Abstract: The development of technology effective supply is different in different regions and different time periods, given corresponding incentives and punishments. How to determine the boundary between incentives and punishments is especially important. Considering the feelings of incentives and punishments and adopting a fuzzy boundary between incentives and punishments, this paper is used by the perspective of fuzzy incentives and punishments. Firstly, the static evaluation is based on catastrophe progression, establishing an evaluation index system for the technology effective supply in regions. Secondly, the dynamic evaluation model of regional technology effective supply is established based on the perspective of fuzzy incentives and punishments. Using the sample of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2018, the empirical study shows that areas with high static evaluation values are subject to large incentives, and areas with low static evaluations are subject to large punishments. This paper reflects the difference of development about the effective technology supply in different regions, while the dynamic evaluation results show that there are big differences. Comparing static results to dynamic results, this paper implements fuzzy incentives and punishments, achieves incentives and punishments, which blurs the boundary between incentives and punishments, compensates for the limitations of the clear boundary of incentive and punishment in actual regional economic development, and reflects the flexibility of regional technology effective supply development.

Key words: dynamic evaluation, technology effective supply, catastrophe progression, fuzzy incentives and punishments

摘要： 不同时间不同区域技术有效供给发展状况各不相同,对其不同的发展状况进行相应的激励与惩罚。而如何确定激励与惩罚的界限显得尤为重要,考虑被评价对象的奖惩感受,采用模糊化的奖惩界限,从模糊奖惩特征的视角进行研究。首先建立区域技术有效供给发展状况的评价指标体系,基于突变级数法对其进行静态评价,其次以模糊奖惩特征的视角建立区域技术有效供给发展状况的动态评价模型,运用我国2013~2018年30个省区样本进行实证研究,结果表明:静态评价值高的区域受到奖励的幅度大,静态评价值高的区域受到惩罚的幅度大;反映了不同区域技术有效供给的发展状况各不相同,静态评价结果显示差异小,而动态评价结果显示差异较大;静态结果与动态结果比较分析,实行模糊奖惩,做到奖优罚劣,对奖惩的界限模糊化,弥补了清楚的奖惩界限在实际区域经济发展中的局限性,反映了区域技术有效供给发展的灵活性及柔性。

关键词: 动态评价, 技术有效供给, 突变级数法, 模糊奖惩特征