关键词: 灰色系统理论, 灰色的动态预测, 泛函分析因子, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract: In view of the problem of external shock response of the system, we establish a grey prediction model including functional analysis factors in combination with functional theory and grey system theory. And a grey forecasting model of Bayesian network inference is also established for shock response and system control by applying Bayesian networks inference technique. These modelcan be used to analyze the the dynamic inference problem of the functional analysis factors of shock response evolution. On the basis of the changes of functional analysis factors, we can predict and revise the system development trend. In 2013,the new policy affected the real estate economy, so the development trend of the real estate economy is has changed. Based on the present session information of real estate economy, the historical trend has been revised using the grey forecasting model of Bayesian network inference. The deviation between the predicted results and the actual results is only 3.81 percent, which is more accurate than the prediction results of other models. The established models are applied to predicting the development of the real estate economy by recent external impulse response emphasis on the development and utilization of recent data.

Key words: grey system theory, grey dynamic prediction, functional analysis factor, bayesian networks