Abstract: By considering the interaction behaviors among the individuals, this papers present an evolutionary model of opinion formation, in which the individuals are embedded in a social network. The model supposes thats there are only two kinds of opinions for all of the individuals, including+1and-1, and takes explicitly into account that an individual’s opinion is affected by its neighbors in the social network with a probability .The analytical and simulation results indicate that there exists a special probability λ. where the expected weighted fraction of the population that holds a given opinion is constant in time. While all of the population would be in the consensus state to other λ_c, value. This work may shed some light on evaluating the opinion spreading speed in a given social network.

Key words: system engineering, opinion spreading model, social network analysis, individual interaction

摘要： 本文考虑个体间的相互作用,提出了一个基于社会网络分析的舆情传播模型。模型假设网络中每个个体的初始状态只有两种情况,并且在单位时间步内只选择一个邻居进行交流,并以概率λ接受该邻居的意见。解析结果显示存在概率λ_c使得网络中持某种观点人数比例的期望值是一个常数,而其它状态下系统中所有个体的意见都会达成一致。本模型有助于衡量某给定社会网络中舆论传播的快慢程度。

关键词: 系统工程, 舆情传播模型, 社会网络分析, 个体相互作用