Abstract: As the bridge and link connected with other countries and regions, international business and economics has a very important position in international economic relations. Selecting representative indicators of international business and economics and economic growth, then choosing the indexes’ average growth of nearly 12 years as a starting point, this paper calculates and classifies foreign trade relative growth index(TGI) and foreign capital relative growth index(CGI) in Northest China through relative growth index model. The results show that the relative growing types of foreign trade and foreign capital in Northest China are entirely different. Further more, a comparative analysis between foreign trade growth and economic growth over the years indicates that there is high synchronism between them and foreign trade growth always acts as barometer. However, the same analysis between foreign capital growth and economic growth indicates that there is no obvious law and foreign capital growth has uncertainties and contingencies. Finally, generalized impulse response analysis shows that foreign trade and foreign capital both have significant effects on economic growth, but the extents are not the same. Variance decomposition of economic growth reflects contribution of each index. This article provides a new perspective for the study on the relationship among foreign trade, foreign capital and economic growth.

Key words: Northeast China, foreign trade and foreign capital, economic growth, relative growth index, generalized impulse response

摘要： 作为连接其他国家和地区的桥梁和纽带,对外经贸在国际经济关系中有着十分重要的地位。本研究选取对外经贸与经济增长代表性指标,以各指标平均增长率为切入点,通过构建相对增长指数模型,测算东北三省的外贸相对增长指数(TGI)和外资相对增长指数(CGI)并进行分类,结果显示三省外贸、外资增长类型截然不同。进一步,将历年外贸、外资增速与经济增速进行对比分析发现,外贸增速与经济增速具高度同步性,且始终扮演经济晴雨表的角色,外资增速则更具不确定性和偶然性。最后,广义脉冲响应分析显示外贸外资冲击经济增长均产生显著效应,但响应程度不尽相同,各指标贡献度通过方差分解呈现。本文为外贸外资与经济增长关系研究提供了新的视角。

关键词: 东北三省, 外贸外资, 经济增长, 相对增长指数, 广义脉冲