIDIC contract conditions are arousing more attention than before, the claim clauses of which get wide recognition. This research locates characteristics of construction claims through the courses and classifications of FIDIC contract in order to establish the game model to analyze the claim strategy and decision path. Firstly, the research analyzes the matching degree between game theory, Bayes Rule and claim decision, then, constructs the basic game model of construction claim. Secondly, based on the four scenarios of construction claim, the research conducts respectively the game model of limited rounds with complete information, the game model under the influence of time value, the game model of limited rounds with incomplete information and the game model under not completely opposite. By solving the Nash equilibrium of the four game models, the research simulates the decision-making process to seek the optimal strategy of engineering participants. Participants should truthfully claim under complete information game. Under the incomplete information game, the contractor will adopt strategy to raise the claim amount, and the owner should refuse it to negotiate. In any case, all participants should take reasonable concessions to compromise the claim amount over negotiation.

Key words: construction claims, FIDIC contract, game modeling, bayes rule