大型客机协同研制工艺技术风险的正态云模型评估

doi:10.12005/orms.2018.0243

运筹与管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (10): 146-153.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0243

大型客机协同研制工艺技术风险的正态云模型评估

王翯华¹, 朱建军², 杨萍²

1.金陵科技学院商学院,江苏南京,211169;
2.南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京,211106

收稿日期:2017-09-27 出版日期:2018-10-25
作者简介:王翯华(1977-),女,辽宁灯塔人,讲师,博士,主要研究方向为供应链风险、决策理论与方法. 朱建军(1976-),男,江苏丹阳人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为群决策理论与方法、灰色系统理论。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71502073);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(14YJC630120);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD049);金陵科技学院科研启动基金项目(jit-b-201419);江苏高校“青蓝工程”资助

Risk Evaluation Method Based on Normal Cloud Model with Application forLarge Aircraft Cooperative Development

WANG He-hua¹,ZHU Jian-jun²,YANG Ping²

1.Business School,Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211169, China;
2.College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106, China

Received:2017-09-27 Online:2018-10-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究不确定情景下大型客机协同研制正态云模型风险评估方法及应用问题。建立了正态云模型的偏差熵测度,提出了面向云模型偏差熵的指标权重确定模型,构建了面向多数据类型的正态云模型风险评估方法。建立了涵盖工艺标准、工艺方案等五个指标的大型客机协同研制供应商工艺技术风险评估指标体系,并基于正态云模型评估方法进行了实际应用。

关键词: 正态云模型, 云偏差熵, 协同研制, 风险评估

Abstract: A new risk evaluation method based on normal cloud is proposed for risk evaluation of large aircraft cooperative development process engineering. Firstly, the definition and properties of normal cloud deviation entropy are researched. Secondly, the model based on cloud deviation entropy is established to calculate the indicators weight. Thirdly, the evaluation method of normal cloud model for multiple kinds of data is proposed. In addition, the technological risk assessment index system of large aircraft, which includes five indicators including process standard and process plan, has been established. Finally, the risk is evaluated based on the suggested method.

Key words: normal cloud model, normal cloud deviation entropy, cooperative development, risk evaluation

中图分类号:

C934

王翯华, 朱建军, 杨萍. 大型客机协同研制工艺技术风险的正态云模型评估[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(10): 146-153.

WANG He-hua,ZHU Jian-jun,YANG Ping. Risk Evaluation Method Based on Normal Cloud Model with Application forLarge Aircraft Cooperative Development[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2018, 27(10): 146-153.

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大型客机协同研制工艺技术风险的正态云模型评估

Risk Evaluation Method Based on Normal Cloud Model with Application forLarge Aircraft Cooperative Development

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