Abstract: China’s initiative of jointly building the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is fraught with difficulties and uncertainties. In order to judge evolutionary trend of the cooperation and its supporting conditions, this paper constructs a game pay-off matrix with three strategic choices, describes the procedure of the cooperation under bounded rationality with an improved replicator dynamics equation, and analyzes the stability of equilibrium solutions and their parametric conditions. A numerical simulation verified above analysis and concluded visually some helpful strategic suggestions for China: Proactively carry out demonstration projects to extricate the game from non-cooperative equilibrium; give short-term subsidies for attracting partners and get fair dealing and mutual benefit in the long run; never pursue local profits maximization and allow partners get more from individual cooperation; select favorable partners and cooperative areas according to relative competitive advantages; find the intersection of strategic interests to promote synergetic performance steadily; watch out and seize the opportunity to guide evolutionary direction in hoped-for way.

Key words: the maritime silk road, international cooperation, evolutionary game, asymmetric game with three strategic choices, stability of equilibrium point, simulation

摘要： 中国倡导共建21世纪海上丝绸之路面临诸多外部不确定因素。为了判别海上丝绸之路合作的演化方向及其实现条件,构建三元策略博弈支付矩阵,以改进复制动态方程模拟有限理性条件下合作的博弈过程,分析博弈均衡点稳定性及其参数条件。模型数值仿真验证了动态方程分析结果,根据仿真图直观给出中方策略建议:大力推进合作示范项目,突破初始不合作均衡;短期内补贴吸引合作,以达成长期公平互利局面;不追求局部利益最大化,容许对方项目收益高于已方;根据博弈地位相对优势,选择有利合作对象与领域;寻找彼此战略利益交汇点,确保长期协同合作绩效;关注国际环境扰动,抓住机遇引导有利演化方向。

关键词: 海上丝绸之路, 国际合作, 演化博弈, 三策略博弈, 均衡点稳定性, 仿真