Urban Traffic Network Cascading Failure Evaluation Model Based on Markov Renewal Process

doi:10.12005/orms.2018.0190

Abstract

Abstract: According to the relationship between the state of the link and its function, a "failure-non failure" state representation for the link is given. Furthermore, the definition and recognition method of cascading failure state of road traffic network is proposed according to the connection between the links in the network. Using the renewal and Markov chain theory, the probability distribution of the ‘cascading failure-non cascading failure’ state duration time is analyzed. The method for estimating the unknown parameters and testing the hypothetical distribution is given, and the cascading failure evaluation model of traffic network based on the number of failures and the transfer probability is also proposed. Taking an actual road network as an example, the model is calibrated, the calibrated model evaluation results are compared with the actual observation results, and the two results are very close, which indicates that the model is of high accuracy.

Key words: traffic network, cascading failure, Markov process, transition probability

摘要： 根据路段单元状态与其功能之间的关系,给出了路段单元状态的‘失效—非失效’二态表示方法,进一步根据网络中路段单元之间的连接关系,提出了道路交通网络‘级联失效’态的定义及识别方法;利用更新理论及Markov链相关理论,分析了道路交通网络级联失效态—非级联失效态持续时间随机变化的概率分布规律,给出了对假想分布的未知参数进行估计及对假想分布进行假设检验的方法,并提出了以失效次数及转移概率为主要评价参数的交通网络级联失效评价模型。以一个实际路网为例,对模型进行了标定,将标定好的模型评价结果与实际观察结果进行了比对,结果显示模型具有较好的实用性。

关键词: 交通网络, 级联失效, Markov过程, 转移概率

CLC Number:

U491.13

YUAN Peng-cheng, LIN Xu-xun. Urban Traffic Network Cascading Failure Evaluation Model Based on Markov Renewal Process[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2018, 27(8): 116-126.

袁鹏程,林徐勋. 基于Markov更新过程的城市交通网络级联失效评价模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(8): 116-126.

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