Abstract: Based on the concept of manufacturing industry upgrade, the paper constructs a three-dimensional evaluation indicator system involving the structure goodness of manufacturing industry, the value chain height, and the degree of environmental protection. According to the TOPSIS idea, the grey incidence coefficient is represented by the areas enclosed by two adjacent points between the evaluated object sequence and the positive and negative ideal sequences, respectively. Then, the revised G1 by standard deviation weighting method is used to assign weights to indicators, and further the close degree of grey incidence is calculated.In order to give weights to time series, the time variable is introduced to perform the dynamic evaluation of the status of manufacturing industry upgrading in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD). It is shown that from 2010 to 2016, Shanghai ranked first, Jiangsu second, Zhejiang third and Anhui last. Anhui is the weakest in terms of the status of manufacturing industry upgrading in the YRD.Based on the above conclusions, the policy recommendations for manufacturing industry upgrading in the YRD are given.

Key words: grey incidence, revised G1 by standard deviation, Yangtze River Delta(YRD), manufacturing industry upgrading, dynamic evaluation

摘要： 借助“制造业高级化”产业升级理论, 从结构优度、价值链高度、环境保护程度三个维度构建制造业产业升级评价指标体系。根据TOPSIS思想, 以被评价对象数列和理想方案指标数列两相邻点间围成图形的面积来表征关联系数, 同时采用标准差修正G1组合赋权原理对指标赋权并进一步计算灰关联相对贴近度; 通过引入时间变量并赋予时间序列权重以实现对长三角制造业产业升级动态评价。研究结果显示:2010至2016年间, 上海市排名最高, 江苏省略高于浙江省, 安徽省最低; 安徽省是长三角制造业产业升级的短板。基于上述结论, 给出长三角制造业产业升级的政策建议。

关键词: 灰关联, 标准差修正G1, 长三角, 制造业产业升级, 动态评价