考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法

doi:10.12005/orms.2015.0136

运筹与管理 ›› 2015, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 172-177.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0136

考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法

张川, 杨文雯, 于超

东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳 110819

收稿日期:2013-11-07 出版日期:2015-08-12
作者简介:张川(1969-),男,辽宁本溪人,博士,副教授,研究方向:运筹与管理。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271051);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地专项项目(ZJ2014020)

Supply Risk Evaluation Method Considering Risk Propagation

ZHANG Chuan, YANG Wen-wen, YU Chao

School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China

Received:2013-11-07 Online:2015-08-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的供应风险评估方法。该方法中,通过识别引起供应链中各节点企业供应风险的关键风险因素,构建一个贝叶斯网络,并依据贝叶斯公式计算考虑风险传导情形下供应风险的发生概率,在此基础上,对考虑风险传导的供应风险进行评估。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 风险评估, 供应风险, 贝叶斯网络, 风险传导

Abstract: In this paper, a method for supply risk evaluation based on Bayesian network is proposed to solve the supply risk evaluation problem considering the risk propagation. In this method, firstly, a Bayesian network is constructed via identifying key risk factors which may cause the supply risk of each node enterprise. According to Bayes formula, the probability of supply risk considering the risk propagation is calculated. On this basis, supply risk is evaluated considering the risk propagation. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: risk evaluation, supply risk, Bayesian network, risk propagation

中图分类号:

C394

张川, 杨文雯, 于超. 考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法[J]. 运筹与管理, 2015, 24(4): 172-177.

ZHANG Chuan, YANG Wen-wen, YU Chao. Supply Risk Evaluation Method Considering Risk Propagation[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2015, 24(4): 172-177.

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考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法

Supply Risk Evaluation Method Considering Risk Propagation

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