Abstract: Materials commissioned reserve ways of emergency materials can effectively reduce the emergency logistics costs and realize the important action of rapid effective collecting emergency materials. Aiming at these problems caused by government to attribute to directly reserve emergency materials, including too high costs of purchase and management, occupation of a large amount of funds, material performance reduce and a large amount of mareial waste, etc, in this paper, the author structures the symbiotic relationship of government and commissioned reserve company with the aid of population symbiosis theory and analyzes the stability condition of balance point of government and commissioned reserve company based on the principle of mutually beneficial cooperation through structuring the mathematical model. Under the limited payment condition of government, how to choose the commissioned reserve company of emergency materials is resolved to provide the policy-making for government to make the emergent material reserve strategies.

Key words: stability analysis, reserve strategy, population symbiosis theory, emergency materials, commissioned reserve

摘要： 应急物资实物代储方式是有效降低应急物流成本和实现应急物资快速筹集的重要举措。针对政府直接储备应急物资所带来的采购和管理成本过高、巨额资金占用、物资性能降低以及因管理不善造成的应急物资浪费等问题,本文本着互利合作的原则,借助种群共生理论构建政府与应急物资代储企业之间的合作共生关系,并通过构建数学模型分析了政府与实物代储企业满足共生平衡点的稳定性条件,以解决政府在限制支付条件下如何选择应急物资代储企业的问题,为政府制定应急物资储备策略提供决策依据。

关键词: 稳定性分析, 储备策略, 种群共生理论, 应急物资, 代储