Abstract: In order to accurately predict the coming danger level before the emergency of sea lines of communication happens, reduce the possible loss of emergency, and improve the management capability of pre-warning and emergency in the field of sea lines of communication, a new method is presented in this paper combining historical cases analysis and higher dimension catastrophe model to deal with the complexity of pre-warning for security of sea lines of communication. Through analyzing characteristics of historical cases, we obtain the risk factors and construct one index system of pre-warning. Then, we apply generalized catastrophe model which allows a higher dimension to construct safety pre-warning model and gets the threshold value based on the data from historical cases. Lastly, we select the actual case to test the model, and it is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level.

Key words: transportation planning and management, pre-warning model of sea lines of communication, higher dimension catastrophe model, sea lines of communication

摘要： 为了在海上通道突发事件发生前给出可能的危险等级,减少海上通道突发事件造成的损失和提高海上通道预警与应急管理能力,本文针对海上通道安全突发事件的复杂性,提出一种历史案例分析与高维突变级数相结合的新方法。首先,通过对历史突发事件案例的统计分析,得出海上通道安全的主要风险源因素,并由此建立了海上通道安全预警指标体系。其次,将突变级数法在高维指标应用方面进行了推广,建立海上通道安全预警模型,并根据历史案例数据计算模型的预警阈值。最后,选取了实际案例对预警模型进行了检验,检验结果表明模型可以对海上通道突发事件进行有效预警。

关键词: 交通运输规划与管理, 海上通道预警模型, 高维突变, 海上通道